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nine_inch_nerd 15 december 2023 12:58

Het is een visie..

finance.yahoo.com/news/where-amd-stoc...

Where Will AMD Stock Be in 3 Years?
Fri, December 15, 2023 at 11:25 AM GMT+1

The past three years have been a mixed bag for Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) investors as the stock's terrific 2021 rally was followed by a big crash in 2022 -- thanks to a broader sell-off in tech stocks -- but the good news is that the semiconductor specialist is set to end 2023 on a high note with gains of more than 112% this year.

Neutrals may be surprised to see this big rally in AMD stock this year, considering its tepid financial performance. After all, the company was hit hard by the crash in personal computer (PC) sales, and it failed to take advantage of the fast-growing demand for data center graphics cards on account of the growing deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) servers.

However, investors seem upbeat about AMD's prospects going into 2024. The stock surged 16% in the past week after unveiling a new line of AI chips on Dec. 6, which it says have been selected by major cloud service providers for deployment in their AI servers. These new chips, no doubt, could give AMD's growth a nice boost considering the booming demand and short supply of AI-related chips.

But will AMD's advent into the AI chip market be enough to help drive a sustained rally in the company's stock over the next three years? Let's find out.

Data center GPUs could be the next big growth driver for AMD

The market for data center graphics processing units (GPUs) heated up significantly in 2023, and Nvidia made the most of this opportunity with its H100 and A100 graphics cards. Nvidia's A100 became a hot commodity when it emerged that it was deployed by the thousands to train ChatGPT, the popular chatbot from OpenAI.

The raging popularity of ChatGPT triggered a race between tech giants, governments, and start-ups to get their hands on the most powerful GPUs available to train AI models. Nvidia has been the prime beneficiary of this demand, as its recent results indicate. However, Nvidia hasn't been able to produce enough chips to satisfy the huge customer demand. The waiting period for its H100 and A100 data center GPUs runs as high as 52 weeks, which means that customers need to look elsewhere to procure more chips.

So, it was not surprising to see AMD pointing out last week that the likes of Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta Platforms will be adopting its MI300X and MI300A accelerators for training AI models and also for tackling AI inferencing workloads. Microsoft, for instance, has already deployed a new cloud instance powered by the MI300X, while Oracle plans to use this processor to power its upcoming generative AI service.

Meanwhile, data center infrastructure providers such as Dell, Lenovo, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise will be adding the MI300 accelerators to their server systems. All this explains why AMD CEO Lisa Su said the company anticipates at least $2 billion in revenue from sales of data center GPUs next year. Su points out that AMD secured enough supply and has a strong customer lineup that could help it generate more than $2 billion in sales from its new chips.

That points toward a significant ramp-up when compared to the $400 million revenue the company expects to generate from selling data center GPUs in the current quarter. What's more, Su claims that AMD's chip can equal Nvidia's H100 as far as training AI models is concerned. She also added that the MI300X could perform better at AI inferencing, which refers to the process of deploying the trained model to make predictions or solve problems.

The AMD CEO is also quite bullish about the state of the AI chip market. Su now sees an addressable market worth $400 billion for AI data center accelerators by 2027, up substantially from the prior estimate of $150 billion. Nvidia is currently the dominant player in this space, with an estimated market share of 80%. However, if AMD could corner even 10% of this market after five years, its revenue from the data center GPU business alone could hit $40 billion.

That would be significantly higher than the $2 billion revenue the company is estimating from this segment in 2024. Also, the chipmaker expects to finish 2023 with $22.6 billion in revenue, which means that even a small share of the data center GPU market can double its top line in five years.

Analysts anticipate AMD's revenue to increase at a pace of 16% in 2024 and 2025, which would be a nice improvement following this year's estimated decline of 4%. This is evident from the chart below.

Assuming AMD's top line jumps 16% in 2026 as well, its annual revenue could hit almost $36 billion after three years. AMD currently has a price-to-sales ratio of 10. Multiplying that with its projected sales of $36 billion points toward a market cap of $360 billion after three years, pointing toward a 62% jump from current levels.

However, AMD may be able to deliver even stronger gains by clocking faster revenue growth, which could lead the market to reward it with a higher sales multiple. As such, investors looking to buy an without having to pay through their noses may want to buy AMD before it .

nine_inch_nerd 17 december 2023 13:04

Wordt nog eens duidelijk gemaakt, dat AMD erg duur is momenteel.

Better Tech Stock: AMD vs. Microsoft
Sun, December 17, 2023 at 12:10 PM GMT+1

Moreover, Microsoft hit $63 billion in free cash flow this year compared to AMD's just over $1 billion. Microsoft is not only the cheaper stock, but the more reliable option, as it has the funds to overcome potential headwinds and continue investing in its business.

finance.yahoo.com/news/better-tech-st...

closer 17 december 2023 14:35

Dus?

nine_inch_nerd 17 december 2023 19:03

quote:
closer schreef op 17 december 2023 14:35:
Dus?

Een attentiepunt. ;)
De omzet zal komende jaren stijgen als we de CEO moeten geloven, maar de hoge K/W maakt het aandeel momenteel duur.
Je ziet het bij meerdere chippers, maar bij AMD zeer.
Een correctie kan plaatsvinden...
Ik neem het mee en blijf 't volgen en heb ruimte bij een correctie bij te kopen.
Verwacht op de langere termijn toch meer.

closer 17 december 2023 21:20

quote:
nine_inch_nerd schreef op 17 december 2023 19:03:
Je ziet het bij meerdere chippers, maar bij AMD zeer.
Een correctie kan plaatsvinden...

Klopt, AMD staat bekend als een volatiel aandeel.
Vandaar de waarschuwing van ikkedus (eerder heb ik hem ook moeten afremmen :-).
Maar zelfs met twee-stappen-vooruit-en-eentje-achteruit een heerlijk fonds. Dus zodra wij ons terugtrekken om van onze winsten te genieten, mag jij voortaan die waarschuwing doorgeven!

nine_inch_nerd 18 december 2023 11:31

Algemeen/overall verhaal. Voor geïnteresseerden.

Nvidia: Implied upside of 128%

The stock-split stock with the greatest upside potential in the new year, according to one Wall Street analyst, is semiconductor company Nvidia. Analyst Hans Mosesmann of Rosenblatt Securities has a lofty $1,100 price target on shares of Nvidia. Based on its closing price of $483.50 on Dec. 14, this represents a potential gain to shareholders of 128% in 2024.

Mosesmann's optimism for the top-performing megacap stock of 2023 has to do with its role as the infrastructure backbone of the artificial intelligence (AI) movement. Nvidia's A100 and H100 graphics processing units (GPUs) account for between 80% and 90% of the share of GPUs currently deployed in high-compute data centers.

With chip fabrication company Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing looking to potentially double its chip of wafer on substrate capacity over the next year, the expectation is that Nvidia's ability to meet strong demand for its A100 and H100 chips will improve. More units to sell should increase Nvidia's sales and profits next year.

However, there's another side to this story. More specifically, Nvidia's doubling sales in its current fiscal year is almost exclusively the result of exceptional pricing power caused by AI-GPU scarcity. As it increases its own production, and new competitors enter the arena -- Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) -- there's a good likelihood that Nvidia's pricing power and gross margin will take a hit.

AMD introduced its MI300X GPU for AI-accelerated data centers in June, but expects to ramp up production in 2024. Meanwhile, Intel intends to bring its Falcon Shores GPU to market in 2025, which will be a direct competitor to Nvidia. Things may be as good as they're going to get for Nvidia.

The last thing to note about next-big-thing investments is that they have a strong tendency to form early stage bubbles. Investors have overestimated the demand or uptake of every major trend for the past three decades, and I doubt AI is going to be the exception. This makes reaching Mosesmann's $1,100 price target for Nvidia highly unlikely.

finance.yahoo.com/news/3-stock-split-...

Goldilock 18 december 2023 11:57

quote:
nine_inch_nerd schreef op 17 december 2023 19:03:
[...]

Een attentiepunt. ;)
De omzet zal komende jaren stijgen als we de CEO moeten geloven, maar de hoge K/W maakt het aandeel momenteel duur.
Je ziet het bij meerdere chippers, maar bij AMD zeer.

Voor nu inderdaad een hoge P/E, maar we moeten kijken naar wat mogelijk de E in de komende jaren zal zijn. Met alle ontwikkelingen in AI en cloud in het vooruitzicht zal AMD, als runner up van Nvidia, een mooie groei gaan laten zien de komende jaren. Voor nu wat duur, maar zoveel potentieel en groei vooruitzichten dat we over een paar jaar zeggen: 'had ik het maar onder de $150,- aangekocht toen dat nog kon'.. We gaan het zien!

4finance 18 december 2023 12:12

quote:
Goldilock schreef op 18 december 2023 11:57:
[...]

Voor nu inderdaad een hoge P/E, maar we moeten kijken naar wat mogelijk de E in de komende jaren zal zijn. Met alle ontwikkelingen in AI en cloud in het vooruitzicht zal AMD, als runner up van Nvidia, een mooie groei gaan laten zien de komende jaren. Voor nu wat duur, maar zoveel potentieel en groei vooruitzichten dat we over een paar jaar zeggen: 'had ik het maar onder de $150,- aangekocht toen dat nog kon'.. We gaan het zien!

Zo ben ik ooit met ASML begonnen op €68. Heb nog steeds veel van deze aandelen in mijn porto
AMD heeft enorme potentie om verder te groeien. Dat zal niet in 1 rechte lijn omhoog gaan.
Ik heb mijn positie hier ingenomen.

nine_inch_nerd 20 december 2023 12:03

US chippers ook, dus.

Amerikaanse techaandelen ook voor 2024 kansrijk
In Europa kijkt Simon Wiersma van ING naar bijvoorbeeld ASML, ASMI en Besi
youtu.be/ykJJAMfUa_o?si=wy16OSO3do9nKEho

nine_inch_nerd 20 december 2023 13:28

Voor geïnteresseerden en ter info.

Visie/analyse van Dani Cook, The Motley Fool

Is AMD Stock a Buy Now?
Wed, December 20, 2023 at 11:12 AM GMT+1

AMD likely has a bright future in AI over the long term

Many companies across tech have restructured their businesses to focus on AI in 2023, with several venturing into the hardware side of the industry. Tech firms like Intel, Amazon, and Microsoft all have plans to eventually challenge Nvidia's dominance in AI chips and take a slice of the lucrative market.

However, AMD likely has the best chance to thrive in the arena thanks to its years of being the second-biggest name in GPUs (second only to Nvidia). AMD has the brand recognition and infrastructure in place to catch up to its primary rival far quicker than other competitors.

AMD launched its MI300X AI GPU on Dec. 6. The new chip is reportedly faster than Nvidia's H100 GPU, offering up to 60% increased performance. If it can deliver competitive price-to-performance, AMD could see significant revenue gains over the next year.

Microsoft's Azure has already signed on to become the first cloud platform to use the chip. Meanwhile, Meta, Broadcom, and Cisco have partnered with AMD to build advanced AI systems.

The AI market exploded in 2023 and has shown no signs of slowing. Nvidia may have gotten a head start, but AMD looks likely to make a big splash next year, and you might not want to miss out on its growth potential.

Poor valuation makes other stocks more attractive for now

AMD's stock has skyrocketed this year, but its earnings still have yet to see a return on the chipmaker's heavy investment in AI. The chart reflects this, with the company's free cash flow plunging nearly 60% year to date while Nvidia's more than tripled.

finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-stock-buy-...

nine_inch_nerd 21 december 2023 23:49

Ter info.
Algemeen voor alle chippers.
The Semiconductor Market Will Recover in 2024 With an Annual Growth Rate of 20%, Says IDC
www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=pr...

nine_inch_nerd 26 december 2023 17:21

Katalysator, de een helpt de ander...

Chip Shares Advance as Intel Stock Rises
Hardika Singh
Tue, December 26, 2023 at 5:07 PM GMT+1

AMD
+1.24%
INTC
+3.93%

Shares of Intel rose nearly 3% in Tuesday morning trading, outpacing the S&P 500 and the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which was up about 1%. Other chip stocks also climbed, with Advanced Micro Devices recently up 1.
finance.yahoo.com/m/1de508ff-4787-3d0...

nine_inch_nerd 26 december 2023 17:24

Nvidia On Track To Topple Samsung, Intel As Biggest Chipmaker By Revenue; Will The Momentum Continue In 2024?
www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/anal...

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. , which has been catching up with Intel, will likely report revenue of $22.63 billion for the year compared to $23.6 billion in 2022.

nine_inch_nerd 26 december 2023 17:44

Forgive me...

www.forbes.com/sites/tiriasresearch/2...

Stage Is Set For Nvidia, AMD, Intel Shoot-Out At The AI Corral In 2024
Francis SidecoDec 26, 2023

AMD
A day later, AMD arrived at the shoot-out by announcing the latest developments on its Instinct Platform with the availability of the MI300X GPU, the MI300A APU and their associated ROCm software stack.

Based on AMDs latest CDNA3 architecture, the MI300X is touted as delivering 40% more compute units, 1.5x more memory capacity and 1.7x more peak theoretical memory bandwidth when compared to its predecessor, the MI250X. These performance improvements translate to 192 GB of HBM3 memory capacity and 5.3 TB/s peak memory bandwidth. With these performance and capacity improvements, AMD asserts that the MI300X is the only GPU capable of running Llama2 70B on a single accelerator greatly simplifying and reducing the number of GPUs required for a given workload. In a world where these types of high performance GPUs are in the 10s of thousands of dollars apiece and manufacturing capacity is extremely limited, this could represent enough of an advantage for AMD to help establish them as a viable second source for AI GPUs.

Also based on CDNA3, the MI300A leverages 3D packaging and the 4th Gen AMD Infinity Architecture to integrate the GPU cores with AMDs Zen4 CPU cores and 128 GB of HBM3 memory in a single package. Compared with the previous generation MI250A running FP32 HPC and AI workloads, this delivers approximately 1.9x performance-per-watt improvement.

Providing air cover across the platform, the latest ROCm 6 platform was also announced. Emphasizing its open source approach, AMD asserts an 8x AI performance increase on the same MI300 hardware when compared to previous generation software. Additionally, the latest release adds support for key generative AI features like FlashAttention, HIPGraph and vLLM.

nine_inch_nerd 28 december 2023 12:19

Stevige analyse Simply Wall St. In hoeverre het iets betekent in de chipwereld.

finance.yahoo.com/news/estimating-fai...

Estimating The Fair Value Of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)
Thu, December 28, 2023 at 12:00 PM GMT+1

Key Insights
- Advanced Micro Devices' estimated fair value is US$131 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of US$146 suggests Advanced Micro Devices is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Analyst price target for AMD is US$136, which is 3.8% above our fair value estimate

Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Expensive based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.

Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

nine_inch_nerd 3 januari 2024 11:18

Advies voor 2024 van Edwin Wierda. Niet iedereen is fan van hem en zegt hem te mijden bij adviezen.

AMD

Runner up in de AI-wereld. Lijkt in ieder geval de slag van Intel te hebben gewonnen.
Het aandeel is nog niet zo duur als Nvidia, maar groeit wel in de AI markt, waarvan ze onlangs hebben gezegd dat de totale marktomvang geen 150 miljard dollar, maar 400 miljard dollar is!

By the way, gisteren afstraffingen bij alle tech en chippers (Apple de oorzaak?).
Vandaag, kijkend naar de futures, ziet het ook niet goed uit.
Lijkt op een aankomende stevige correctie.
Notulen FED vanavond 20:00u.
Hopelijk helpt deze het allemaal iets te dimmen....

closer 3 januari 2024 13:44

Ik had het verwacht en (te weinig) verkocht op 150.
En natuurlijk gisteren te snel teruggekocht op 141.

nine_inch_nerd 3 januari 2024 17:30

quote:
closer schreef op 3 januari 2024 13:44:
Ik had het verwacht en (te weinig) verkocht op 150.
En natuurlijk gisteren te snel teruggekocht op 141.

Ja, achteraf altijd shit. Menselijk.
Chippers krijgen een correctie (?).
Ik heb mijn positie ook nog en wacht. Bij doorzetten dip, wacht ik mijn 'buy the dip' moment af.

Intel had ik ook, maar toch voor mijn overzicht met een resterende kleine winst verkocht.
Cash is nu belangrijker.

Succes.

closer 3 januari 2024 17:41

quote:
nine_inch_nerd schreef op 3 januari 2024 17:30:
Ja, achteraf altijd shit. Menselijk.

Ik ben niet anders gewend. Komt goed, binnenkort weer een nieuwe ATH.

ikke,dus 4 januari 2024 18:43

bodem gezien? + 50 @ 136,35

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