Opstapelen schreef op 14 februari 2015 10:27:
dit is leuk stukje, we hebben al wat prognoses op papier gezet. Deze is van DB. Zij geven 20% kans op koers 50-3. en 80% op 90-140
U mag nu inzetten.
Figure 60: DB view on risk/reward into
GOLDEN
........................Case............................................ ..DB view on chance ...........FV on case & assumed probability...........Upside/downside from current CMP
SUPER BULL....Hit primary endpoint..Stat sig benefit on fibrosis..............10%.........................$140/share 75% prob to 505..........................200%
BASE..........Hit primary endpoint..Numerical trend in fibrosis...............70%......................$90-$110/share 50-60% prob to 505.....................100-150%
BEAR1.........Hit primary endpoint..some safety concern (lipids)..............5%........................$57-$68/share 35-40% prob to 505......................30-50%
BEAR2.........Misses primary but shows efficacy..No safety signal.............10%.......................$25/share 20% prob to 505.............................-43%
WORST CASE....Safety
signal...................................................5%..................... .......$3/share cash value...............................-93%
Source: Deutsche Bank