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Commodities

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Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 15 mei 2006 21:15

Grote snelle prijsfluctuaties worden steeds heftiger....zowel omhoog als omlaag.

Correcties zoals vandaag met zilver -8% en goud bijna -5%

Een gevolg van hefbomen?

Moeten we in de toekomst nog allerter zijn met hoge hefbomen van turbo's of speeders.

gr.fes

[verwijderd] 15 mei 2006 21:19

Ik begin er toch wel wat aan te wennen, deze sell-offs. Hoeveel hebben we er gehad afgelopen 2 jaar? Ik ben de tel kwijtgeraakt.

Vorige keren begon ik in paniek te verkopen maar dat doe ik dus niet meer. Nooit op een rode dag er uitstappen, misschien als het morgen weer groen is het ergste onkruid eruit wieden. Tegelijk zie ik ook weer prachtig kansen. Zilver laag in de 13. Hoop die op te pakken via een turbo met een hefboom in de buurt van 20.

Er komen altijd weer nieuwe kansen langs. Deze bull-markt is nog lang niet aan zijn einde. De wereld-economie draait prima. Minimaal zal deze economische cyclus tot 2008 duren, hopelijk tot 2010.

EIB

[verwijderd] 15 mei 2006 22:51

quote:
Eib schreef:
Er komen altijd weer nieuwe kansen langs. Deze bull-markt is nog lang niet aan zijn einde. De wereld-economie draait prima. Minimaal zal deze economische cyclus tot 2008 duren, hopelijk tot 2010.

EIB

Denk het ook.
Zolang anderen de dollars en de euro's willen acepteren en willen bezitten gaat het feest gewoon door.
Onze bobo's zullen de valuta's met hand en tand verdedigen.
gr.fes

[verwijderd] 17 mei 2006 15:13

..zo denk ik er ook over:

Commodities Boom To Last Over 10 Years

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--A new bull market is underway in commodities that is set to last the next decade or more, Chief Executive of Swiss asset management fund Diapason Commodities Management SA Stephan Wrobel told the Dow Jones European Commodity Investment conference in Frankfurt Tuesday.

"This asset class will allow investors to find returns, diversification, and inflation protection, over the next 10 years. There will be consolidations along the way as there always have been in every bull market in history," he said.

Throughout history, commodity and equity cycles alternate every 18 years, give or take five years, Wrobel said. Right now, a number of catalysts are in place for the current cycle, he added.

"There has been a long underinvestment phase in productive capacity, transport and transformation of commodities, resulting in today's inelasticity of commodities supply. Three billion people are joining the global market economy, creating additional demand growth in this environment of inelasticity," he said. "Higher prices are needed to attract new investments in productive capacity, after a capital investment famine that lasted 20 years," he told delegates.

At the same time, Wrobel said the international dollar-based monetary system is "crippled with debt, very accommodative monetary policies with excessive money supply growth and negative real rates." "A currency debasement process is at work," he added.

Industrialization of China and the rise of Asian consumers are meanwhile generating a boom in demand for commodities. "Asian states are competing with established powers for raw materials. A phase of competition for natural resources has started that will create more geopolitical instability in producing areas," Wrobel said.

"A global power shift from West to East is on the way but also from consumer to producer," he told the conference. Wrobel said there are a lot of "fantasies" about commodities, but recent studies have shown that commodities are no more risky than stocks, offer diversification to an equity/bond portfolio and also offer protection for inflation. "Today, prices in real terms are coming from historically low levels," he added.

www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?con...

[verwijderd] 17 mei 2006 15:20

Ik moet wel zeggen dat ik geen idee heb hoe de komende maanden er uit zullen zien. Zou best nog eens een heel stuk af kunnen bij commodities. Oa Marc Faber waarschuwt voor een scherpe daling. Hij is een autoriteit/kenner/goeroe.....we zullen zien.

[verwijderd] 18 mei 2006 13:44

Kort interview met Jim Rogers:

news.moneycontrol.com/india/news/mark...

[verwijderd] 25 mei 2006 10:55

Hoe zien jullie het beleggen in commodity indices?

Er zijn er volgens mij slechts 4:

1. Reuters CRB Futures Price Index
2. Rogers International Commodity Index
3. Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
4. Dow Jones AIG Commodity Index

Welke heeft de voorkeur en waarom?

[verwijderd] 25 mei 2006 14:36

interview Faber
in.rediff.com/money/2006/may/16faber.htm

[verwijderd] 1 juni 2006 14:29

Commodities: Is the boom over?

Will the Fed's interest-rate hikes pop the commodities bubble?

FORTUNE Magazine) - In 2000 it was the Federal Reserve's rate hikes that finally burst the dot-com bubble. Six years later, history may be repeating itself, this time in commodities.

Seeking to keep inflation in check, the Fed has raised short-term interest rates 16 times since 2004. Normally that would wreak havoc with commodity markets, since higher borrowing costs are a brake on economic growth, and commodities demand ebbs and flows with the economy.

This year, though, with commodities in vogue and demand still surging from India and China, the market has seemed almost immune to higher rates.

Until now, that is. The turning point seemed to be a troublesome report on April inflation - the consumer price index rose 0.6 percent, ahead of expectations. That disabused investors of the notion the Fed was nearly done tightening. Over the past few weeks oil fell from $75 to $71 a barrel; gold went down from $725 to $642 an ounce; and copper slid from $4.13 to $3.96 a pound.

A.G. Edwards commodities analyst Bill O'Grady thinks this dip is long overdue.

"The whole root of this bull market takes you back to 2001, when the Federal Reserve and the central banks in Europe and Japan cut rates in order to protect the economy from a significant decline," O'Grady says. "Thus it would make sense that as that liquidity is drained, prices would fall."

Just as technophiles insisted "This time it's different" six years ago, commodities bulls have a similar rallying cry today. Their "new paradigm" hinges on China.

But as O'Grady points out, China's economy can't keep growing at a 10 percent annual clip if credit-crunched U.S. consumers stop buying so many Chinese goods. Moreover, the bull case for China assumes a near-seamless transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy.

"When Stalin industrialized the Soviet Union, 13 million people died," says O'Grady. "To think that China is going to go through this industrialization without a hitch is just naive."

We're not saying that gold is going back to $300 or copper to $1. We're not even sure that their run is over. There were pundits warning of a dot-com bubble in 1998, remember, and it was another two years before the market finally crashed. What we are saying is that now is not the time to plow a lot of money into commodities.

What about commodities-related stocks that FORTUNE has recommended recently? We like Archer Daniels Midland (Research), the agricultural giant-turned-ethanol play, though not as much at $41 a share as we did when we first cited it in December at $23. The economic and political case for ethanol is still intact.

On the other hand, ADM is a little pricey now, at least compared with Bunge (Research), another agriculture company with ethanol exposure. Bunge, at $58, trades at 14 times earnings, vs. 25 times for ADM.

Copper miner Phelps Dodge (Research) seems a little riskier. We picked it at $72 (split adjusted) in December, and it got as high as $99 in May. Now at $86, the stock has its merits, including a hefty dividend yield (6.2 percent, including special payouts that are continuing), a modest price/earnings ratio (12), and a cautious management team that's hedging against lower copper prices. Still, we worry about what a sharp drop in copper prices might do to Phelps stock.

"We've had a combination of financial speculators driving up copper, which in turn has incited end users to hoard," says Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Oak Associates. "That's not sustainable."

money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortu...

[verwijderd] 1 juni 2006 15:01

Commodity prijzen zijn zeer belangrijke gegevens voor koopkracht(inflatie) en dus ook rentevoet.

... in order for the Fed to stop raising rates, two bubbles must pop: Housing and Commodities. There is now overwhelming evidence that housing has turned down. All economic indicators - Housing starts, completions, mortgage activity, sales of new and existing homes - you name it - have topped out. And realtors will tell you that house prices, particularly those in the hot areas on the East and West coasts, have turned downward. Prices of condominiums in my home town of Philadelphia are down anywhere from 5% to 10% from last year.

So why didn't the Fed pause raising rates? Commodities. In early May, just before the Fed meeting, gold soared to a 26-year high and oil prices topped $75 a barrel. Furthermore, industrial metal prices, such as for copper, aluminum, nickel, and zinc were setting all-time highs. If the Fed wanted to maintain its anti inflationary credentials, which are particularly important with a new chairman, it could not promise that inflation is under control.

finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/f...

[verwijderd] 1 juni 2006 15:10

quote:
Eib schreef:
Ik begin er toch wel wat aan te wennen, deze sell-offs. Hoeveel hebben we er gehad afgelopen 2 jaar? Ik ben de tel kwijtgeraakt.

Vorige keren begon ik in paniek te verkopen maar dat doe ik dus niet meer. Nooit op een rode dag er uitstappen, misschien als het morgen weer groen is het ergste onkruid eruit wieden. Tegelijk zie ik ook weer prachtig kansen. Zilver laag in de 13. Hoop die op te pakken via een turbo met een hefboom in de buurt van 20.

Er komen altijd weer nieuwe kansen langs. Deze bull-markt is nog lang niet aan zijn einde. De wereld-economie draait prima. Minimaal zal deze economische cyclus tot 2008 duren, hopelijk tot 2010.

EIB

Ik hoop dat je al vóór deze tweede crash gewied hebt, Eib? Want we hebben nu toch echt continu lagere toppen, dieper bodems... Alle bladeren moeten kennelijk van de boom geschud worden.

[verwijderd] 9 juni 2006 10:22

Nogmaals uiteen gezet de mening van Jim Rogers. Een echt interview is het niet hoewel de titel anders doet vermoeden:

deepwealth.blogspot.com/2006/06/inter...

[verwijderd] 9 juni 2006 12:45

quote:
robbedouche2 schreef:
[quote=Eib]
Ik begin er toch wel wat aan te wennen, deze sell-offs. Hoeveel hebben we er gehad afgelopen 2 jaar? Ik ben de tel kwijtgeraakt.

Vorige keren begon ik in paniek te verkopen maar dat doe ik dus niet meer. Nooit op een rode dag er uitstappen, misschien als het morgen weer groen is het ergste onkruid eruit wieden. Tegelijk zie ik ook weer prachtig kansen. Zilver laag in de 13. Hoop die op te pakken via een turbo met een hefboom in de buurt van 20.

Er komen altijd weer nieuwe kansen langs. Deze bull-markt is nog lang niet aan zijn einde. De wereld-economie draait prima. Minimaal zal deze economische cyclus tot 2008 duren, hopelijk tot 2010.

EIB
[/quote]

Ik hoop dat je al vóór deze tweede crash gewied hebt, Eib? Want we hebben nu toch echt continu lagere toppen, dieper bodems... Alle bladeren moeten kennelijk van de boom geschud worden.

Niets aan de hand, ik ken de klappen van de zweep nu onderhand wel.

Gisteren weer eerste aankoop van BHP gedaan nu die weer onder de $40 koerst.

EIB

faites-vos-jeux 10 juni 2006 23:57

Base metals holding above support, for now (UBS vrijdag):

Bearish chart patterns are also adding to the negative view with prices trading below short-term (Cu, Ni, Zn) or long-term moving averages (Al, Sn, Pb). Copper and zinc led the move lower with losses of 6.2% and 8.4% respectively. Copper failed to take any benefit from news of the closure of the La Caridad mine in Mexico, albeit on a temporary basis. Today’s US trade data is important; if this reverses the strong run of the dollar, then it might provide some support to the metals. Chart closes tonight are likely to be crucial and will set the tone for next week. Shorter-term moving averages in copper have already made a bearish cross and further weakness is indicated should prices close the week below the recent floor at $7,250/t. Aluminium prices are threatening to test key support at the $2,500/t level again having closed below the 100-day moving average currently situated at $2,603/t. Aluminium stocks in LME warehouses rose sharply this morning but this could be relocation from China, as Shanghai stocks dropped by over 20kt this week. Overall, the continuing concerns on the macroeconomic front coupled with bearish charts suggests the downside will be favoured but, as we have discussed above, metals such as copper, zinc and nickel, should prove to be more resilient. Better buying opportunities are likely to emerge in the foreseeable future.

[verwijderd] 12 juni 2006 21:45

Maandelijks metals report van Fortis:

www.thebulliondesk.com/content/report...

[verwijderd] 13 juni 2006 16:41

UPDATE 1-IMF doesn't see big commodities market correction

today.reuters.com/business/newsArticl...

[verwijderd] 20 juni 2006 08:16

Energy Update
David Petch
June 18th, 2006

The commodity boom currently underway in all areas is due do shortages. Shortages are the result of different circumstance depending upon the commodity. Different commodities will be examined but all stem from a common thread and will only be amplified by its shortages: Energy.

Oil
The most important source of energy is oil and related products. It is the most compact form of portable energy for easy use. Currently, around 25 billion barrels of oil/year are consumed and with China oil consumption increasing 2% year over year, over 500 million more barrels are required next year. If no other countries decrease their oil consumption, then there will be real felt shortages next year. The more and more I read about oil production and shortages (best book by far is “Twilight in the Desert” by Matt Simmons), this is going to be an extreme event. Current sources of oil are declining and India and China have economies growing at 9-10% per year, so unless more oil is found, prices will rise. There will be some point in the future where oil/gasoline prices will decrease consumption, but peak oil is looming and any decline in consumption will be met with declining production. If this relationship holds for the next 15 years, then oil prices are likely to rise much higher. In North America (excluding Mexico, where 66% of their population is under the age of 30), Europe and Japan, demographics are kicking in and most people nowadays are extremely out of shape. What better to have cars take one to the grocery store, a gas powered lawn mower to cut the grass etc. etc. All of today’s inventions are designed to make life easier, so baby boomers are likely to simply grumble at the pump and pay for now.

It is amazing how much gas is used to keep lawns trim. On a Sunday afternoon when one person starts to cut their lawn, all the lazies (myself included) hear the sound and think “better get out and cut the grass before the city comes and cuts it. Within on hour, there is a smell of gasoline all over the neighborhood. My neighbor has a push mower and I plan to get one, but I have to find a good one, but am on the prowl. Oil is not only going into cars, but it is an essential requirement for increase in GDP. When peak oil hits, GDP of each nation potentially stands to collapse, so intense control for remaining oil will likely occur. A contraction in global GDP will result in an implosion of export items. Economies will quickly revert to localized economies rather than a global economy, simply because there will not be an energy infrastructure in place to support it. There always will be global trade, but as in the past, that market will be for the rich. This is over the course of the next few decades, but the changes down the pike are going to be fast and furious.

With oil playing such a big role in the future, oil fields will be nationalized for strategic military control in the sake of national security. This will happen in the US and it will happen in Canada within the next 15 years, that is a virtual guarantee. In the coming few years, there are maximum gains to be made in the commodities market in politically secure areas of the world (in the wise words of Donald Coxe; for those who do not know who he is or listen to him, go the following thread: www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webca... ) until such an event occurs. A debt implosion is likely to occur after 2010 when the effect of baby boomers really starts to kick in. This is why I am a strong proponent of investing 50% of profits from the energy sector in 2008-2009 into gold and silver bullion.

Natural Gas
Natural Gas production peaked in Canada in 2001 and is slowly declining. In fact within 8 years, there will be no more natural gas available from mainstream sources. Natural gas will be derived from coal bed methane, coal-to liquids and liquid natural gas (LNG) at a significantly higher price. One way to sidestep this for those of us in cold climates (-40 oC or –40 oF (both temperature scales are identical at this temperature) is to get geothermal heating. It cost around $22,000 for current homeowners by time installation and landscaping is done, but pays for itself within 7-10 years). Energy from natural gas will be obsolete in the US within 10 years unless people allow LNG terminals to be built. If people do not allow these developments soon, then there will be a 10-year delay in the available infrastructure to be set up and 10 years of pain.

Oil Sands, Shale Oil
Oil sands in Venezuela in my eyes will not be developed. After that country’s leader Chavez recently took away oil fields, no one in their right mind would invest the required funds to develop the infrastructure in fear of confiscation. Shale oil/oil sands in Utah and surrounding States sounds great, but there is already a severe lack of water in that neck of the woods. Oil sand projects are very water intensive and a reasonably abundant water supply is required. Water will be a limiting factor in developing the Athabasca oil sands/Saskatchewan oil fields in Canada. I strongly think a desalinization plant will be built to provide necessary water (with a background salinity to prevent pipes freezing in the cold winters), likely in Churchill Manitoba. This is in the distant future, so I do not think politicians will even have this on their radar screen. There is a limitation as to how much oil will be taken out, especially if any severe droughts kick in.

Asset Control By Central Government
Oil Sands in Canada will be one of the most important sources of oil in the future, which is why I see them being seized by the Canadian Federal Government in 15-20 years. Currently, Canadian provinces and territories currently have control over their own assets. With the way things are headed, a single source of control will likely be sought under the umbrella of national security. There is news of terrorists being arrested in Canada today. Call me paranoid, but until I see hard facts, I would suspect media influence which could be blown into bigger things down the road and grasped by government to inject fear into the Canadian populous. Creating a smoke and mirror campaign by instilling fear into the populace will cause the public to voluntarily submit their freedoms to the government in replacement of fascism. The times we are entering are going to be tumultous, so do not believe everything you read or hear. The mass media is a way to disseminate information to the public. The real history and what is told are two totally different things.

For successful investors, it is important to take positions in reasonably good companies and hold them for more than one day. Large profits are to be made in the coming 2-3 years. This is how the most money is made in bull markets, so hang tight.

Water
Water is used for industrial purposes, life, crops, etc. etc. It is the single most important molecule in life and shortages will spark wars. Within 10 years, attempts to mine water from the Great Lakes of North America are likely to by attempted by certain southern States. Mining refers to taking more than 1% of the total volume each year, because the Great Lakes only replenish 1% of their total volume each year. Desalinization plants can provide water, but this requires energy. We are nearing a shift in the crosscurrent of energy consumption; it will be from personal energy consumption to government en

ycdtosay 20 juni 2006 10:33

De olie/mijnbouw boom wordt door velen als een bubble gezien die haar einde nadert. De Chinezen denken er iig. anders over (van www.ft.com): "Whether it should be called a long march or a safari, China’s leaders are all bending their steps towards Africa. The seven-country tour of Africa by Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, marks the third visit to the continent by a senior Chinese leader this year and demonstrates the extent of China’s surging demand for the continent’s natural resources.".
Op lange termijn blijft het m.i. een interessante sector, gewoon rustig een LT positie opbouwen.

Grt, Willem

[verwijderd] 20 juni 2006 10:36

quote:
ycdtosay schreef:
De olie/mijnbouw boom wordt door velen als een bubble gezien die haar einde nadert. De Chinezen denken er iig. anders over (van www.ft.com): "Whether it should be called a long march or a safari, China’s leaders are all bending their steps towards Africa. The seven-country tour of Africa by Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, marks the third visit to the continent by a senior Chinese leader this year and demonstrates the extent of China’s surging demand for the continent’s natural resources.".
Op lange termijn blijft het m.i. een interessante sector, gewoon rustig een LT positie opbouwen.

Grt, Willem

Zo denk ik er ook over. Ik zie op KT wel wat van de prijs afgaan als Iran inbindt. Daar staat tegenover dat het orkaanseizoen begonnen is. Dat gaat ongetwijfeld weer voor "spektakel" zorgen. Daarnaast start er weer een periode waarin het verbruik hoger is dan gemiddeld en de olieprijs is nog steeds niet dik onder de $ 70 gegaan...

Gr Postzak

[verwijderd] 21 juni 2006 09:09

Fraai stuk van Deutsche Bank "China's commodity hunger".

www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_...

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