SNSN schreef op 17 oktober 2018 11:56:
First time the company did not "outperform" its own "expectations" (read yesterday post). Sure, it's good, assuming the company has stopped wrong practice of fake "forecasts".
The most probable reason was a lower than expected demand on EUV systems for this year, as well as for 2019. Indeed, instead of earlier announced (planed) shipment of at least 20 systems for 2018 and at least 30, or more systems for 2019, the actual shipment for this year was scaled down to 18 EUV systems and just to 30 systems (not more) for 2019.
Don't also forget that 2 EUV systems (out of 20-22 planed for 2018) were actually delivered in Q4/2017. Thus, given total expected shipment for 2018 was scaled to 18 systems, there was no new (extra) demand for EUV systems in 2018 that could fill in the 'gap' caused by early delivery.
There is, of course, a very small chance for some delay in expansion of production capacity. However, this is highly unlikely due to several reasons.
Our forecast (sales = ~2.93, EPS ~1.72), among some other stuff, accounted for actual company capacity for at least 20-22 EUV systems this year.
As for the price dynamics, the stock is in the mt-downtrend since Jul 24, testing the r-zone ~163.5-166.5.
If briefly, after hitting the lower edge on Oct 11, the stock is rising within the downtrend channel towards its upper border ~167 today, determined by the 'falling-top-line' since Jul 24.
Thus, standard downwards 'border reaction' towards the lower downtrend edge ~139 can't be excluded.
Don't also forget that almost all 'real rebounds' (since 2015) were signaled by 'double-bottom' patterns. So, a new 'low' at around ~140-130, or lower can't be excluded.
Good luck.