beeldscherm schreef op 1 november 2017 09:36:
Shire’s rare-disease portfolio supports a narrow moat, despite historical reliance on acquisitions.
by Karen Andersen
...
We're lowering our fair value estimate to $218 per ADR from $228, based on earlier-than-expected Lialda competition and a higher weighting for equity in our weighted average cost of capital calculation. The major revenue contributor for the firm is Vyvanse, which we forecast to grow to $3.2 billion in sales by 2022 (genericization in 2023), despite our expectations that its European rollout be much slower than in the United States and with significantly lower peak sales. Nevertheless, we think the firm will still be negatively affected when the Vyvanse patents expire, given its reliance on the product. We think Firazyr sales will peak below $600 million in 2017 due to competition from CSL's Haegarda, and that Lialda will see roughly 20% annual declines beginning in 2017 due to limited generic competition (key formulation patents expiring in 2020 will lead to steeper declines). We think Cinryze (from the ViroPharma acquisition) is likely to reach $750 million in global sales in 2017, with sales declining beyond 2017 due to new prophylaxis options from CSL (Haegarda) and Shire (lanadelumab).
750milj v 2017...dat ze zo'n klap nog overleefd heeft..