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What the end of Australia's iron ore boom means for small outback town of Pine Creek

When Mr Gary Brown was a younger man, an elephant ambled into the Pine Creek Hotel and walked out the other side.

Since then he has seen all kinds of strange and wonderful things, including his small outback town booming on the back of unprecedented demand for gold and iron ore over the past decade.

About 300 kilometres south of Darwin and far from the boardrooms of the big miners, the historical mining town of Pine Creek has been hit hard by a sudden and steep decline in the price of iron ore.

The local Frances Creek mine confirmed on Tuesday it had stopped production months after announcing this intention. By coincidence, a day earlier the iron ore spot price reached a five-year low.

The mine's closure follows two other mine shutdowns in the NT and marks the suspension of all iron ore mining in the Territory.

Frances Creek employed about 300 people in a town of 600 and since the mine went into voluntary administration last year sacked workers have been trickling out.

It would seem that for most places such a loss would be a knockout blow.
But Mr Brown said he had seen it all before. The worst downturn I went through would have been Pine Creek Goldfields when they closed down in 1995. We were a bit worried then. We thought we'd lose teachers from the school and police would be moving out of town."

Ten years after Mr Brown came to town, the mine went bust and the elephant walked through the bar.

He said that "We had a circus in town at the time. I was sitting here having a beer and this little baby elephants starts walking into the pub. I hadn't had that many. We were freaked out, we didn't know what to do. We were just hoping it wasn't going to stand on us."

Source – ABC
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FRIDAY, 30 JANUARY 2015

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Deutsche Bank Rating Disclosure on ArcelorMittal SA (ADR)

JANUARY 30, 2015 BY JOE WILLAMS

  

Deutsche Bank maintains their rating on the shares of ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) (NYSE:MT). The current rating of the shares is Hold. Equity Analysts at the Firm lowers the price target to $12.5 per share from $14.5 per share.Many firms have commented on the short term and long term price target. ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) (NYSE:MT): 5 Brokerage firm Analysts have agreed with the mean estimate for the short term price target of $14.3 in ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) (NYSE:MT). However, the stock price could fluctuate by $ 2.59 from the estimate as it is suggested by the standard deviation reading. The higher estimate has been put at $18 price target with the lower price estimate is calculated at $12

ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) (NYSE:MT) has received a Neutral rating from research analysts at Zacks with a rating of 3. The company has been rated an average of 1.83 by 6 Wall Street Analysts. 3 analysts have added the counter in their list of strong buys. 1 stock experts have also rated a buy. 2 broker firms see some more upside in the counter and have advised hold.

Investors in ArcelorMittal SA (ADR) (NYSE:MT) witnessed a surge in their wealth as the shares shot up 0.85% or 0.08 points to close at $9.49. The trading commenced at $9.53 and the price never settled into the negative territory, finally ending the session in the positive territory; this indicates strong inherent strength in the upmove. The previous close of the counter was $9.41. Interestingly, the 52-week high of the share price is $17.47. At close, the volume was measured at 5,667,730 shares. With 1,665,392,000 shares outstanding, the market cap of the company is $15,805 million. The shares have a 52-week low of $9.21.

ArcelorMittal SA (ArcelorMittal) is a global steel producer. During the year ended December 31, 2010, ArcelorMittal had steel shipments of approximately 85 million tons and crude steel production of approximately 90.6 million tons. ArcelorMittal produces a range of finished and semi-finished products. ArcelorMittal produces flat products, including sheet and plate, long products, including bars, rods and structural shapes, and stainless steel products. The Company operates in five segments: Flat Carbon Americas; Flat Carbon Europe; Long Carbon Americas and Europe; Asia, Africa and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (AACIS), and Distribution Solutions. ArcelorMittal also produces pipes and tubes for various applications. In July 2014, ArcelorMittal SA completed the sale of 78% in European port handling and logistics company ATIC Services SA to HES Beheer.

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BC Iron ramps up production despite price slump

ABC reported that amall WA miner, BC Iron, increased production in the December quarter despite plunging iron ore prices.

BC Iron operates the Nullagine iron ore mine in the Pilbara in north-west Western Australia, which is 25% owned by Fortescue Metals Group. The company mined 1.69 million tonnes of iron ore in the quarter compared to 1.36 million tonnes over the same period in 2013.

Output dramatically increased in the last few months of 2014 compared to the September quarter, where it mined 0.89 million tonnes because of operational changes to improve production.

As iron ore prices fall to the lowest levels since 2009, the miner says it has continued to cut costs by AUD 2 to AUD 3 per wet metric tonne.

It also is reviewing the value of its mines as iron ore prices decline to the lowest level in more than five years, with the Tianjin spot price yesterday hitting USD 62.30 a tonne.

Iron ore miners are under pressure because of glut of supply on the market thanks to ramped up production by the big miners, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale.

BC Iron said that its overall cost of production has declined to AUD 47 per wet metric tonne because of cost cutting and lower oil and sea freight prices. That figure includes the cost of mining and freight, plus royalties, marketing and corporate costs, but not the cost of moisture adjustment. It got paid an average price of USD 60 per dry metric tonne during the quarter.

Source – ABC
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January proves to be worst month since May for iron ore miners

Spot iron ore prices posted their biggest monthly fall I January 2015 since May last year as iron ore futures in China and Singapore extended recent losses on Friday

The most active iron ore contract for May delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.2% at CNY 473 per tonne, third weekly loss in a row. Similarly, the March iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange fell by 1.2% to USD 61.80 a tonne.

January has proved to be one of worst months for iron ore miners as prices of all types of iron ore products have crashed by 5% to 10%. The rout is more predominant in case of lower grade fines
Australian Fines Fe 62.5% - Down by 11% MoM
Australian Lumps Fe 62.5% - Down by 5% MoM
Brazilian Fines Fe 65% - Down by 7% MoM
Brazilian Lumps Fe 65% - Down by 5% MoM

The decline in prices is mainly due to slower demand growth for steel in China coupled with abundant supply from overseas. While high volume of supply from miners is the main driver of the low price steel mills in China are also cutting output before the Lunar New Year, putting further pressure on prices.

China, the world’s largest iron ore consumer, expanded 7.4%, the slowest pace since 1990 and crude steel production rose by 0.9% in 2014 compared with 7.5% in 2013.

Prices remain vulnerable to the downside given the slowing growth rate in steel production and recent expansion in global iron ore capacity. Sluggish steel demand in China will continue to push iron ore prices lower. The combination of a further increase in global iron ore supply this year and only subdued demand growth suggests iron ore prices will continue to drift lower. The iron ore market will continue to be sluggish next month as the Chinese New Year approaches and the low iron ore prices are likely to be the market's new normal.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Strategies for China steel industry under new normal - CISA

Mr Qu Xiuli, Deputy Secretary General of China Iron and Steel Association when talking about the development scenario for steel sector said that "World economy will continue to moderately develop in 2015 when China will keep stable macro control policy. However, the economic growth in China may be pressurized and central government may strictly conduct the regulations on marketing behaviors and environmental protections. As for China steel industry, 2015 will be the year for internal reforming and industrial transformation."

Production growth slowed down; investment slid; export increased;

1. Growth of steel production dived sharply. According to National Bureau of Statistics, production of crude steel, pig iron and steel products in 2014 totaled 823 million tonnes, 712 million tonnes and 1.126 billion tonnes, up 0.9%, 0.5% and 4.5% YoY. Daily crude steel production was 2.254 million tonnes with a sharp drop in growth rate.

2. Steel prices kept falling down due to weak demand and supply glut, which reflected a much fiercer competition.

3. FAI in steel sector declined. The total fixed assets investment in steel sector in 2014 was down by 3.8% from 2013, proving that central government’s efforts to rein in the capacity worked.

4. Steel exports skyrocketed at 93.78 million tonnes in 2014 that was 50.5% higher than 2013 shipments. However, the export price decreased by 11.5% compared to the rise of 2.5% in import price.

How to adopt New Normal situation China steel industry will continue to experience New Normal situation featured by overcapacity, slack demand, fierce competition and differential profitability. Qu proposed several suggestions to adopt the situation and improve the economic benefits:

A. To recognize, adopt and cope with New Normal. The most important thing is to realize sustainable development in terms of product mix, quality, economic benefits and environmental protection in stead of blindly expanding and depending on resources or energy consumption.

B. To develop differential competition and understand market positioning. Qu expected steelmakers to follow the product requirement and upgrading tendency and then to produce the competitively core products.

C. To activate funding stocks, to guarantee the money safety. Steel enterprises are suggested to strengthen capital management, especially by activating stocks of funding and clearing unprofitable investment. Direct and indirect investment overseas is also worthy trying. Qu also gave other suggestions, such as to enhance the efficiency of management, to promote internal reform etc.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
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Russian steelmakers face backlash as domestic prices surge

Reuters reported that Russian steelmakers are facing a backlash from domestic industrial consumers who are battling high internal steel prices and are lobbying the government to introduce quotas on exports.

An industry source said that following complaints from steel consumers such as carmakers and builders, Russia's anti monopoly authorities will look into the high steel prices.

Domestic prices for hot rolled steel sheet have risen by some 25% since September to RUB 29,330 per tonne, spurred by a 40% plunge in the rouble versus the dollar last year.

But some steelmakers, especially those with high dollar denominated debt are struggling. They have held talks with industry ministry officials this week to rebuff demands that they curb steel prices.

Mr Oleg Bagrin, president of top Russian steelmaker NLMK said that "Any market control measures, including limiting exports will lead to production cuts, worsening debt management, decreasing investments and finally, a further economic recession.”

Russian steel exports rose 25% in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 5.5 million tonnes spurred on by the rouble plunge. Steel exports are expected to rise further this year as the rouble rout continues. Exports have offered steelmakers with overseas exposure a lifeline. NLMK for example expects 2014 core earnings to be their highest in four years on boosted exports.

Source - Reuters
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Hebei Steel's net profit to increase 500pct in 2014

Hebei Steel announced on January 27 that its net profit vested in shareholders may be around CNY 670 million to CNY 700 million representing a YoY increase of 476.69% to 502.51%.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
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China steel production still not under control

Steel prices in China continue to fall in the face of plunging raw material cost inputs and a depressed construction sector. Even though China closed 31.1 million tonnes of steel production capacity last year, higher than the 27 million tonnes expected, the sector is still suffering from chronic overcapacity. Worse, the low hanging fruit in terms of obsolete and most polluting plants have already been closed.

Hebei province, the country’s biggest steel-making region, has closed as much as 15 million tonnes of steel production capacity last year but according to Reuters only aims to shut 5 million tonnes this year.

Beijing is trying to encourage more rationalization and has not only imposed stricter air pollution control limits, but removed export tax rebates on certain grades of boron containing steels to dissuade producers from simply shifting excess production onto export markets. So far their efforts have had little effect and rationalization has largely gone absent.

Inventory remains high and prices tracked by MetalMiner’s domestic price reporting service have continued to fall. Melinda Moore, analyst at Standard Bank is quoted by the FT as saying demand for steel has effectively fallen 15-20% from December’s levels.

With domestic growth slowing and particularly little sign of life in the construction sector, demand is not expected to pick up substantially in 2015.

Meanwhile, iron ore and coking coal prices continue to fall. Iron ore hit USD 63.30 per ton this week for Australian-origin supplies according to the FT, the lowest level for 5-1/2 years and with the big three miners continuing to chase the market down with ever rising production, steel price support will not come from cost inputs.

Source – MetalMiner
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Iron ore queen Ms Rinehart loses AUD 6 billion as prices plummet

According to the Forbes Australia’s 50 Richest List, Australia’s richest person Ms Gina Rinehart has seen a third of her wealth disappear thanks to the plummeting iron ore price.

While Rinehart’s net worth fell by USD 6 billion with USD 11.7 billion she is still by far Australia’s richest person.

Forbes said that Ms Rinehart and fellow miners Mr Andrew Forrest and Clive Palmer have all taken hits to their wealth due to a worldwide decline in the demand for steel, particularly in China. Mr Clive Palmer has been knocked off the top 50 list altogether.

Source - AAP
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MMK Group update on steel segment

FY 2014 highlights
Crude steel output in FY 2014 increased by 9.1% YoY and totalled 13,031,000 tonnes.

In FY 2014, shipments of finished products totalled 11,650 thousand tonnes, up 9.2% YoY. This growth was driven by increased sales volumes for hot rolled products, thick plate and galvanised rolled products.

A favourable pricing environment on commodities markets and the decline in the ruble during 2014 supported growth in MMK’s shipment volumes on the Russia+CIS and export markets by 595,000 tonnes and 389,000 tonnes, respectively. At the same time the share of the domestic market decreased slightly, to 82.3%.

Export sales of finished products in FY 2014 amounted to 2,063,000 tonnes, up 23.2% YoY.

In FY 2014, capacity utilization of long steel production facilities remained 99%, driving shipments of 1,827,000 tonnes of long products to customers.

Due to significant growth in domestic and export sales in FY 2014, shipments of hot rolled products increased by 16.3% YoY to 5,403,000 tonnes.

Sales of HVA products in FY 2014 were supported by higher output of thick plate (mill 5000) and continued growth in galvanised steel output.

As a result, sales of HVA products in FY 2014 increased by 3.5% YoY and totalled 4,345,000 tonnes. The share of HVA products in total shipments volumes in FY 2014 slightly decreased to 37.3%.

Growth in orders for thick plate for production of large diameter pipes in 2014 resulted in a significant increase in mill 5000 production volumes. Sales of thick plate in FY 2014 increased by 9.6% YoY to 924,000 tonnes. Key customers included pipemakers supplying the Power of Siberia and Southern Corridor projects.

Strong demand for construction products and a continued deficit of galvanised steel products on the domestic market supported an increase in sales of galvanised steel by 14.1% (above average sales growth rates) to 1,116,000 tonnes.

The average dollar sales price in FY 2014 decreased by 9.4% YoY. Key factors included a traditional lag in the recovery of Russian market sales prices to parity with export prices (due to the decline of the ruble) and continued negative pressure on global steel prices as a result of a global surplus of production facilities. At the same time, ruble prices on the Russian market in 2014 increased by 8.6% YoY.

Q4 2014 highlights
Crude steel output in Q4 2014 decreased 309 thousand tonnes or 9.1% QoQ. Out of this 9% approximately 6% related to a scheduled maintenance of BF #8 (December 2015) and oxygen converter (November-December 2015). Seasonal slowdown of the demand resulted in another 3% of the decline.

In Q4 2014, shipments of finished products decreased by 7.3% QoQ.

Long products sales in Q4 2014 declined by 13,000 tonnes, primarily due to a seasonal reduction in shipments to MMK-Metiz.

In Q4 2014 sales of cold rolled products increased by 28,000 tonnes or 8.3% QoQ. This was primarily driven by an increase in shipments to customers in the pipemaking and automotive industries by 15,900 tonnes and 8,600 tonnes, respectively.

The decline in sales of thick plate from mill 5000 in Q4 2014 by 13.2% QoQ or 36,000 tonnes was due to changes in product mix in customer orders, resulting in a larger share of better quality, but less productive product mix.

In Q4 2014, sales of HVA products declined at a slower rate than overall volumes (-3.9% versus - 7.3%), due to higher demand for coated products from traders, who were replenishing long-term stocks in anticipation of domestic prices growth.

Source – Strategic Research Institute
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Bellara Steel Complex in Algeria to start construction in Q1 2015

Algeria Times reported that the construction works of the Bellara Steel Complex in the commune of El Milia (Jijel, 359 kilometers east of Algiers), will start during the Q1 of 2015.

The same official said that the procedures for the launch of this important project have reached very advanced level adding that contracts for the construction of the steel complex’s rolling mills will be signed in the coming weeks between the Algerian to Qatari joint venture called Algerian Qatari Solb and the Italian group Danieli entrusted to build complex within 20 months.

Mr Ali Bedrici, prefect of Jijel said that this huge project aims at meeting the national needs in terms of reinforced concrete, and will enable the province of Jijel to become a first-class industrial hub.

It includes the construction of a steel factory and three rolling mills, including two for reinforcing bars. Bellara complex is expected to produce two million tonnes per year in the first phase. The production should be doubled to four million tonnes, in a second phase.

Source - Algeria Times
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Iran steel production capacity to hit 55 million tonnes

IRNA cited Mr Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh industries, mines and trade minister of Iran as saying that a comprehensive steel plan, devised on the basis of 2025 Vision, will be finalized within a month. Iran’s annual steel production capacity is expected to reach 55 million tonnes by 2025, stressing that the objective is achievable.

Mr Nematzadeh said that “Based on the comprehensive steel plan, 20% to 25% of domestic steel products should be exported. The ministry will not accept foreigners implementing projects in the industry.”

The minister, however, noted that Iran can use the capabilities of foreign companies whenever necessary. Efforts should be made to find appropriate places for the implementation of steel projects. Steel projects should be economically viable and serve the national interests.

Mr Nematzadeh said that rivalry among domestic companies in the international market is very destructive adding that some organizations can play a key role in creating coordination among Iranian firms.

Source - IRNA
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ThyssenKrupp chairman wants steelmaker to raise profit and ratios

Bloomberg reported that ThyssenKrupp AG’s profit has yet to reach satisfactory levels while equity levels must rise.

Mr Ulrich Lehner supervisory Board Chairman said before the annual general meeting of Germany’s largest steelmaker that “The EBIT achieved isn’t a satisfactory EBIT yet.”

He told reporters in Dusseldorf referring to adjusted earnings before interest and taxes for continuing operations that more than doubled in the year through September to EUR 1.33 billion from a year earlier. The equity ratio of 8.9% as of September 30, which improved from a year earlier, has to increase and the company’s culture will take some more time to change.

The Essen based company is expanding its elevator, industrial and components units amid weak steel prices to become a diversified industrial group with EBIT of at least EUR 2 billion in the longer term.

In November, ThyssenKrupp reported its first annual net income in four years after selling a US plant that was part of the 204 year old company’s worst investment and proposed to resume dividend payments.

Mr Lehner said that it is exciting that activist shareholder Cevian Capital AB’s Jens Tischendorf will join ThyssenKrupp’s supervisory board if approved. The Swedish investment firm with a 15.1% stake is the company’s second biggest shareholder.

Source – Bloomberg
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ArcelorMittal Poland may curb production on coking coal shortage

Reuters reported that ArcelorMittal’s Polish unit said on Friday it might have to curb production if JSW, its main coking coal supplier, does not in the next few days resume deliveries that have been halted by a miners' strike.

ArcelorMittal Polska spokeswoman Ms Sylwia Winiarek said the steel maker did not receive supplies from JSW for the third day running on Friday.

She told Reuters “The situation is tough, as JSWs provides up to 60% of the coal we use. In the medium and long term we can cope, but as we have a few days' worth of resources, in the coming days we may have to curb production."

She added “We're trying to look for alternative supply sources. A ship with overseas coal is on its way.”

Trade unions at JSW, which is controlled by the Polish treasury, went on strike on Wednesday against the company's plans to cut costs.

Source – Reuters
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China's base metals import appetite has peaked - Mr Andy Home

Mr Andy Home of Reuters wrote that not so very long ago base metals bulls marched to the beat of the monthly release of China's trade figures as China import appetite was seemingly insatiable as it sucked in ever increasing volumes to feed its booming infrastructure and property programmes but not any more

Net imports of refined aluminium, nickel, zinc and tin all fell last year, some of them precipitously. China isn't a net importer of refined lead at all, a steady flow of exports helping explain why this particular market is so out of favour with investors right now. Aluminium product exports are also booming, a tangible manifestation of oversupply in the Chinese market. Only copper continues to buck the trend, although for how long is an increasingly moot question.

China imported 227,000 of primary aluminium in the first half of last year and just 40,000 tonnes in the second half.

Imports of refined zinc halved to 190,000 tonnes in the six months after Qingdao, while exports rose from 4,600 tonnes in January-June to 127,000 tonnes in July-December. China was actually a net exporter of non alloyed zinc in the last quarter of 2014.

Nickel was the worst affected, however. Exports surged as metal headed for safe-haven storage in the London Metal Exchange warehouse system.

It was a brutal wake-up call for the nickel market, which hadn't realised just how much of the stuff had been sitting in China's bonded warehouses. The country turned net exporter for the first time ever over the June-December period.

Source – Reuters
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China port restrictions to giant Valemax ship removed - Vale

Vale SA, the miner that developed the world’s largest iron-ore ships, said that the setbacks to dock the vessels in China have been removed, opening the door to cut transportation costs to its biggest market.

Mr Rogerio Nogueira, Vale Investor Relations Director, said that “Valemax, as the 400,000 tonne vessels are known, have already arrived in five Chinese ports as they no longer confront restrictions. The company is now working to adapt China’s ports to the vessel as it boosts the number of Valemax docking in terminals of the Asian nation.”

Mr Nogueira said during a mining seminar in Rio that “That issue of the lobby, of the obstruction, that’s overcome. Now it’s port-to-port work, of adaptation. We are in that job of increasing the number of ports where we can dock in China.”

Vale started operating Valemax in 2011 to reduce shipping costs and vie with Australian competitors for a bigger share of sales to China, the destination of half the company’s iron-ore shipments. It hasn’t been allowed to dock them in the Asian nation until now.

Mr Murilo Ferreira CEO of Vale said that the company had yet to convince China’s authorities to allow the vessels to anchor at Chinese ports because of safety concerns.

Mr Nogueira said during the seminar that “That was really an important problem, there was an important lobby for Valemax not to dock in Chinese ports.”

He said that the use of Valemax to transport iron ore to China represents 'quite a significant' cost advantage compared with using smaller ships declining to provide cost estimates.

Mr Thiago Lofiego, analyst at Bank of America Corporation, said at the same event that Iron ore may fall to as low as USD 55 a tonne and trade at an average of USD 70 a tonne this year as the largest producers continue to add supply and high-cost mines in China are more resilient than expected to lower prices.

According to Metal Bulletin Limited, ore of 62% content rose to USD 63.27 a dry tonne on Thursday, reducing its declined in the past 12 months to 49%.

Source - Bloomberg
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Een voorbeeld voor mr. Lakshmhi Mittal?

United States Steel Corporation declares dividend

United States Steel Corporation announced that its Board of Directors declared a dividend of five cents per share on US Steel Common Stock. The dividend is payable March 10th 2015, to stockholders of record at the close of business February 11th 2015.

Source – Strategic Research Institute

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Anglo American may impair assets as iron ore output soars

Bloomberg reported that Anglo American Plc plans impairments because of low commodity prices even after the company with operations from Australia to Chile raised annual iron ore production to a four year high.

Anglo produced 48.9 million tonnes of the steelmaking ingredient in 2014, a 4.7% increase from the previous year. This includes 688,000 tonnes from its Brazilian Minas-Rio project, which shipped its first consignment in October and a 14% increase in production from its Kumba unit in South Africa.

The new output from Minas-Rio comes as prices have fallen more than two thirds since peaking in 2011, entering a bear market as producers including Rio Tinto Plc, the world’s largest, expand supplies. Anglo raised capital expenditure for Minas Rio to AUD 8.8 billion after an original estimate of $2.6 billion and wrote down AUD 4 billion of the asset’s value in 2013.

Given the sharply lower commodity price environment, particularly for the bulk commodities, Anglo American expects to record certain non cash impairment charges” for 2014 when it releases earnings on Febraury 13.

Anglo shares climbed 2.3% to 1,115 pence at the close in London. Iron ore with 62% ferrous content delivered to China’s Qingdao port fell 0.7% to AUD 63.09 per tonne.

Credit Suisse Group AG said that Minas-Rio’s book value may exceed its current worth, or net present value, by more than AUD 5 billion by the end of the year assuming a long term price for iron ore of AUD 90 per tonne.

At the Anglo American Platinum unit, the world’s biggest producer of the metal, group equivalent refined production increased 14% to 593,900 ounces for the quarter after operations returned to normal following a five month strike by the largest union that ended in June. Annual output was 1.84 million equivalent platinum ounces.

Amplats, as the Johannesburg based producer is known, closed a loss making decline section at its Union operations, one of four mines that the company earmarked for sale.

Source – Bloomberg
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