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euroke 22 januari 2020 15:35

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quote:
nat1966 schreef op 22 januari 2020 13:53:
amai lekker bloed rood

Vind ik ook altijd zo raar. Positief nieuws geeft ook vaak een omgekeerde koersbeweging. Zijn het dan enkel die speelvogels (eendagsvliegen) die op die lage koersen al winst nemen?

Wat ik bij Biocartis al vaak gezien heb, is...dat tegen het sluiten van de beurs de koers even op veert.

Ik moet eerlijk zeggen dat niet altijd de onderbouw snap.
Wie kan wat meer uitleg geven? Of zijn mening gewoon.

Flatlander 22 januari 2020 16:11

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I don't want to come off like a chest thumping American but I have a question for those of you that have owned European Biopharma stocks. Do you believe the stock would have done better if it listed or co-listed on one of the U.S. exchanges? When I look at Galapagos and Qiagen their stock share price seems to have benefited from the exposure by listing on the Nasdaq or NYSE. I know such listings come with considerable regulatory filing headaches but to some extent their is additional exposure/visibility that may aid in worldwide launch of product. Not that BCART will need to do any fundraising in the near future, I have to ask whether an IPO on a US exchange might provide a lucrative way to gain additional exposure.

FL

ejvdheuvel 22 januari 2020 16:29

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Good question, not easy to answer. The answer largely depends on what the 'maturity level' and partnering capabilities of the EU based company and its pipeline(s) are, I would say. This article, although in a general setting, may help to think further:
www.startupgrind.com/blog/the-3-key-d...
EJ

[verwijderd] 22 januari 2020 18:25

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Analiste Lenny Van Steenhuyse van KBC Securities is te spreken over het nieuws dat Biocartis BCART de samenwerking met AstraZeneca opvoert. 'We zijn blij om te zien dat Biocartis meer met AstraZeneca gaat samenwerken in de competitieve markt voor vloeibare biopsietesten. De overeenkomst maakt gezamenlijke projecten mogelijk van op Idylla gebaseerde testen ter ondersteuning van de farmaproducten van AstraZeneca. Het eerste project in dit kader is een vloeibare biopsiestudie'.
Biocartis en AstraZeneca werkten al samen rond biomarker testing voor longkankerpatiënten.

Flatlander 22 januari 2020 18:32

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EJ

Thanks for the interesting read. Fact of the matter is that BCART has not had difficulty raising funds thru either the equity offerings or the convertible. Since JnJ and Invesco are major shareholders, they have clearly had no trouble accessing cash from N. America. The point that the article makes about developing skills/partnerships to sell to the worldwide market is interesting. In the case of BCART this seams to be out of necessity. They have to sell into worldwide markets to achieve the market breadth necessary to gain profitability. In the US a company can become soundly profitable in the U.S. before having to expand internationally. In the case of healthcare, some of the profitability might be attributed to a bloated pricing/fee structure that no other country would tolerate.

Some of the articles I posted last week indicate that some of the molecular diagnostic guidelines have been written to favor NGS methods and hence benefit Illumina, Fisher, etc. I wonder if more of an international stock market presence would help gain traction in getting guidelines more beneficial to BCART. For instance, having Idylla recognized as a chief method of resolving failed NGS tests could be huge. This type of medical practice leverage is difficult for a small European company.

FL

Gijpie 22 januari 2020 18:34

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Flat For some it’s positiv to have a 2nd listing for some it’s negativ . You gave examples who benefited but take for example Celyad the share price broke a few times out during Euronext houres and was heavily pulled down once America opend

[verwijderd] 22 januari 2020 20:31

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UIteindelijk toch zeer teleurstellend hoe de koers ontwikkelde vandaag. Het gaat toch zo moeizaam allemaal.

Flatlander 22 januari 2020 22:50

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quote:
Laup 4 schreef op 22 januari 2020 18:25:
Analiste Lenny Van Steenhuyse van KBC Securities is te spreken over het nieuws dat Biocartis BCART de samenwerking met AstraZeneca opvoert. 'We zijn blij om te zien dat Biocartis meer met AstraZeneca gaat samenwerken in de competitieve markt voor vloeibare biopsietesten. De overeenkomst maakt gezamenlijke projecten mogelijk van op Idylla gebaseerde testen ter ondersteuning van de farmaproducten van AstraZeneca. Het eerste project in dit kader is een vloeibare biopsiestudie'.
Biocartis en AstraZeneca werkten al samen rond biomarker testing voor longkankerpatiënten.

CDx partnerships are probably the most important niche for Idylla. Generally the drug has a very specific molecular target. Thus, while NGS may provide a more comprehensive analysis of the entire genome, it provides a lot of extraneous information that is not relevant to the question Will the patient benefit from this drug? More importantly, the NGS report often requires a genetic scientist to interpret.

This type of focused question on a specific molecular target is very conducive to the type of analyses performed by Idylla. Combine the simplicity, with the speed, cost advantage, and decreased potential for inconclusive results and I believe there is a lot of market potential upon receipt of diagnostic approvals.

FL

dany 1964 22 januari 2020 22:58

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CDx partnerships zijn waarschijnlijk de belangrijkste niche voor Idylla. Over het algemeen de drug heeft een zeer specifieke moleculaire doelwit. Dus, terwijl NGS een meer uitgebreide analyse van het hele genoom kunnen voorzien, biedt het een veel irrelevante informatie die niet aan de vraag relevant zal de patiënt profiteren van deze drug? Wat nog belangrijker is, het rapport NGS vereist vaak een genetische wetenschapper te interpreteren.

Dit soort gerichte vraag over een specifieke moleculaire doelwit is zeer bevorderlijk voor het soort analyses van Idylla. Combineer de eenvoud, met de snelheid, kostenvoordeel, en een verminderde kans op povere resultaten en ik geloof dat er een heleboel potentiële markt na ontvangst van diagnostische goedkeuringen

dany 1964 22 januari 2020 22:59

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ben benieuwd naar morgen ,je zou toch denken groen morgen ,maar kijk naar vandaag gewoon rood achter mijn inziens mooi nieuws

Flatlander 23 januari 2020 05:42

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Nat

It was good news but the market as not ascribed a lot of market movement to CDx announcements. They tend not to provide any financial information, so it is hard to value the partnership.

Short term moves in the market are impossible to predict. I'm hopeful that the channel from 5.50 to 7.00 gets filled quickly with minor pullbacks like that observed on Jan 14-15th.
I find it more productive to focus longer term on the list of milestones in BL's previous post.

FL

brightlight 23 januari 2020 10:00

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quote:
Flatlander schreef op 22 januari 2020 16:11:
I don't want to come off like a chest thumping American but I have a question for those of you that have owned European Biopharma stocks. Do you believe the stock would have done better if it listed or co-listed on one of the U.S. exchanges? When I look at Galapagos and Qiagen their stock share price seems to have benefited from the exposure by listing on the Nasdaq or NYSE. I know such listings come with considerable regulatory filing headaches but to some extent their is additional exposure/visibility that may aid in worldwide launch of product. Not that BCART will need to do any fundraising in the near future, I have to ask whether an IPO on a US exchange might provide a lucrative way to gain additional exposure.

FL

FL
After looking into this matter a bit more in detail, I see that at the moment Biocartis is neither over- nor underpriced compared to most American (Molecular) Diagnostics Companies. You could say it is perfectly priced for the growthpath it is currently on. A price/sales of between 9 to 10 seems very reasonable for a company that in 2019 grew its sales figures in Euro terms by 33% (I come by this number by translating the sales volumes into Euros, because we don't have the financial report of FY19 yet). U.S. diagnostics companies (Veracyte (11.95 on 36.05%), Natera (10.07 on a meager 11.02%), Invitae (9.38 on 32.63%) to give just a few examples) sport roughly the same multiples. This being said, the current Bcart shareprice doesn't take into account the growth acceleration that we expect in the coming years (very likely as soon as this year). This re-acceleration should be logical because the 2019 numbers include the sales miss of H1 2019.
BL

dany 1964 23 januari 2020 10:51

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zakken heel goed door

Flatlander 23 januari 2020 15:07

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quote:
nat1966 schreef op 23 januari 2020 10:51:
After looking into this matter a bit more in detail, I see that at the moment Biocartis is neither over- nor underpriced compared to most American (Molecular) Diagnostics Companies. You could say it is perfectly priced for the growthpath it is currently on. A price/sales of between 9 to 10 seems very reasonable for a company that in 2019 grew its sales figures in Euro terms by 33% (I come by this number by translating the sales volumes into Euros, because we don't have the financial report of FY19 yet). U.S. diagnostics companies (Veracyte (11.95 on 36.05%), Natera (10.07 on a meager 11.02%), Invitae (9.38 on 32.63%) to give just a few examples) sport roughly the same multiples. This being said, the current Bcart shareprice doesn't take into account the growth acceleration that we expect in the coming years (very likely as soon as this year). This re-acceleration should be logical because the 2019 numbers include the sales miss of H1 2019.

BL
I agree when you consider the valuation peer group as the broad MDx oncology group. However, I think BCART's technology is disruptive to a large extent since it automates and reduces costs and time. Usually innovators or disruptors are values at a premium. I think it can be rightfully argued that BCART has to grow to a larger footprint before such a disruptor label can be legitimized.

As much as anything, I'm probably complaining because I have convinced some family and friends to purchase BCART and the process is cumbersome. They have to open a new brokerage account at IBKR and get global trading privileges. They also have to convert currency before they can purchase shares.

Unlike a lot of investments BCARTS business model is pretty simple, the milestones and period over which they should become profitable is well defined and the addressable market is quite large. In my mind, these factors make BCART a worthy speculation.

FL

[verwijderd] 23 januari 2020 17:02

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De doelstellingen in maart zijn belangrijk, tot dan zullen we nog een maandje geduld moeten hebben.Onderstaande link vanaf minuut 3 over Biocartis:

kanaalz.knack.be/beurs/z-beurs-22-01-...

brightlight 23 januari 2020 17:41

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quote:
Flatlander schreef op 23 januari 2020 15:07:
[...]

BL
I agree when you consider the valuation peer group as the broad MDx oncology group. However, I think BCART's technology is disruptive to a large extent since it automates and reduces costs and time. Usually innovators or disruptors are values at a premium. I think it can be rightfully argued that BCART has to grow to a larger footprint before such a disruptor label can be legitimized.

As much as anything, I'm probably complaining because I have convinced some family and friends to purchase BCART and the process is cumbersome. They have to open a new brokerage account at IBKR and get global trading privileges. They also have to convert currency before they can purchase shares.

Unlike a lot of investments BCARTS business model is pretty simple, the milestones and period over which they should become profitable is well defined and the addressable market is quite large. In my mind, these factors make BCART a worthy speculation.

FL

FL,
I know it can be frustrating at times, but if you stick with what you believe in, it usually pays off in the end, at least that is my experience. As you rightly say, short term movements are just noise. The market simply still has to wake up to the growth potential Bcart harbors. Most investors simply follow the herd. The herd has not yet arrived at Bcart, but it will. March 5 could well be a wake up call. Keep the faith!
BL

DRTVR 23 januari 2020 19:49

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Wat Flatlander hier schreef begrijp ik niet: “I agree when you consider the valuation peer group as the broad MDx oncology group. However, I think BCART's technology is disruptive to a large extent since it automates and reduces costs and time. Usually innovators or disruptors are values at a premium. I think it can be rightfully argued that BCART has to grow to a larger footprint before such a disruptor label can be legitimized. “
Voelt iemand zich geroepen om dit wat toe te lichten, bedankt.

brightlight 23 januari 2020 21:04

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quote:
brightlight schreef op 23 januari 2020 21:00:
[...]
Hij bedoelt daarmee dat geen enkele van de bedrijven uit de sector van Bcart (Moleculaire Diagnostiek in Oncologie) beschikt over een product dat de markt totaal op zijn kop kan zetten. Voorbeelden van disruptor-bedrijven zijn Facebook, Google, Amazon of disruptor producten zoals de I-phone, de Tesla om maar enkele van de bekendste te noemen. Bcart beschikt dus wel over een product dat potentieel disruptief kan zijn.
Om deze reden verdient Bcart in principe een hogere multiple (hogere P/S) dan zijn sectorgenoten. FL zegt dat disruptieve bedrijven in de V.S. altijd hoger gewaardeerd worden (met een premie bovenop de normale beurswaarde) en begrijpt niet dat dit momenteel nog niet voor Bcart het geval is. FL zegt dat de marktpenetratie van Idylla momenteel misschien nog iets te klein is om het disruptor label te verdienen, maar dat is ongetwijfeld een kwestie van tijd.
BL

[verwijderd] 23 januari 2020 21:25

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Nog een nieuwe studie met Idylla.
NCT04236102: KEBI-Cyto Study - Use of the Biocartis Idylla
"Use of the Biocartis Idylla ™ Platform for the Detection of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor, B-RAF and K-RAS Proto-oncogene Mutations in Liquid Based Cytology Specimens and Blood Plasma Samples From Patients With Non Small Cell Lung Carcinoma and Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma"

clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04236102

DRTVR 23 januari 2020 22:57

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Bedankt voor de uitleg BL, precies een aantal mensen die kennis van zaken hebben.

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