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Resparc

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veepee
0
Ik heb dit weekeind de duitse kranten/bladen er eens op nageslagen voor zover dat kon. Daarin wordt druk gespeculeerd over de "uitslag" a.s. zondag. Er zijn volgens deze berichten een aantal issues. Een is dat van de 10 mrd garantie verstrekt door de deelstaat en stad aan HSH Nordbank, er 3 mrd (nog) niet door de EU mededingingscommissaris is goedgekeurd. De meesten denken echter dat de ECB die 3 mrd wel gaat meetellen maar wellicht dat daar dan nog een besluit van de Europese commissie voor nodig is. Verder meldt men dat de scheepvaartkredieten nog steeds te risicovol worden geacht door de ECB en dat deze zou eisen dat er 10-20% op wordt afgeschreven. Er staat 20 mrd van dat spul op de balans bij HSH Nordbank.
Tot slot meldt men dat de steun voor landesbanken als HSH Nordbank een stuk minder is en vooral een stuk minder politiek. Er wordt op meerdere plaatsen gemeldt dat men vermoedt dat er ten minste 1 Duitse bank moet bloeden om het bloedbad in andere landen als Griekenland, Italie, Cyprus e.d. aldaar aanvaardbaar te maken. Dit zou dan HSH Nordbank (het meest genoemd) of IKB moeten worden. Nogmaals, dit zijn naar mijn idee geen feiten maar journalistieke interpretatie, wel gepubliceerd in kwaliteitskranten.
Het lijkt me vooral om die extra afschrijvingen te gaan en of de aandeelhouders dat willen ophoesten waarbij verdere steun van staat, deelstaat of stad waarschijnlijk niet haalbaar.
Ik ben zelfs ingestapt onder de 30 EUR en zie wel waar het schip strandt :-)
Hoover
0
M.i als er publiek geld in moet, (en de Deelstaat is publiek geld ) bijvoorbeeld doordat de garantie van de deelstaat wordt verhoogd, moet er een of andere vorm van burdensharing zijn. (Espirio Santo, SNS, Cyprus, Ierse banken). Je zou kunnen beargumenteren dat p/l losses al worden afgeschreven door de a/o's, maar het lijkt me sterk als de EC hier mee accoord zou gaan. Nu zou de bank ook een niuwe investeerder kunnen binnentrekken voor 1 a 2 mrd (0-20% van het shippingbook) en i lees af en toe dat er Chineese geinteresseerden zijn. E er natuurlijk minderheid aandeelhouder, JC Flowers, die misschien de truckendoos wil opentrekken.
Hoover
0
artikel Financial times d.d afgelopen maandag geeft e.e.a. goed weer:

HSH Nordbank, the world’s largest shipping lender, is seen by bankers in Germany as one of the most likely candidates to fail the tests. Senior executives at the Hamburg and Kiel-based lender said they were concerned about the hit that HSH would have to take on its shipping portfolio, following intensive discussions with ECB officials in recent weeks.
“One of the explicit aims of the comprehensive assessment is to create a level playing field between banks from 19 countries and, through peer reviews and strict quality control, make the banks as comparable as possible,” said an ECB spokesperson.
Executives at HSH are concerned that the ECB will seek to make examples of certain lenders to show it has been tough on the banks and that its stress tests and asset quality review are credible.
“If you look at it from a European perspective, HSH and NordLB are the two shipping banks and if you want to show you’re eliminating something we are the weaker one,” said a member of HSH’s supervisory board.
Another HSH insider said that a hefty haircut on the shipping portfolio would cause “big problems” for the bank. “It’s a very close call,” said another. The bank declined to comment.
HSH had €20bn in shipping at the end of June, nearly a fifth of its total assets. A further write down of its portfolio would increase the amount the bank has to pay its state owners in return for a guarantee against its losses. That could throw the bank’s business model, which is under review by the European Commission, into question a member of HSH’s supervisory board warned.
While NordLB, another Landesbank, and Commerzbank also have hefty shipping portfolios, making them among the top three shipping lenders in Germany, analysts say the fact both are better diversified than HSH means there is less cause for concern. NordLB’s €16.2bn in shipping is a lower proportion of its overall €199bn in assets, while Commerzbank has €12.8bn in shipping out of total assets of €583bn.
The ECB stress tests are seen as a potentially pivotal moment for the Landesbank sector, where change is usually easier to effect outside of Germany. While the regional lenders have reduced their balance sheets since the financial crisis, some bankers and academics believe there should be further consolidation among the five main remaining Landesbanks.
Jörg Rocholl, president of the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin, said: “The political connections of Landesbanken in Germany remain very strong so that the prospect for change from within the country remains weak. The AQR is thus a highly welcome trigger to carefully review their role again.”
Local politicians have distanced themselves from Landesbanken since the financial crisis saw some lenders fail and others bailed out by state owners, to the chagrin of the German electorate.
Alexander Radwan, a member of the Bundestag’s finance committee, said: “Since the financial crisis, the Landesbanken have, to some extent, become depoliticised so it should be easier to carry out consolidation.”

zeurpietje
0
komt net een bericht op IEX dat de uitslag van de stresstest is uitgelekt. bij de banken die falen zitten geen duitse banken!!!
nu maar afwachten of deze info klopt.
[verwijderd]
0
Handelsblatt gaf dit vanmorgen ook al aan, pfff....Rex.
Zelfs een crisissituatie zouden ze aankunnen, valt mij weer mee.
Ga zo even kijken of er nog wat aanbod is onder in de 30 euro.

FrankfurtDie HSH Nordbank hat den Gesundheitscheck der europäischen Aufsichtsbehörden wohl bestanden. Nach den Gesprächen mit den Prüfern deute alles darauf hin, dass die kriselnde Landesbank durch den Test gekommen sei, sagten drei mit dem Vorgang vertraute Personen am Mittwoch der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters. Die HSH, die schwer unter der Krise in der Schifffahrt leidet, galt in Deutschland als größter Wackelkandidat bei dem europaweiten Bankencheck. Auch bei anderen deutschen Geldhäusern dürften bei dem Test Finanzkreisen zufolge keine größeren Kapitallücken zum Vorschein kommen.
Hoover
0
By Nicholas Brautlecht
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Talks between bank, auditors
indicate that HSH Nordbank is set to pass the ECB’s
Comprehensive Assessment, Reuters reports, citing three people
familiar with the situation.
• Reuters says bank has ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets above 5.5% threshold in stress test’s adverse scenario
• HSH Nordbank will get the results of the exam on Thursday, Reuters reports
• HSH Nordbank decline to comment, Reuters says
• ECB declined to comment on individual institutions or speculation, Reuters says
• Read the story here: tinyurl.com/lpcwcqq
[verwijderd]
0
@Hoover, durf jij E. 35.50 te geven ?
Zo ja, dan doe ik met je mee, desnoods een euro-tje meer.
modaaltje
0
Gelukkig gisteren nog een plukje bijgekocht op € 30,00. :-)
Dus is mijn verlies nu wat minder.
Hoover
0

By Charles Daly
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Buy HSH Nordbank’s EUR FRN 2017 LT2
at 78.50 and Monte Paschi’s EUR ex-7.99% Perpetual T1 at 70.50
as recent price action looks overdone, Gildas Surry, analyst at
BNP, writes in client note.
• Expects HSH Nordbank to pass the AQR on Sunday, cites recognition of guarantee and bank’s statement about the review in its 2Q earnings release
• Expects Monte Paschi to pass thanks only to YTD capital measures, when lender raised EU2b net
• NOTE: HSH Nordbank is set to pass the comprehensive assessment, Reuters reported earlier, citing three people familiar
Hoover
0
ik had die Monte's iets te vroeg gekocht maar op 69.50% heb je wellicht een goede deal. Wel hoge unprovisioned NPL portfolio maar deze bonds (XS0121342827) kun je alleen afschrijven in als er belasting geld inkomt. Als ze door de AQR komen hoeft dit niet.
Hoover
0
Volgens mij moet je die Monte's hebben. Ze komen niet door de AQR dus zullen de aandeelhouders geld moeten ophoesten. Aangezien ze net 5mrd hebben opgehaald in de zomer zullen ze niet blij zijn (op zijn zachtst gezegd). Ik denk dat het tekort te managen is en dan vliegen de bondjes terug richting hoge hoge 80.
Hoover
0
By Sonia Sirletti and Nicholas Comfort
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA and Banca Carige SpA, two of 15 Italian lenders in the European Central Bank’s euro-area bank health check, are set to face capital shortfalls they’ll need to plug, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
The two Italian lenders are currently seen reporting a capital hole under the most severe of the ECB’s stress-test scenarios, said the person, who asked to not be identified because the matter is private. The banks are unlikely to have raised sufficient capital this year to fill the shortfall and will probably have to find fresh funds, the person said.
“Monte Paschi and Carige are the banks most at risk in failing the review, even if I rule out results that can create a systemic risk that may damage markets,” Wolfram Mrowetz, the chairman of Alisei Sim, a Milan brokerage, said by telephone.
“A potential hole will be manageable for Monte Paschi, given the recovery path undertaken, while for Carige the situation appears more complex.”
Carige fell as much as 5 percent in Milan today and was 1.7 percent lower at 8.91 cents at 9:33 a.m. Monte Paschi declined
1.8 percent to 89.8 cents. The 49-member STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index fell 0.7 percent.

Pop. Vicenza

The ECB’s stress test is the second part of the central bank’s Comprehensive Assessment of bank balance sheets with evaluations in a so-called baseline scenario and in an adverse scenario. While other Italian lenders may also have insufficient capital under stress tests, they have already raised funds to immediately fill the gap, the person said.
Banks will be required to show that their ratio of core capital to risk-weighted assets can remain above 5.5 percent over three years after a hypothetical recession and bond-market collapse. Lenders with a shortfall will have two weeks to submit a capital plan. They will then have have nine months to fill capital holes resulting from the tougher scenario.
Some small cooperative banks, including Banca Popolare di Vicenza, may have a residual gap that needs to be filled, according to the person. All 15 Italian lenders under review are seen passing the asset quality review, the first step of the ECB exercise, the person said.
The ECB is set to publish results on Oct. 26, after the ECB’s Governing Council signs off on them.
Spokesmen for Paschi and Carige declined to comment, while an official for Popolare di Vicenza said the bank is not aware of the assessment’s results.

Stock Sales

“The ECB can’t comment on individual institutions or speculation. Any inferences drawn as to the final outcome of the exercise would be highly speculative until the results are final,” the ECB said in an e-mailed statement.
Paschi, based in Siena, and Genoa-based Carige already raised capital this year selling new shares to investors. Monte Paschi increased the size of its rights offer by 2 billion euros
($2.5 billion) to 5 billion euros in April to build a buffer to absorb “eventual negative impacts” from the review, the bank said at the time.
Carige sold 800 million euros of stock in July and is in talks to sell two insurance units to Apollo Management Holdings LP.

devil80
0
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