Global iron ore glut threatens Chinese miners
Reuters quoted BHP Billiton as saying that mainland iron ore miners face a rising challenge from increased overseas supplies of raw material for steel and some higher cost capacity will probably be forced to close.
Mr Michiel Hovers VP of iron ore marketing at BHP said that “The gain in global production is being led by Australia and Brazil and their new, low cost output will displace marginal suppliers in China.”
Mr Hovers said that "Seaborne supply growth will come largely from Australia and Brazil. This new supply will be low cost seaborne and displace marginal supply from high cost domestic Chinese producers and other lower-quality iron ore imports into China."
Mr Claudio Alves global marketing and sales director for Vale said that “The company plans to raise output by almost 50% by 2018. The biggest producers, including Vale, BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals, have invested billions of dollars to expand output, betting on sustained growth in demand from China, the biggest buyer. Iron ore fell into a bear market in March amid forecasts for a global glut.”
According to data from The Steel Index, ore with 62% content delivered to Tianjin has lost 21% this year to USD 106 per dry tonne. The benchmark price fell to USD 104.70 on March 10, the lowest level since October 2012. Prices may decline to USD 95 in the Q4.
According to Australia's Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, if prices drop to USD 100, supplies in China may be hurt as mainland mines with high production costs are forced to cut output or close. By comparison, Rio Tinto can be profitable above USD 36 and BHP's break even is USD 38.
Global seaborne supplies will increase by 114 million tonnes to 1.25 billion tonnes this year, Morgan Stanley estimated in a report. That would increase the worldwide surplus to 71 million tonnes this year from 900,000 tonnes last year.
Mr Alves said that "What's happening now is the major iron ore producers are bringing considerable new capacity. Citing a rise of about 108 million tonnes this year and 90 million next year. Most of the tonnage is very competitive."
He said that it would take time to absorb that pickup in iron ore supply, forecasting that China's imports will rise to more than 816 million tonnes this year from about 743 million tonnes last year. It will make some pressure in terms of price, create some volatility.
Source – Reuters