scuderia FF schreef op 25 januari 2016 11:41:
Heijmans - heb een rapport en een update binnen,
rapport van mid December, dus wel recent
update gaat over IFRS impact
rapport leest goed - koersprijs was toen 8 euro en 12 maand target werd gezet op 14 met advies van hold naar buy
( dit was wel voor de wereldwijde correctie op de Beurzen , maar goed dat doet niet af aan het rapport, denk dat je deze gerust over een correctie mee kan nemen voor een 2 jaar horizon heeft dit aandeel mooie potentie )
ik ga er wat van nemen
" after Heijman's recent profit warning we expect the worst is over, we believe that the problems at H are not structural. The company has completed elaborate restructurings and it is by far the most innovative among the construction companies.
H also has the highest top line upside as it will benefit most from te recovery of the Dutch residential market.
We increase our rating to BUY from Hold and set our price target at EUR 14
- H will be the main beneficiary of the recover of the Dutch residential sector, we expect that H total residential revenues ( incl construction) can increase again to 30% of group revenues, from 15% now and 40% in the heydays.
- since 2007 H has written down on its land and property positions, value on the bal-sheet decreased by 21%, although we do not expect a full recovery, as the market has changed structurally ( new lending rules) we do expect margins to be well over 4% as possile.
- H shocked investors with a profit warning Nov 5th and the share declined 25% since, except for maybe Germany we do not expect the problems at H to be structual.
In the non-residential division , it seems that H used up its flexible layer, which suggest that additional capacity reduction is needed, this will be fixed .
- from the Dutch construction companies , we believe that H is by far the most innovative, altho creations like the smart highway, self-healing asphalt etc are not likely to have a substantial contributionto sales near term, it certainly adds to H reputation and as such may have a positive impact on sales.
- alth we are more aggressive than consesus, we believe we are realistic in our estimates, this combined with perfect timing, makes this an interesting entry point for the shares
- assuling that 2016 pe levels go to 6 or 7 we arrive at price targets of euro 11 a share, if earnings momentum increases it could be more.
if we look at a sum of all parts valuation of H the share price target could be 17 euro as well.
All in all, we increase our rating to BY and set our price target at EUR 14, being the middle of our multiple valuation and SOTP
OK dan een bunch cijfers die het bovengenoemde ondersteunen,
zoals immer is de view van een analist, de beslissing voor het aandeel te gaan is aan jezelf.