Omdat er tussen de komkommers door weer aardig wat kweeperen & granaatappels verschijnen een nieuwe dagdraad. (En natuurlijk i.v.m. enig opzoekgemak later).
SNS Research Morning Note 27-07-09
Crucell (Buy): Competition toughens
The facts: Today, Sanofi-aventis and Mérieux Alliance announced the signature of a strategic agreement for the acquisition by Sanofi Pasteur of Mérieux Alliance's, which owns a majority stake in vaccine company Shantha.
Our analysis: Mérieux Alliance comprises five companies dedicated to public health that span the full range of healthcare. Shantha Biotechnics Ltd, a vaccine company based in India is one of which Merieux has 89% control.
Like Crucell's, Shantha works with supranational organizations like UNICEF and PAHO to supply major international markets. Many of Shantha vaccines on the market are similar to those of Crucell. In 1997, Shantha launched, the first recombinant Hepatitis B vaccine produced in India. Furthermore like Crucell's Quinvaxem, the company has a combination vaccine for Diphteria, Pertussis, Tetanus, Haemophilus influenza B and Hepatitis B exactly. Shantha's is a direct peer of Crucell and its drugs are also prequalified by the World Health Organization for supplying to United Nation agencies globally.
Shantha currently has a turnover of approximately USD 90m a year. The transaction, set to close before the end of the third quarter, values Shantha at EUR 550 m.
In 2008 Glaxo and Sanofi both got approval from the FDA for a combination vaccine which are similar to Crucell's Quinvaxem. However, Crucell still had the advantage as its product is already on the market, Crucell has a good reputation with supranational organizations and has enough production capacity for an increase in demand. With the acquisition, Sanofi now has a lead on Glaxo and will, in the future, compete with Crucell.
We do not expect this deal to affect sales of Crucell's vaccine products directly. Crucell is expected to announce a new deal with supranational organization for Quinvaxem before year end 2009.
However, given the commercial resources of Sanofi Pasteur and the state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities of Sanofi Pasteur to gain high quality capacity, we do believe that in the long run Crucell's competition will increase and that prices of vaccines will be pressured.
Last year there were talks between Crucell and Wyeth about a potential acquisition. At that time we also mentioned Sanofi as a potential candidate to take over Crucell. With the acquisition of Mérieux by Sanofi, we believe that a possible acquisition of Crucell by Sanofi is no longer likely. With the current acquisition, Sanofi has gained very similar product to Crucell, whereby it can enter and expand within the same market that Crucell is currently active.
Conclusion & Action: With the current acquisition competition for the long term is expected to increase. However for the short term we not expected Crucell;s sales to be affected as, Crucell is expected to announce a new deal with supranational organization for Quinvaxem before year end 2009. With the acquisition of Mérieux by Sanofi, we believe that a possible acquisition of Crucell by Sanofi is no longer likely. We reiterate our Buy rating, with a target price of EUR 22.50 based on the strong sales expected for FY09.