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Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 16 februari 2016 16:10

Gous is vanmorgen nog naar ca. 1192 gekukeld; daarna weer herstel. Het is en blijft een 'bumpy road', omhoog wel te verstaan ...

B_B 19 februari 2016 00:31

Morgen/vrijdag daling olie en Deutsche Bank.
Waarschijnlijk het begin van een nieuwe crash.
Expiratie morgen/vrijdag zal het effect versterken.
Goed voor goud.

[verwijderd] 19 februari 2016 07:58

Goud heeft zijn winst van gisteren weer losgelaten.
Vermoed dat er een correctie naar beneden komt en van de zomer is echt vaart omhoog gaat maken..

Reguliere aandelen zullen ook wel weer eens losgelaten worden.

Succes

[verwijderd] 19 februari 2016 12:28

Goud is een lange termijn belegging! Het aanbod gemakkelijk te ontginnen goud (goudproductie) daalt jaar na jaar en dat heeft een effect op het aanbod.

De centrale banken vooral in het Oosten blijven goud inslaan, samen met particuliere beleggers die hun koopkracht willen beschermen tegen de negatieve rente.

De goudprijs zie ik de komende jaren (rond 2018) aan 1400 à 1650 dollar/ounce noteren. Op voorwaarde dat de economische situatie blijft wat ze nu is en niet blijft verslechteren.

In de 'worst case' scenario waar de centrale banken de teugels verloren hebben over de wereldeconomie en de overheidsschulden blijven ontsporen de komende jaren. Kan de goudprijs zeer vlot over de 2000 tot 2500 dollar/ounce gaan.

[verwijderd] 19 februari 2016 12:46

In de toekomst zie ik steeds meer spanning tussen vraag en aanbod ontstaan.
www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-d...

De gemakkelijk te ontginnen goudaders zijn verleden tijd.

De meeste goudmijnbedrijven zijn niet meer rendabel met goudprijzen beneden de 1000 dollar/ounce. In de toekomst zal de financiële break-even vs goudprijs voor de mijners hoger en hoger moeten liggen.

B_B 20 februari 2016 10:30

Equity funds post longest outflows streak since 2008
By Claire Milhench, Reuters
February 19, 2016

LONDON (Reuters) - Equity funds posted their longest run of outflows since 2008 in the last week, edging closer to "capitulation" levels as risk-off redemptions accelerated, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) said on Friday.

Investors pulled $12.2 billion out of equity funds in the week to Feb. 17, the largest equity outflows in five months, driven by worries over stuttering growth and the ability of central banks to respond effectively.
This was the seventh week of redemptions in a row, something not seen since 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis. Redemptions from European equity funds totaled $4.2 billion, the highest since October 2014, whilst U.S. equity fund outflows reached $6 billion.
The bank said the selling was edging closer to capitulation levels, with some $53 billion pulled out of equities over the past seven weeks. Capitulation is generally seen as the point at which the last bull in the market turns bearish and sells out of overweight positions.
That exceeds the $36 billion withdrawn during the August 2015 sell off but is still some way off the $85 billion of outflows during the 2008 global financial crisis.
"Risk off redemptions (are) accelerating," BAML's global investment strategy team, led by Michael Hartnett, said in a note on Friday. "Investors (are) still more worried about what they own, rather than what they don't own."
Investors shoveled $3.2 billion into traditional safe haven gold, the biggest two-week gold inflow since May 2010, as part of a rotation into defensive assets that also boosted government and treasury bond funds by $1.6 billion.
BAML, which also uses data from fund flows research house EPFR Global, identified two main problems. Firstly, the U.S. economy is facing a "bad Goldilocks" scenario, where it is not strong enough to lift global growth, but not weak enough to induce a global co-ordinated response.
It added that in recent days central bankers and policy-makers have all blamed the global economy for weak domestic growth, displaying "co-ordinated innocence" rather than stimulus.
It pointed to Japan's prime minister citing the drag on the U.S. economy from a greater-than-expected slowdown in China and other emerging markets, and minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve highlighting rising concerns about the prospects for the global economy.

www.thefiscaltimes.com/latestnews/201...

B_B 20 februari 2016 10:36

FEB 18, 2016
Stock Market Strength Driven By Short Covering

The S&P 500 has been up over 1% for the past three days for a total rise of 5.3% since hitting its recent low of 1,829.08 last Thursday. While the S&P 500 is still down 5.7% for the year it has now just under a 10% correction from its 52 week high of 2,134.72 reached on May 20 last year.

While an all clear can’t be sounded the S&P 500 at least bounced off the low it hit in January and October 2014. The Index’s RSI (Relative Strength Index, top third of the chart) and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence, bottom third of the chart) shows that the market had gotten oversold and was ripe for at least a bounce. While a combination of rising oil prices, stronger Chinese Renminbi and a Federal Reserve that looks to be more accommodative was the kindling short covering may have been the gasoline.

Short covering helped the rally

This is from Michael O’Rourke at JonesTrading (no relation to me) “The short squeeze in the S&P 500 continued today (Wednesday) bringing the 4 day rally in the S&P 500 to 6.7%. The Goldman Sachs Most Short Rolling index rallied over 12% over the same time frame.”

Bespoke analyzed the impact of short covering in relation to the markets rally on Tuesday and Wednesday (and I suspect it was similar on Thursday). Using the Russell 3000 it found that the stocks with the highest short interest as a percentage of their float tended to increase more than the ones with the lowest short interest. Given that a large portion of the markets volume is driven by algorithmic trading and its ability to move markets the markets are pretty much likely to fall if any incremental news tells the computers to sell as this does not feel like a rally based on fundamentals.

www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2016/...

B_B 22 februari 2016 09:40

Olie zal vanmiddag dalen en neemt de beurzen mee omlaag.
Goud zal herstellen en verder stijgen volgende week.

[verwijderd] 22 februari 2016 11:26

Goldman Sachs schreeuwt het van de daken dat goud moet gedumpt worden... marketupdate.nl/nieuws/goud-en-zilver...

Blijkbaar volgen velen slaafs het bevel.

[verwijderd] 22 februari 2016 11:28

Maar zou toch niet weglopen voor goud want...

Vitor Constancio, ECB Vice President kondigt verdere versoepelingen aan zeker nu Frankrijk slecht begint te boeren. Lees meer stimuli en verdere geldontwaarding door verlaging van negatieve depositorente tot misschien -0.5%.

LINK: www.actionforex.com/analysis/daily-fo...,-ecb's-constancio-says-20160222258436/

[verwijderd] 23 februari 2016 15:22

Evenwicht is (voor mij althans)de sleutel naar een goede nachtrust. Mijn ambitie is altijd circa 10% cash en circa 5% goud in portefeuille te hebben.

daan 32 23 februari 2016 18:00

max1017 dat is nu toevallig ook een adagios

gezonder kan het niet!

veel succes verder

B_B 24 februari 2016 00:26

Oil prices tumble as Saudi Arabia rules out production cuts
Source: Xinhua 2016-02-24

NEW YORK, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- Oil prices decreased Tuesday after Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said there won't be any production cuts in the country.

"We are not banking on cuts" because there is less trust that "countries are going to deliver even if they promise," Al-Naimi said Tuesday.

He also said it's not clear when the current price rout will end, but the market will eventually rebalance because high-cost producers will have to "lower costs, borrow or liquidate" to cope with the slump in oil prices.

Big oil exporters including Saudi Arabia and Russia have proposed to freeze output at January levels only if other producers join them.

The West Texas Intermediate for April delivery moved down 1.52 U.S. dollars to settle at 31.87 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude for April delivery declined 1.42 U.S. dollars to close at 33.27 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.

news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-02/24...

Deze week nieuwe diepte punt voor de olieprijs en goud richting de 1300 dollar.
Hopelijk USD/JPY onder de 110.

B_B 24 februari 2016 09:15

Deutsche Bank onder de 14,60 euro kan voor (kleine) paniek zorgen.
Goed voor Goud.

www.investing.com/equities/deutsche-bank

[verwijderd] 24 februari 2016 10:13

@daan 32

En dan vooral ook: graag FYSIEK bij me thuis in de kluis, want alle beschikbare etfs, BITs, trackers etc. combineren m.i. niet goed met het veilige gevoel dat een klompje juist geeft.

B_B 25 februari 2016 00:14

Olie-jojo stopt morgen (geen positieve manipulatie meer).
Volgende week onder de 28 dollar.

B_B 25 februari 2016 18:13

UPDATE – China plans to launch yuan-denominated gold fix on April 19 – sources

Posted on February 25, 2016 by Meimei Qin
(Updated to include background on banks that may participate in the yuan-denominated fixing)

London 25/02/2016 – China plans to launch its new yuan-denominated gold pricing fix on April 19 this year, sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

The launch date has been officially settled and draft trading rules have been sent out to those banks that will be involved in the Shanghai fixing, FastMarkets understands.

The banks that will participate in the planned launch are predominently Chinese but FastMarkets understands that foreign banks could also be involved, according to sources.

It is likely that the 10 banks that are official market makers in the system set up by the SGE in January to facilitate interbank gold trading will participate in the yuan-denominated fixing, one source said.

Most Chinese banks in the list of ‘official’ market makers probably will be involved in the fix, the source noted, alongside one foreign bank.

The 10 ‘official’ market makers are ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, China CITIC Bank, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank Co, Bank of Ningbo and ANZ (China).

The SGE is looking to bring more foreign banks on broad, a well-informed source said.

The new benchmark will be run through the state-owned Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), the world’s largest physical gold exchange.

The SGE declined to comment.

www.fastmarkets.com/asia/update-china...

B_B 25 februari 2016 18:15

Gold Trading Explodes to Record in Shanghai, Peak 2011 Level in Comex Call Options

Thursday, 2/25/2016 14:13
GOLD TRADING held wholesale prices above $1230 per ounce in Asia and London on Thursday morning, with volumes in China's bullion market setting a new record as the Shanghai stock market closed sharply lower but European equities rallied.

With gold prices trading 16% higher against both the US Dollar and Chinese Yuan since 1st January, China's main share index tday sank 6.4%, its worst 1-day in a month, while commodity prices gave back a third of Wednesday's late recovery.

Gold trading volumes in Shanghai today jumped to a new all-time record, with Dollar-equivalent prices in the world's largest mining producer and importer moving above London quotes for the first time this week, offering a gross margin of $1.30 per ounce on new shipments – barely half the 18-month average.

Data released overnight showed gold imports to China through Hong Kong sank as prices rose in January, falling 85% from December to the lowest level since 2011 according to Bloomberg data, despite the approach of the key Lunar New Year shopping season.

Some CNY18 billion-worth of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main Au(T+D) contract changed hands on Thursday, trading some 70 tonnes of bullion.

Until Thursday, "The SGE had remained in discount for the entire week," notes the Asian trading desk of Swiss refinery and finance group MKS, "and it seemed like some Asian investors were happy to capitalise on [this week's] higher prices."

Trading in the New York-based Comex's gold call options meantime – a highly leveraged bet that prices will rise – has jumped in February to its highest daily average since prices peaked above $1900 per ounce in September 2011, the Wall Street Journal notes in a chart.

"It shows how bullish people are on gold," the WSJ quotes one derivatives strategist at a broker-dealer.

The world's largest exchange-traded trust fund at its 2011 peak by value, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) has now grown 18% by shares outstanding since New Year, needing an extra 118 tonnes to back its value – the sharpest 8-week inflow since July 2010, when the Greek debt crisis first began making headlines worldwide.

"The move in gold," reckons Swiss bank Credit Suisse's global head of FX strategy Shahab Jalinoos, speaking to Bloomberg, "captures the idea that interest rates are going to be very low in all the major countries, including now the United States, which is a big change from the end of last year."

"China's interest in buying gold from Hong Kong cooled a lot last month," the newswire also quotes Shanghai analyst Wang Rong at Guotai & Junan Futures Co., "because of [high prices due to] exchange rate factors.

"Purchases in December were so high that they probably anticipated demand in January."

www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-t...

[verwijderd] 26 februari 2016 11:52

De centrale banken en nationale banken vechten om terug goud in hun kluizen te hebben!

Frankfurt becomes Bundesbank's largest gold storage location.
www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Presse...

[verwijderd] 26 februari 2016 11:56

Een grote vis in de Belgische financiële sector wind er geen doekjes om!

Bruno Colmant, head of Macro Research bij Bank Degroof Petercam, ziet een scenario opdoemen waarbij de spaarrente voor grote bedragen negatief wordt.

'Negatieve rente op grote spaarboekjes in zicht'.
www.tijd.be/ondernemen/banken/Negatie...

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