*Justin* schreef op 17 juni 2015 23:08:
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ING ziet het Duitse consortium als gunstig voor TomTom, omdat zij andere marktgebieden open laten voor TomTom, waardoor TomTom in bepaalde markten 'near monopolist' wordt.
De gever van dit rapport vroeg me om het niet te delen, heb ik ook niet gedaan. Ik doe slechts een klein stukje bij deze hoge uitzondering en deze uitzonderlijke situatie. En analisten halen hier ook informatie, dus 'quid pro quo' (voor wat hoort wat).
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A potential sale of Nokia HERE could be a
strong catalyst for TomTom’s share price. We see two scenarios that could provide significant upside for TomTom and we see limited downside, if any, in potential less-favourable scenarios.
Positive scenarios would be: (1)
a bidding war and consequent strong sale price for Nokia HERE, which could increase the scarcity value of TomTom and
might even lead to a bidding war for TomTom; and (2) if a strategic buyer were to purchase HERE, ie,
a consortium of automotive companies or any other company that wishes to own the map business for its own usage, this would leave TomTom as a
near global monopolist/ duopolist in all mapping categories (in-car navigation, location-based services, live services, etc).
Less-positive scenarios would be: (1) a sale of Nokia HERE to private equity, as this could lead to Nokia HERE becoming a stronger competitor; (2) a disappointing selling price; or (3) no sale of Nokia HERE. This last scenario is possible as given the number and size of potential interested companies, a bidder would need to be confident of having deep enough pockets to win a potential bidding war.
A successful bid for Nokia HERE might leave TomTom as the sole independent mapmaker in the world, which might preclude a takeover of TomTom; however, in our view this would still be a positive, as we believe this would enable TomTom to increase its market share significantly. We also stress that even in the less positive scenarios that we identify, we believe TomTom offers sufficient upside potential without any M&A-driven valuation support.