India steel mills have worries other than China
Business Standard reported that according to a JP Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research report, in 2003-04, India's steel imports were 1.5 million tonnes and exports 4.5 million tonnes. In 2014-15, India's steel imports were 9.3 million tonnes and exports 5.5 million tonnes. China's share was 3.6 million tonnes, up 232 per cent year on year. Effectively, imports are currently 15 per cent of monthly consumption.
That scenario changed for the worse when China devalued the yuan recently. It meant that China, which was anyway exporting 10 million tonnes of steel a month to countries across the world, would become more competitive.
At current import duty, India raised the import duty from 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent on flat steel and to 7.5 per cent from 5 per cent for long steel in June and another 2.5 per cent after the yuan devaluation, the landed price of Chinese hot rolled coil works out to Rs 25,000 a tonne versus the domestic hot rolled coil price of Rs 28,000 a tonne.
Plus, while imports from China are a problem, the bigger issue is with the free trade agreements with Japan and South Korea. In 2014-15, imports from Japan were 1.6 million tonnes, up 18 per cent year on year, and from South Korea 1.9 million tonnes, up 46 per cent year on year. Mr Jayanta Roy, senior vice-president, ICRA said “In the first quarter after the first import duty hike, China's share of Indian steel imports came down to 30 per cent from around 40 per cent. But there was hardly any impact on imports from Japan and South Korea.”
Also, between October and December, many domestic steel producers are understood to be going in for maintenance shutdowns, which could restrict domestic supply. Does it mean that Indian steel is insulated from the impact of the yuan devaluation? Roy said, it would depend on China, whether it would focus on pushing volumes or go for higher margins. Pushing volumes may spell trouble for the global steel industry, including India.
Source : Business Standard