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ASML in 2015

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altijdwat schreef op 17 juni 2015 13:57:

@elf : hebben ze je, voor wat betreft de jaarresultaten, ooit teleurgesteld dan.....?
Dat werd niet in mijn bericht gesteld noch gesuggereerd en is dus ook niet aan de orde want de vraag was of er sprake was van ´overvalued´ en dat kan gemakkelijk staande worden gehouden en is bovendien het vertrouwen vooralsnog niet in enige mate beschaamd.
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SNSN schreef op 17 juni 2015 14:03:

Hi 'elf',

You probably forgot that current so-called "winstverwachtingen" (and price formation expectations) are still based (i.e. are conditional) on "tax-advantages" which 'asml' received in the NL & EU.

"....Last year ASML made a profit of 1.3 billion euros and paid 77 million to income tax. That is roughly 6 percent, while the income tax in the Netherlands is 25 percent. In 2012 and 2013 the company paid less than 1 percent of income tax in the Netherlands....".

That is almost ~0.25 billion euros less than 'asml' had to pay last year ....

"....ASML also makes use of the so called innovation-box tax scheme in the Netherlands, which aims to stimulate inventions and patents in the Netherlands. A company that makes profit from an innovation only hast to pay 5 percent income tax, instead of 25 percent. Because ASML makes use of both this tax scheme and the Belgium tax scheme, it cost the Dutch tax Authorities hundreds of millions of dollars over a number of years...."


So far, it's the other NL "tax-payers" who actually heavily contribute to the 'asml' future "winstverwachtingen", dividends, share "buy-back programs" contributing to "bubble pumping" (which may in this case look like actually "price manipulation").

The prob is really high that it can't stay for a long time any more.... The reg would certainly interfere ..., resulting in well predicted consequences for highly overvalued stock.

PS. As for today business, the crucial (decision) point at the moment is M-(95.65)... We are testing it right now....checking the way towards S1=95.13 (see post above)

Dat soort overwegingen kan uiteraard in in aanmerking worden genomen doch wat andere taxpayers zouden moeten ´lijden´ in deze redenering kan een belegger als zodanig geheel koud laten en bovendien is deze situatie al zodanig lang bekend en gedoogd en bovendien niet al te zeer nadelig voor betrokkenen dat op korte o zelfs langere termijn enige verandering valt te verwachten terwijl dat bovendien tot gevolg zou kunnen hebben dat ASML gewoon vertrekt en dan binnen een oogwenk een dankbare gastheer elders in de wereld zou vinden.
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PS. Yes, market is testing critical level ~470.... There was a small change in aex dynamics - the "non-structural" mechanisms (just effects of "financing currency") started to slightly dominate since ~12.30 (indicating at low market - under the PP, negative d-sentiment - an increase in a prob for further correction...., even if Greece issues assumed to be not so important at the moment...<-- that's just how the market, i.e. both stock & FX together, "thinks" right now...)
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elf schreef op 17 juni 2015 14:22:

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Dat soort overwegingen kan uiteraard in in aanmerking worden genomen doch wat andere taxpayers zouden moeten ´lijden´ in deze redenering kan een belegger als zodanig geheel koud laten en bovendien is deze situatie al zodanig lang bekend en gedoogd en bovendien niet al te zeer nadelig voor betrokkenen dat op korte o zelfs langere termijn enige verandering valt te verwachten terwijl dat bovendien tot gevolg zou kunnen hebben dat ASML gewoon vertrekt en dan binnen een oogwenk een dankbare gastheer elders in de wereld zou vinden.
Not sure you fully realize that because of asml "tax-advantages" (see post above)

"....it's the other NL "tax-payers" who actually heavily contribute to the 'asml' future "winstverwachtingen", dividends, share "buy-back programs" contributing to "bubble pumping" (which may in this case look like actually "price manipulation")...."

it is the NL-state that is actually paying the dividends to (private) asml-investors....(though, you may say "partially")

While the "share buy-back" programs (via cash provided directly by the state via "asml tax-advantages"), directly contributing to the stock-price formation - bubble pumping, may be considered as a direct "price manipulation".... with all (possible) consequences....

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SNSN schreef op 17 juni 2015 15:24:

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Not sure you fully realize that because of asml "tax-advantages" (see post above)

"....it's the other NL "tax-payers" who actually heavily contribute to the 'asml' future "winstverwachtingen", dividends, share "buy-back programs" contributing to "bubble pumping" (which may in this case look like actually "price manipulation")...."

it is the NL-state that is actually paying the dividends to (private) asml-investors....(though, you may say "partially")

While the "share buy-back" programs (via cash provided directly by the state via "asml tax-advantages"), directly contributing to the stock-price formation - bubble pumping, may be considered as a direct "price manipulation".... with all (possible) consequences....

Niets is eeuwig maar zo lang de koers en de verwachtingen nog aanleiding zijn tot aankopen die deze verwachtingen wellicht niet te eniger tijd zullen belonen en de regelmatige koersstijgingen zich blijven voordoen lijkt het me nuttig daarin mee te lopen en dat zal mijn tijd waarschijnlijk wel duren(zie andere forums...)
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elf schreef op 17 juni 2015 16:00:

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Niets is eeuwig maar zo lang de koers en de verwachtingen nog aanleiding zijn tot aankopen die deze verwachtingen wellicht niet te eniger tijd zullen belonen en de regelmatige koersstijgingen zich blijven voordoen lijkt het me nuttig daarin mee te lopen en dat zal mijn tijd waarschijnlijk wel duren(zie andere forums...)
The prob is reasonably high that the NL-state would need to stop paying "public contributions" to private asml-dividends....

The same is about "price manipulations" via "share buy-back" programs.... As you know, it has nothing to do with the "innovation-box tax" (used by asml for tax reduction) aiming just ".... to stimulate investments and patents in the NL..." Even a person with a very bright imagination wouldn't be able to see a "share buy-back" program .... as a tool "stimulating investments and patents in the Netherlands".

You know what it means for highly overvalued fund...

So, a ticket to the south is actually ready...., though the schedule is not fully determined yet (as big guys still need to discharge their large "longs" in bubble-stock .... locking retailers/clients at high - see old posts)
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SNSN schreef op 17 juni 2015 17:10:

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The prob is reasonably high that the NL-state would need to stop paying "public contributions" to private asml-dividends....

The same is about "price manipulations" via "share buy-back" programs.... As you know, it has nothing to do with the "innovation-box tax" (used by asml for tax reduction) aiming just ".... to stimulate investments and patents in the NL..." Even a person with a very bright imagination wouldn't be able to see a "share buy-back" program .... as a tool "stimulating investments and patents in the Netherlands".

You know what it means for highly overvalued fund...

So, a ticket to the south is actually ready...., though the schedule is not fully determined yet (as big guys still need to discharge their large "longs" in bubble-stock .... locking retailers/clients at high - see old posts)
De desbetreffende signalen zullen hopelijk worden opgemerkt.
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elf schreef op 17 juni 2015 17:31:

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De desbetreffende signalen zullen hopelijk worden opgemerkt.
Yes, there are many of them already, both qual & quant (lt/mt-bearish-reversal signals - see last weeks posts).

Just to remind you a few of them: i) "bearish engulfing" under the main r-zone (weekly chart), ii) "mt-triple-top" at the main r-zone, iii) serious increased in dynamic mt-volatility - up to ~20% ("sigma"=~10%) - at a flat "dynamic drift" --> indication of mt/lt "top forming", iv) etc., etc.

Also a "research" (in possible "not-equal competition" due to "state contributions" to private dividends, and a use of "innovation-box tax" advantages for "price manipulations" via "share buy-back" programs not related to "innovations and patents" stimulation) can't be excluded....

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Alle signalen mogen dan in een bepaalde richting wijzen en de ellende op dat schiereiland van drie maal niets gen positieve invloed hebben op de desbetreffende hersencellen van beleggers; de woorden van oma wijzen toch vrij duidelijk op een herstel van betekenis terwijl de indruk is gevestigd dat de idioten in Den Haag zijn gaan inzien dat een andere koers op zijn minst een begin van vertrouwen kan wekken in een richting die niet alleen het consumentenvertrouwen wat verstevigt maar er ook al tevoren toe schijnt te hebben geleid dat de altijd gelijk hebbende consument meer is gaan besteden al zou dat maar aan vervangingsvraag zijn.

En met de Grand Départ in het vooruitzicht kan iedereen elke dag(behalve op de rustdagen en de vlakke étappes zelf weer drie weken waarnemen hoe lastig het is om een berg op te komen maar nog veel lastiger om er weer af te komen om dan uiteindelijk en veelal met vallen en opstaan te begrijpen dat je beter een ander vak had kunnen kiezen.....
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alex2448 schreef op 18 juni 2015 12:36:

Varoufakis de man die de euro vernietigd
Dat is eerder voorbehouden aan dat zoodje ongeregeld in Brussel want Variofocus is zoals dezer dagen opgemerkt een oud Volkswagentje met drie wielen tegen een gepantserde Mercedes met James Bond-achtige vernietigingsapparatuur in de carrosserie.
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ASML 95,28 17:35 96,90 18:35 +1,62 +1,70% (WS)

Maar waardoor is me onduidelijk.....
altijdwat
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Zo, vanochtend nog een order ingelegd voor 93,50 euro en nog gekregen ook....wat een rare dagen. Met veel volatiliteit kun je soms leuke aankopen doen....hahaha
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altijdwat schreef op 18 juni 2015 21:18:

Zo, vanochtend nog een order ingelegd voor 93,50 euro en nog gekregen ook....wat een rare dagen. Met veel volatiliteit kun je soms leuke aankopen doen....hahaha
En met Randstad is ASML het meest volatiel(voorheen was dat Arcelor)

En verder :

Nasdaq dankzij Fed richting nieuw record

NEW YORK (AFN) - De Nasdaq-index sloot donderdag dankzij de Federal Reserve op een nieuwe recordstand. De Amerikaanse centrale bank liet woensdagavond doorschemeren zijn steunbeleid door te zullen zetten ondanks signalen dat de Amerikaanse economie aan kracht wint.
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elf schreef op 18 juni 2015 23:41:

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NEW YORK (AFN) - De Nasdaq-index sloot donderdag dankzij de Federal Reserve op een nieuwe recordstand. De Amerikaanse centrale bank liet woensdagavond doorschemeren zijn steunbeleid door te zullen zetten ondanks signalen dat de Amerikaanse economie aan kracht wint.
Just signals on... "economy strengs" (U.S. Economy at a Glance: Perspective from the BEA Accounts):

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):

1st quarter 2015: -0.7 percent
4th quarter 2014: 2.2 percent

Quarterly data: Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.


That's just fully consistent with the eur/usd-rates dynamics (rising since Mar 2015) indicating markets' expectations for a delay in (basic) interest rates rise ....

Actually that's one of the reasons for "non-structural" mechanisms (effect of "financing currency") dominating (last days frequently) in 'aex' .... (otherwise, possible "grexit" expect. would lead to a dominant role of "structural" drivers in stock markets)

PS. As for 'asml', after yesterday "dragonfly doji" (just google it) active traders are (partially) covering their "shorts"..., though still looking for other indications for possible (current) sub-trend break.... before going long.... (but, take care - this is just about "very active" st-strategies, so far not for lt/mt-, and other "investors")

Pivot point: PP=94.68
Resistance: R1=96.24; R2=97.11
Support: S1=93.70

So, the d-sentiment is positive (we are well above the PP-line, and stay there after the first hour). The current trend indicator - is the "falling-top-line" determining the st-down(sub)trend since May 28. It's around ~96.70 / ~96.25 at opening / closing.... (very active profs will certainly try to break it upwards...., so that be aware opening new "st-longs" --> not to be locked up just above the "indicator")

But, take care - this is just about st-horizons...(just really active trading)
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SNSN schreef op 19 juni 2015 11:18:

[...]

Just signals on... "economy strengs" (U.S. Economy at a Glance: Perspective from the BEA Accounts):

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):

1st quarter 2015: -0.7 percent
4th quarter 2014: 2.2 percent

Quarterly data: Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.


That's just fully consistent with the eur/usd-rates dynamics (rising since Mar 2015) indicating markets' expectations for a delay in (basic) interest rates rise ....

Actually that's one of the reasons for "non-structural" mechanisms (effect of "financing currency") dominating (last days frequently) in 'aex' .... (otherwise, possible "grexit" expect. would lead to a dominant role of "structural" drivers in stock markets)

PS. As for 'asml', after yesterday "dragonfly doji" (just google it) active traders are (partially) covering their "shorts"..., though still looking for other indications for possible (current) sub-trend break.... before going long.... (but, take care - this is just about "very active" st-strategies, so far not for lt/mt-, and other "investors")

Pivot point: PP=94.68
Resistance: R1=96.24; R2=97.11
Support: S1=93.70

So, the d-sentiment is positive (we are well above the PP-line, and stay there after the first hour). The current trend indicator - is the "falling-top-line" determining the st-down(sub)trend since May 28. It's around ~96.70 / ~96.25 at opening / closing.... (very active profs will certainly try to break it upwards...., so that be aware opening new "st-longs" --> not to be locked up just above the "indicator")

But, take care - this is just about st-horizons...(just really active trading)
Vanzelfsprekend zijn er partijen die gebruik maken van het beroerde sentiment van de afgelopen dagen en dusdoende vrij simpel gebruik maken van de huidige angstcultuur doch de gemakkelijke rebound van ASML zal waarschijnlijk leiden tot een nieuwe bovengrens en dan tot naar schatting 110.00 terwijl de stilte van het bestuur eigenlijk wel veelzeggend te noemen zijn en het nauwelijks is voor te stellen dat een nieuwe verkoopserie en dan voor hogere prijzen dan de eerste wordt bekend gemaakt.

En mede gelet op de oustanding positie voorlsnog als wereldleider in de sector en misschien binnen afzienbare tijd zelfs monopolist maakt alle vormen van berekeningen of methodes voor welke voorspelling ook.

Alleen is jammer dat geen split-up de mogelijkheden beperkt.
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For lt-horizons (lt/mt-investors):

take care - the (highly overvalued/overcrowded) asml-train has well determined "strategic direction" --> to the south.... (see old posts for details)

Again, don't forget that (if proved) improper use of (actually public funds) would need to be returned back.... with some "multiplier"....., and certain consequences for a stock.
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PS. To make it more clear for mt/lt-investors, seems has sense to remind that since Jan 2015:

- the lt/mt "dynamic volatility" rose by factor of about ~5-6 (from "sigma"=~1.5%-2.0% before Jan 2015, and "sigma"=~10%-12% since Jan 2015)

- the lt/mt "dynamic drift" is just completely "flat", indicating there is NO any lt/mt trend...

As you probably know, this is just quant indication for lt/mt "top-forming"...., which (because of well known reasons) usually takes much more time than "bottom-forming"

Thus, as there is actually NO any clear trend for a half a year already (dynamic drift is just flat), the pure technical "st-sub-trends", triggered usually by the profs and supported by active trend following strategies ("trend is your friend" ..., even if it's a "fake trend"), may mistakenly be considered (by lt/mt-investors) as a "beginning" of "new" mt/lt-uptrend..., though, it's just a trivial part of just "lt/mt-volatility" (which is usually very high at the "top-forming").

One of the reasons that "top-forming" usually takes so much time at a very high volatility ("sigma" >> 2%) is that the large long positions (opened a long ago) must be closed at "high" (usually under the main lt/mt r-zones)....

Thus, "big lt/mt-sellers" (at top-forming) must sometime become also "st-buyers" (with smaller volume) generating "fake sub-trends" and attempting to keep prices at "high" as long as they need to fully discharge heavy "lt/mt-longs".... They repeate this "procedure" - just "return optimization - again and again..., trying to "catch & lock" retailers, clients - i.e. "new investors" ready to step in at "lt/mt-high"..., i.e. actually at the top of pyramided. All these pure technical st-trading stuff (often just comp-automated) generate st-sub-trends "up & down" (just under the main r-zone).... resulting just in a high volatility on mt/lt-horizons at a flat dynamic drift....
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Heren, allemaal mooi hier maar het is een Nederlands forum graag dus ook Nederlands te communiceren. Al dat Engels er tussendoor om gek van te worden. Ik sla het over want ik heb al moeite met het Engels van de Bold and The beautiful laat staan technisch Engels op dit niveau

Thanks
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