Vale CEO sees nickel prices strengthening
Brazilian mining giant Vale believes nickel prices could strengthen following Indonesia's ban on ore exports. Indonesia accounts for 18-20% of global nickel supply.
Vale is the world's second largest producer of nickel with mines and operations in Brazil, Canada, Indonesia and New Caledonia, as well as fully owned and JV refineries in China, South Korea, Japan, the UK and Taiwan. Vale Indonesia, which processes all of its nickel ore in the country at four smelters, received an export permit from the government in February.
Mr Murilo Ferreira CEO of Vale said that "Industry experts estimate that the market is once again unbalanced as a result of a number of factors, including Indonesia's ore ban. Analysts have been very accurate in predicting stock turnover, new projects and a series of concomitant technical difficulties."
According to the executive, analysts have been very emphatic in affirming an upward movement in nickel prices in the coming months and years. There are several price assumptions. Nickel prices ranged around USD 25,000 tonnes in 2006 and reached USD 54,000 per tonne in 2007. Nickel closed at USD 18,200 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange on April 30 after entering a bull market on March 18.
Mr Ferreira said that "Depending on the prices charged, cash generation for the nickel business is substantially altered. We are currently working with an Ebitda cash generation floor of about BRR 3 billion. And this cash can certainly provide better conditions for two reasons: either because the price rises or costs are reduced.”
On April 28, the commodities team at JP Morgan raised its 2014 and 2015 forecast for nickel, which it says will provide a much needed boost for Vale. Most of the company's Ebitda comes from iron ore, but the extent of the modification of its nickel price forecast is significant enough to lift Vale's 2014 and 2015 Ebitda by a respective 4% and 10%, international press reported.
Vale's nickel sales revenues fell 14.4% YoY in 1Q14 to USD 928 million due to the lower average realized price of USD 14,277 per tonne verus USD 17,206 per tonne in Q1 2013. The decrease in sales revenues was partially mitigated by a slight increase in sales volumes to 65,000 tonnes compared with 63,000 tonnes in 1Q13.
Source – Bnamericas.com