Eurobench.com

Tom3 29 september 2017 10:07

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Zal ik doen. Het lijkt er trouwens wel op dat de omzetten vandaag wel erg hoog zijn. Zouden "we" ontdekt zijn?

DeZwarteRidder 30 september 2017 09:59

1

Chile sees no obstacle to Albemarle request to hike lithium output cap
Reuters | 2 days ago | 433 | 2

Chile’s Codelco sets up lithium subsidiary
Chile holds half of the world’s most “economically extractable” reserves of lithium.

Chile sees no obstacles to approving Albemarle Corp’s request for an increase in its annual lithium production limit, given the high prices for the metal used in electric car batteries, a government official told Reuters on Thursday.

“There’s no reason to object to this request,” said Eduardo Bitran, head of the South American country’s CORFO state development agency. “Given the contract we have, this means royalties, more fiscal resources, more investment.”

Albemarle asked CORFO on Sept. 15 to raise its quota to 125,000 tonnes per year from 80,000 tonnes currently, citing technological advancements that allowed it to obtain more of the mineral without needing to extract more brine out of the Atacama salt flat in northern Chile.

Albemarle shares were up 1 percent at $131.33 in morning New York Stock Exchange trading.

Bitran said he hoped CORFO’s board would consider the request in November and approve the change this year. Albemarle said it could invest $1 billion in Chile over the next five years if the plan is approved.

The Atacama salt flat is part of the so-called “lithium triangle” in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, a region containing a large portion of the world’s lithium reserves. Investment and output have increased in recent years as demand for electric vehicles surges. (By Felipe Iturrieta. Writing by Luc Cohen; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Lisa Von Ahn)

Tom3 30 september 2017 12:46

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Macquarie heeft op 31 mei 2016 een lijvig rapport over de lithium markt gepubliceerd. Men is in dit zeer doorwrochte stuk nogal kritisch over het prijspeil na 2017 van het metaal omdat op termijn het aanbod de vraag zeer goed kan bijhouden. Kennelijk is de vraagontwikkeling sedert 2016 veel uitbundiger geweest dan voorspeld: de prijs ligt nog steeds ver boven de evenwichtsprijs va $ 6000 voor een ton LCE. Volgens onze marktvorser Bohlsen zijn er geen tekenen van een prijsdaling waarneembaar. Macquarie is zeer positief over de koersontwikkeling van Albemarle (gezien haar kostprijsvoordelen). Voor dit aandeel zag men een koersontwikkeling van $ 80 naar $ 88 (voor 2017!). De koers beweegt zich nu echter boven de $ 130 en er zijn nu geen zieners meer die een spoedige ineenstorting verwachten. Voor Leclanche daarentegen zag men gouden bergen met een koersdoel > CHF 3. Zo zie je maar weer dat zelfs de dikste rapporten van de grootste deskundigen de plank regelmatig misslaan (moest hierbij even aan onze Tony Seba denken). Bijgaand de link naar het 254 pagina`s tellende rapport:

newagemetals.com/wp-content/uploads/M...

Tom3 30 september 2017 13:44

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Pilbara is 60% groter dan AMG Lithium maar verder qua planning vergelijkbaar met AMG. Minder leuk is dat Pilbara ook tantalum wil gaan winnen. De onderneming die ook medio 2018 op de marktkomt wordt gewaardeerd op een kleine AU$ 1 miljard.

www.bloomberg.com/quote/PLS:AU

The Company has signed key product off-take agreements, including a binding cornerstone off-take agreement with General Lithium, a leading Chinese supplier of lithium products, for the supply of 140,000tpa of 6% chemical-grade spodumene concentrate from Q2 2018 for an initial 6-year period, with the option to extend for a further 4 years. Additionally, Pilbara has also signed an off-take agreement with Ganfeng Lithium, one of China's largest integrated lithium producers, to supply 160,000 tonnes per annum of 6% chemical-grade spodumene over an initial term of 10-years, with two 5-year options to extend up to a further 10-years.

DeZwarteRidder 30 september 2017 15:38

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quote:
Tom3 schreef op 30 september 2017 13:44:
Pilbara is 60% groter dan AMG Lithium maar verder qua planning vergelijkbaar met AMG. Minder leuk is dat Pilbara ook tantalum wil gaan winnen. De onderneming die ook medio 2018 op de marktkomt wordt gewaardeerd op een kleine AU$ 1 miljard.

www.bloomberg.com/quote/PLS:AU

The Company has signed key product off-take agreements, including a binding cornerstone off-take agreement with General Lithium, a leading Chinese supplier of lithium products, for the supply of 140,000tpa of 6% chemical-grade spodumene concentrate from Q2 2018 for an initial 6-year period, with the option to extend for a further 4 years. Additionally, Pilbara has also signed an off-take agreement with Ganfeng Lithium, one of China's largest integrated lithium producers, to supply 160,000 tonnes per annum of 6% chemical-grade spodumene over an initial term of 10-years, with two 5-year options to extend up to a further 10-years.

De huidige omzet van Pilbara is nihil en de beurswaarde is bijna 1 miljard AUD.

Tom3 30 september 2017 16:30

2

En we weten ook nog dat de kostprijs (zonder vervoer) van een ton spodumene bijna 2 keer zo hoog als bij AMG. Afgemeten aan de waarde van Pilbara mag je dan AMG Lithium nu al op minimaal $ 600 miljoen waarderen. Dat zullen die Citigroup bankiers ook gezien hebben. Als je de rest dan waardeert op Euro 800 mio is de hele onderneming ongeveer 1,3 miljard waard. Kunnen we minimaal nog 30% vooruit. Denk dat de VS behoorlijk wakker is geworden door het advies van Citigroup.

[verwijderd] 1 oktober 2017 21:22

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quote:
Tom3 schreef op 30 september 2017 13:44:
Pilbara is 60% groter dan AMG Lithium maar verder qua planning vergelijkbaar met AMG. Minder leuk is dat Pilbara ook tantalum wil gaan winnen.

Dat gaat vaker voorkomen, kwam dit tegen in de laatste uitgave van T.I.C. Bulletin:

The re-birth of tantalum in Western Australia

by Ken Brinsden and Anand Sheth, Pilbara Minerals Ltd

The re-birth and significance of tantalum production from Western Australia as one of the largest, low cost stable suppliers globally. In the past 3 decades, tantalum production from hard rock resources in Western Australia carried the cost for lithium production, as a by-product, but this is now changing with the advent of e-transportation (electric vehicles and e-bikes) and Energy Storage Solutions for the renewable energy sector, made possible by use of lithium batteries. The demand for lithium primarily in these new and burgeoning industries is expected to triple in the next 10 years. Lithium hard rock deposits will become a significant supplier to this sector and several new lithium projects will be commissioned within the next 2 years in Western Australia and a few more in Canada. Some of these new projects, including the existing largest lithium operations, have a significant capacity to produce tantalum as a by-product, at a very commercially profitable cost. These companies are located in risk free jurisdictions / countries, with operations that can produce and supply a high-quality product consistently at competitive prices. These operations will be sustainable and meet all the environmental and ‘conflict-free’ regulatory requirements. The presentation will discuss the production volumes and costs of tantalum concentrates as a by-product of several hard rock lithium mines and shall provide an update on Pilbara’s Pilgangoora lithium – tantalum project, soon to become one of the largest producers and suppliers of lithium and tantalum concentrates.

en deze:

A key issue will be the future of hard-rock lithium supply and how this might impact on by-product tantalum supply. Also addressed will be the outlook for tin and tin slags. The history of tantalum has seen it go from being a by-product to a main product and it now seems quite possible that it will go back to being a by-product again.

DeZwarteRidder 1 oktober 2017 21:28

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Een nieuwe mijn openen duurt 5 tot 10 jaar en vaak nog langer.

No worries.

Tom3 2 oktober 2017 20:44

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Alle majors sluiten dus meerjarige overeenkomsten met afnemers om er zeker van te zijn dat hun investeringen ook gaan renderen. Ook Pilbara en AMG doen dat. Dit heeft tot gevolg dat er een behoorlijke vloer in de lithium- en spodumeneprijs ligt. Bij Pilbara wordt gerept over 10 jarige overeenkomsten. Dat laatste duidt erop dat de afnemers behoorlijk zeker van hun zaak moeten zijn. De lithiummarkt wijkt derhalve behoorlijk af van het gewoonlijke boom en bust patroon in de grondstoffenmarkt:

www.reuters.com/article/us-lithium-pr...

Tom3 2 oktober 2017 21:46

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De gegarandeerde afzet van lithium en de gemaakte prijsafspraken zullen er in mijn ogen toe leiden dat de waarde van AMG veel hoger en vooral stabieler wordt. Dat laatste zal terug te vinden zijn in de gehanteerde multiples. Als de lithiumwinning echt vlekkeloos verloopt zou een waardering van 25% van Albemarle (gerekend naar ebitda verhoudingen) tot de mogelijkheden moeten gaan behoren. Kan het aandeel in theorie nog euro 70 hoger.

Tom3 2 oktober 2017 22:30

0

Door Matt Bohlsen gepost op 1 oktober op Seeking Alpha:

Author’s reply » pone - As of now there is no lithium spot price market, so sources are more company news etc. My link in the article does give lithium carbonate China spot price movements (%), so is one way to track it.
bit.ly/2mkEwQV
The consensus among industry insiders and top level lithium experts is that supply will struggle to come on (very few juniors are fully financed) and demand growth is very strong - hence most see lithium being in deficit until 2020. I think we may some minor oversupply at some stage around 2019 then deficits again after 2020, but prices are unlikely to fall below USD 10,000/t LCE. China spot prices now are around USD 20,000/t.
I just wrote EV monthly news for September and global electric car sales were up 64% in August, and are up 47% ytd - demand is rising very fast.
The China ZEV credit points 10% by 2019 will cause this to accelerate even further.

aandeeltje! 2 oktober 2017 23:22

0

quote:
DeTeEm schreef op 1 oktober 2017 21:22:
[...]

Dat gaat vaker voorkomen, kwam dit tegen in de laatste uitgave van T.I.C. Bulletin:

The re-birth of tantalum in Western Australia

by Ken Brinsden and Anand Sheth, Pilbara Minerals Ltd

The re-birth and significance of tantalum production from Western Australia as one of the largest, low cost stable suppliers globally. In the past 3 decades, tantalum production from hard rock resources in Western Australia carried the cost for lithium production, as a by-product, but this is now changing with the advent of e-transportation (electric vehicles and e-bikes) and Energy Storage Solutions for the renewable energy sector, made possible by use of lithium batteries. The demand for lithium primarily in these new and burgeoning industries is expected to triple in the next 10 years. Lithium hard rock deposits will become a significant supplier to this sector and several new lithium projects will be commissioned within the next 2 years in Western Australia and a few more in Canada. Some of these new projects, including the existing largest lithium operations, have a significant capacity to produce tantalum as a by-product, at a very commercially profitable cost. These companies are located in risk free jurisdictions / countries, with operations that can produce and supply a high-quality product consistently at competitive prices. These operations will be sustainable and meet all the environmental and ‘conflict-free’ regulatory requirements. The presentation will discuss the production volumes and costs of tantalum concentrates as a by-product of several hard rock lithium mines and shall provide an update on Pilbara’s Pilgangoora lithium – tantalum project, soon to become one of the largest producers and suppliers of lithium and tantalum concentrates.

en deze:

A key issue will be the future of hard-rock lithium supply and how this might impact on by-product tantalum supply. Also addressed will be the outlook for tin and tin slags. The history of tantalum has seen it go from being a by-product to a main product and it now seems quite possible that it will go back to being a by-product again.

Combi Tant/Li exact zoals bij AMG.

aandeeltje! 2 oktober 2017 23:28

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Ik heb ook de nodige duimpies uitgedeeld, goed bezig mensen en vooral ook Tom3 ,et zijn functie als Investor Relations AMG.
Keurig schrijven. Stond mij overigens niet hij dat ik ergens gelezen had dat voor lt contract met kin uas 800 het meerdere 50/50 gedeeld wordt? Heb je dat ergens uit gehaald?

aandeeltje! 2 oktober 2017 23:29

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Mischien ook maar eens engelstalige posts gaan maken. Geen probleem mee, iemand well hier?

DeZwarteRidder 3 oktober 2017 07:48

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quote:
aandeeltje! schreef op 2 oktober 2017 23:29:
Mischien ook maar eens engelstalige posts gaan maken. Geen probleem mee, iemand well hier?

Begin maar eens om een mooi stuk te schrijven voor Seeking Alpha; wedden dat de koers daarna omhoog vliegt..?? lol

Tom3 4 oktober 2017 23:32

0

seekingalpha.com/article/4109856-lith...

In 2014 werd nog aangenomen dat de vraag naar LCE 498k ton zou zijn. SQM en Matt Bohlsen gaan nu uit van 800k ton.

seekingalpha.com/article/2306635-asia...

DeZwarteRidder 5 oktober 2017 11:32

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Other promising lithium juniors

Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. (OTCPK:AMVMF), Advantage Lithium (OTCQB:AVLIF), AIS Resources (TSXV:AIS.H), American Lithium Corp. (OTCQB:LIACF), Argentina Lithium and Energy Corp.(OTCQB: OTCQB:PNXLF), Argosy Minerals (OTC:ARYMF), Dajin Resources (OTCPK:DJIFF), Enigri (private), Eramet (EN Paris:ERA), Far Resources (OTCPK:FRRSF), Latin Resources Ltd (OTCPK:LNRDY), Lithium Australia (OTC:LMMFF), LSC Lithium (TSXV:LSC), MetalsTech (ASX:MTC), MGX Minerals (CSE:XMG), Millennial Lithium Corp. (TSXV:ML), NRG Metals Inc. (OTCQB:NRGMF), Sayona Mining (OTC:DMNXF), Standard Lithium (TSXV:SLL), Tawana Resources (ASX:TAW), and Wealth Minerals (OTCQB:WMLLF).

Note that I did not include several promising juniors such as Pilbara Minerals (OTCPK:PILBF
PILBF$0.530.03 6.40%
Pilbara Minerals Limited
52 Week Range0.26 - 0.54 Market Cap.
More »

), Atura Mining (OTCPK:ALTAF), and Kidman Resources (ASX:KDR) as they are now above US$150m market cap and are no longer speculative in my view.

Conclusion

The speculative lithium miner space is indeed highly speculative. Usually the smaller the market cap then the greater the risk/reward ratio. I have briefly covered eight of my favorite speculative lithium miners. Investors should invest cautiously given the speculative nature.

I expect the lithium boom will have 10-20 years of strong lithium demand, which means the cheap speculative lithium plays of today with a solid resource have a chance to do very well. Strong management will be needed to advance each project through the stages to production, and with each advance investors should be well-rewarded.

As usual, all comments are welcome.

Trend Investing

DeZwarteRidder 11 oktober 2017 17:15

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Lithium supply will outstrip demand by 2020 - Expert
Published on Wed, 11 Oct 2017

Investors should take care when investing in ASX-listed lithium stocks as supply catches up with demand, says resources expert Mr Robert Swarbrick. Lithium’s popularity has spiked with all the talk of electric cars, how long can the interest last?

Q - Lithium’s popularity has spiked on expected demand for electric car batteries. Do you see demand remaining high?

A - We’re seeing supply ramp up as more and more companies try and cash in on the electric vehicle hype but with so many in the market, at the end of the day there is going to be more supply than demand and the price will fall.

Projections of global lithium supply predict we will have more supply than demand by 2018 to 2020 and that will drive the price down.

Lithium companies are booming with deposits in the Congo, Australia and South America and there has been a real scramble to ramp up production. There is no rationale on a defined resource or cost of production — just that the share price is going up and in the eyes of the company that just means they can sell their stock at higher levels.

Q - There are a lot of juniors exploring for lithium, do you think there is still room for new discoveries?

A - What we’re seeing at the moment is mines moving from exploration to production and as each comes online, the estimated demand for the product fills up. It will drive down the price and become too expensive to mine.

Production capacity will exceed demand and it has largely been driven by speculation and over-excitement. People have seen this as the next big thing but there is a distinct difference between finding a deposit and getting the deposit into product.

On the speculative end, people are pouring money into lithium projects to try and make a buck but they can often be projects without full backing or mining finance. These are the ones that will be the first to go as soon as the price declines — those that have higher costs of production won’t be feasible if the lithium price drops below a certain level.

Q - What stocks are well poised to make the most of the lithium boom?

A - We have seen larger outfits like Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) exceed of late and they have really got the timing right. They are more advanced, have done the feasibility studies and are almost financed with clear paths to production.

When you stack them up against international projects such as AVZ Minerals or Taruga Gold in the Congo, it’s easy to see why they are doing so well. When you start looking abroad it is harder to get mining finance, to prove your resource and there isn’t always a clear path to sales – sovereign risk is a big player.

A lot of the time it is just speculation, it is amazing that the valuations can be so overstretched.

At the end of the day you can promote your company to all ends but until you prove you can get it out of the ground the stock isn’t worth anything.

Q - How much further will lithium run? What can we learn from the cycles of other resources?

A - I think there is still further for the market to run on speculation, but when you look at the fundamentals it’s had its day.

There are so many lithium producers that there is becoming a clear oversupply. It is similar to what we saw in the iron/ore boom of 2003 to 2005. Everyone said iron-ore would last forever and ever but all that did was end up in an oversupply. Large amounts of money went into countries such as Africa’s Congo, Mongolia and Indonesia during the coal boom but most investors ended up losing all of their capital.

Everyone loves to dream about the future and gets excited at the prospect of lithium but when you put it up against solid revenue streams of traditional resources like gold or coal you see just how risky they can be.

There are predictions that we will have an oversupply as early as 2019 – with mines coming online but a lag in the mega-factories that build the batteries. Alliance Bernstein analyst Paul Gait said late last year in a report called “Lithium: the Big Short” that, though demand for lithium could double, “the lithium frenzy should all end in tears”.

Q - What are your tips for retail investors looking to invest in lithium?

A - Don’t get caught up in the bubble and make sure you know what you are investing in. The biggest thing to do is to de-risk – look at how the companies are financed and how easy the resource is to turn it into a product.

At the speculative end, take the profits while you have them. If you are willing to make a 100 per cent profit and sell two days later, then it has a justifiable risk. Remember should the price start to drop, sell quickly, but if you want to hold long term you have to look at the fundamentals.

Source : Stock Head

voda 11 oktober 2017 17:18

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DZR, je had wel even mijn naam mogen vermelden, als eerste plaatser!

www.iex.nl/Forum/Topic/1323799/1/Lith...

Tom3 11 oktober 2017 18:50

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quote:
DeZwarteRidder schreef op 11 oktober 2017 17:15:
Lithium supply will outstrip demand by 2020 - Expert
Published on Wed, 11 Oct 2017

Source : Stock Head

Onze vriend Bohlsen wijst erop dat de spotprijs in China nog steeds beduidend boven de langetermijncontractprijzen liggen. De prijsvorming is door toedoen van de big four altijd erg ondoorzichtig geweest. Pilbara en AMG hebben niet voor niets meerjarenafnamecontracten gesloten. Tot nu toe is de groei in de vraag steeds hoger geweest dan de groei van het aanbod (anders hadden we ook geen spike gehad) Wie kan de groei van de afname voorspellen? Chinezen kennelijk ook niet. Denk wel dat ik mijn lithiumavontuur exclusief bij AMG ga beleven.

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