Kempen 28 april 2006
Increased visibility
Yesterday, Crucell closed 8% lower after hosting in analyst briefing that could not meet the expectations of the financial market. We believe that this decline was unjustified and therefore represents a buying opportunity. Moreover, we believe that Crucell provided the market with positive triggers that should have put the stock higher. Therefore, we reiterate our Buy recommendation and €30 price target.
Crucell closed 8% lower after hosting an analyst briefing that could not meet the expectations of he financial market.
Potential reasons for the decline could be:
�� Disappointing cash burn guidance of €20-24m. We feel that this cash burn guidance is not isappointing, as the cash burn guidance was €15-0m for Crucell alone in 2005. This would imply hatCrucell would spend €5m more y-o-y for moving everal programmes into the clinic and stockpiling ts close-to-belaunched pentavalent vaccine: not a ridiculous amount of money for progress.
�� Delay in its programmes. There is no denying that Crucell will initiate clinicaltrials with its Ebola and malaria programme later than expected, but the delay represents merely a quarter. Moreover, Crucell provided the market with several details on the clinical programmes, increasing the visibility on these programmes.
�� No deals. In the past days, Crucell’s share price was trading up on no news, implying that the market was looking for deals to be announced. Most likely a deal with GSK on a combined malaria vaccine. However, Crucell stated that its malaria vaccine provides a demonstrated higher level of protection than GSK’s RTS,S vaccine. Obviously, such offensive remarks decrease the chance on a deal. Crucell also stated that it no longer pursues a royalty-bearing deal, as the company’s profile has strengthened. Going forward, Crucell wishes to partner under a profit-sharing agreement. So in our opinion there were no material reasons for the stock to come down.
On the other hand, we did see two reasons for the stock to move up:
�� Increased yields with STAR. Crucell disclosed that its (improved) STAR
technology boosts protein production 5 to 20 times, while this used to be 4 to 10 times. Moreover, it disclosed that Genentech is evaluating STAR for one of its blockbuster products. This means that there is progress at Genentech, as this biotech giant would not alter a blockbuster if it would not see the potential.
�� Factor V Leiden a blockbuster. Crucell disclosed that it intends to develop this blood clotting protein on PER.C6. Since this protein can be developed for several indications (protein deficiency, haemophilia and other bleeding conditions) its potential peak sales could top the US$1bn landmark, making it a blockbuster. Crucell intends to have this product in the clinic as of 2007 and expects the clinical trajectory to be favourable. Finally, Crucell reiterated that it expects to sign a significant deal on blood factors in Q2 06. We believe that this will be on another blood factor, which will validate PER.C6 for developing blood factors.