SNSN schreef op 2 november 2018 19:26:
[...]
Business as usual...
The stock is just back to its pattern 'rising wedge' since Oct 25 (read just above).
By the way, you were informed (read just above) of the most probable 'normal trading range' for today, as well as about possible 'premature' (fake) 'break out'. Take also a look at the same fake (premature) 'outbreak' on Oct 17 (within the 'rising wedge' since Oct 11).
In general, such a 'trick' - 'premature' (fake) 'break out' - is just a profs' tool to lock in small players/retailers. Sometimes it does work...
Indeed, it was easy to see there was NO any new objective "positive" info/reason for the stock to move upwards this morning, breaking out off classic 'pattern' (rising wedge) formed for already several days (process stationarity). Remember, certain type of p/v/t-distributions is a necessary underlying driver for each type of classic patterns, as well as a necessary condition for short-term 'stationarity' of stochastic price processes...(may be broken by just new & objective info - the info that all traders understand in the same way). In this current case, as you may see, there was NO such "positive info" neither yesterday (just negative on 'aapl'), nor today. So, why should all of a sudden the stock leave its (classic) pattern, rising up so fast?
Anyway, just take into account that 'rising wedge' patters are usually broken down in ~85% cases. This statistics is conditional on process stationarity, i.e. if briefly it's conditional on absence of any new objective info within the pattern's duration (time to maturity). As an example, just looking backward you could see that all previous 'rising wedges' (Aug 17, Sep 12, Oct 11 within the mid-term downtrend since Jul 24) were broken down.
Good luck and nice weekend everybody.