Onderstaande tekst is reeds door Daan gepost in de vorm van een link, maart wellicht is het verstandig de tekst integraal op te nemen op dit forum, vandaar dat ik mijn post op Rebound Shell hier nogmaals herhaal:
En nu nog even over mijn stokpaardje: de olie (gas en kolen) squeeze in China (en India). Luister (of lees in dit geval) en huiver:
Oil Prices Soar As Beijing Orders Energy Suppliers To Stock Up For Winter
By ZeroHedge - Sep 30, 2021, 1:00 PM CDT
Bloomberg: government officials "ordered the country’s top state-owned energy companies to secure supplies for this winter at all costs." Global supply chain bottlenecks are about to get even worse as China is set to bid more aggressively for what little coal and LNG supply there is.
China is officially panicking.
Now that the global energy crisis has slammed China's economy, leading to the first contractionary PMI since March 2020 as a result of widespread shutdowns of factory and manufacturing, not to mention hundreds of millions of Chinese residents suffering from periodic blackouts, Bloomberg reports that China’s central government officials "ordered the country’s top state-owned energy companies to secure supplies for this winter at all costs."
Translation: Beijing is no longer willing to risk social anger and going forward China will be subsidizing coal and nat gas, which will lead to even higher prices, which will lead to even higher prices for other "substitute" commodities such as oil, which is why oil surged on the news.
The news follows a report on Wednesday that China will allow soaring coal prices to be passed on to factories in electricity prices. But prepare for a surge in PPI, which will likely not be allowed to be passed on to CPI due to ‘common prosperity’. Which logically means margin collapse, and shutting down – so even more structural shortages. Unless we get state subsidies of some sort, or differential pricing for the foreign and domestic market. There used to be a name for that kind of economy. Wall Street used to pretend it didn’t like it.
According to Bloomberg, the order came directly from Vice Premier Han Zheng, who supervises the nation’s energy sector and industrial production, and was delivered during an emergency meeting earlier this week with officials from Beijing’s state-owned assets regulator and economic planning agency. The bottom line, according to Bloomberg sources, is that "blackouts won’t be tolerated."
Which simply means that the supply chain bottlenecks are about to get even worse since China will muscle in even more aggressively for what little coal and LNG supply there is. It is unclear if it also means that Beijing is about to give up on its laughable pursuit of decarbonization.
The emergency meeting underscores the critical situation in China. A severe energy shortage crisis has gripped the country, and several regions have had to curtail power to the industrial sector, and some residential areas have even faced sudden blackouts.
In a sign of how worried Chinese officials are, Premier Li Keqiang vowed overnight that every effort will be taken to maintain economic growth. China will ensure the needs of basic livelihoods are met and will keep industrial and supply chains stable, Li was cited as saying by China National radio during a meeting with foreign diplomats Thursday.
The bottom line is that China finally hit the limit of how much slowdown it is willing to tolerate and Beijing is about to unleash a monetary and fiscal stimulus tsunami. It also means that commodity prices are about to be absolutely insane this winter.
I'll rest my case!
Het taalgebruik is wat over de top, maar we leven pas eind september, begin oktober. De winter moet nog beginnen.
Het enige, of zowat het enige dat China nu nog kan doen, is ophouden met de kaasschaafmetode en een complete sector buiten bedrijf stellen. De woningbouw is gegeven de binnenlandse situatie in China, waar geen gebrek is aan woningen, de meest voor de hand liggende sector, zeker gezien de energieslurpende cementindustrie.
Een 2e optie (minder voor de hand liggend gezien het 'enorme' gezichtsverlies dat daarmede gepaard gaat) is een soort van smeekbede richting Australië, of ze alsjeblieft de leverantie van Kolen en LNG weer willen herstarten. Maar Australië kan zijn kolen en gas op de wereldmarkt tegen zeer goede prijzen verkopen en het is zeer de vraag of zij China ter wille zouden willen zijn.
Kortom, wordt vervolgd.