Hopper58 schreef op 10 maart 2025 12:13:
Goldman Sachs: AI Stocks' Long-Term Prospects Remain Bright (NVDA)
Mar. 10, 2025 at 7:40 a.m. ET
GuruFocus News
Since 2025, AI trading has faced significant volatility, punctuated by the rise of DeepSeek, which has notably impacted the US stock market. Investors are now questioning whether the AI trading boom is over. Goldman Sachs analysts Ryan Hammond and David J. Kostin indicate in a recent report that although short-term market recovery might require "position clearing" or improvements in economic data, continued advancements in AI technology and earnings growth will eventually attract investors back. Goldman believes AI trading will expand, with "third-phase AI trades"—companies that can achieve revenue growth through AI—being more appealing than "second-phase AI trades."
Goldman classifies AI stocks into four phases: "First phase" includes AI chip stocks led by NVIDIA (NVDA, Financial); "second phase" covers AI infrastructure stocks; "third phase" involves companies leveraging AI for revenue generation; and "fourth phase" comprises companies driven by AI-enhanced productivity. Recently, AI trading has been hit by downward revisions of economic growth expectations and position adjustments, leading to concerns about corporate AI spending capabilities. Many second and third phase AI stocks have been highly favored by investors, resulting in over-positioning.
Since the S&P 500 index peaked on February 19, NVIDIA (NVDA, Financial) has lagged behind the S&P equal weight index by 16 percentage points. AI infrastructure stocks and AI revenue-generating stocks have underperformed by 9 and 7 percentage points, respectively, while AI productivity stocks have fared the best with only a 3 percentage point lag. Despite this, Goldman remains optimistic about AI's long-term potential, expecting technological advancements and earnings growth to renew investor focus on AI stocks.
Goldman notes that third-phase AI stocks are more attractive than second-phase stocks due to slowing AI capital expenditures by large corporations and declining AI costs, shifting investor attention from infrastructure to technology application and revenue streams. Moreover, second-phase AI stocks still have slightly higher relative valuations than their historical averages, while third-phase AI stocks are relatively undervalued. Notably, third-phase AI stocks have experienced positive sales revisions, with a median sales forecast increase of 0.3% for 2026, whereas second-phase and fourth-phase stocks have seen downward revisions of 0.3%.
Goldman Sachs' third-phase AI stock list includes 40 companies, of which 27 are software firms. Companies expected to exhibit the fastest sales growth over the next two years include Palantir (PLTR), Cloudflare (NET), SentinelOne (S), and GitLab (GTLB).
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