SNSN schreef op 17 juli 2014 12:23:
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"Necessary" for kpn and ALL its current shareholders.... (for details read last weeks posts)
If briefly, each group of shareholders has its own strategy to achieve its own objectives.... So, there is a large number (in principle infinite number) of possible active (and/or passive) trading strategies (you may google it for details).
Till ~ Jun 18 one of the most common (among specific for kpn) active strategies was "m&a arbitrage" speculation (often used by hedge funds). Basically they were waiting for a "price jump" on the deal approval announcement.…(usually that generates almost risk-free return). Among other (not specific) active strategies you may find different long/short volatility trading (scalpers, local trend-followers, contra-trend, etc., etc.)
However, in case of kpn's e-plus deal, the prob for the deal to be approved was too high, and almost all active traders knew that well a long ago. Thus, the "risk" (for not approval) was very low, so that the expected “price jump” was negligible ...., and the event of "approval" itself could not influence the prices essentially. That's why, knowing all this story, the most advanced "m&a specs" started to leave kpn on June 18 when we got a clear signal that the main (active) resistance zone ~2.78-2.80 was NOT even tested properly....(see old posts). But, much less advanced "m&a specs" were still waiting till the "event" itself, and started to leave kpn on Jul 2 just after the deal approval announcement. Actually they had to sell their "active stakes" (doing it as high as possible), and be substituted by another group of "active shareholders" (trying to buy as lower as possible) with another (new) set of strategies …. In case of kpn those "newcomers" should have a bit more longer-durations for "active strategies" and their objectives had to be more linked to the company fundamentals (diffusion process, no “jumps“). Usually all such (underlying) processes together lead to the "necessary changes" in "active shareholders" structure....
Of course, other (more conventional) active strategies were playing some important role speeding up the price-fall since June 18, and then since Jul 2, by decreasing the time available for a necessary (smooth) substitution of "old specs" by another new group of specs - "newcomers"
That's a very simplified schematic "model" .... demonstrating just one type of underlying processes and "necessary" changes in "active shareholders" structure.