Rio Tinto Mine Delay Shows Block Caving, Copper Supply Risk - Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings said that the delay and higher than expected cost of Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi mine project highlights the risks associated with block caving, an underground hard rock mining method, which could have implications for copper supply and pricing. However, CRU expects block caves to account for more than a fifth of the growth in potential copper supply by 2025 and to represent around 10% of the unadjusted copper mine supply by 2025.
Fitch-rated mining companies Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper and First Quantum are most exposed to copper. Copper is less material for BHP Group, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Teck Resources, Vale and Glencore due to product diversification.
Rio Tinto announced last week that its Oyu Tolgoi project cost could increase by USD 1.9 billion to USD 7.2 billion. Capital costs for block cave mining are significant at more than USD 5 billion for large-scale block caves like Oyu Tolgoi, according to CRU. Rio Tinto also pushed back expectations for initial production by 16 months to 30 months to between May 2022 and June 2023. Challenging ground conditions causing stability risks were cited as the rationale.
Rio Tinto's credit profile is not negatively affected by the delay and higher project investment due to the company's diversification, conservative balance sheet, strong cash flow and position in global mining. Fitch did not have any earnings from the block cave expansion in its rating case forecast for Rio Tinto due to the complexity of the project and lack of full visibility around the commissioning schedule.
Oyu Tolgoi will be one of the largest copper mines in the world producing about 500,000 tonnes of copper annually once completed. Growth in underground cave mining is being fueled by depletion of orebodies, high production rates and low operating costs. However, many projects encounter challenges delaying ramp up and raising costs and have less flexibility versus conventional mining methods to respond to issues that may arise. The caving industry is also moving toward the next generation of caving geometries and scenarios, involving greater depths and competent rock-mass environments that are likely to be less predictable and present new challenges.
Source : Strategic Research Institute