Coal to drop as steel output slows in BHPB setback - Report
Coal used to make steel is set to drop to the lowest price in two years, eroding earnings at BHP Billiton Limited and Rio Tinto Group, as European demand wanes and China shifts supply contracts to Mongolia from Australia.
According to seven analysts and industry officials in a Bloomberg survey, the contract price may drop 11% to USD 200 a tonne in the three months to December 31st 2012 from USD 225 a tonne this quarter. The spot price in China fell 24% to USD 179.50 as of August 2nd 2012, the lowest in 2011.
A deepening debt crisis in the euro zone has dragged down demand and prices of commodities, forcing the world's largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal to shutter or idle plants in the region. Slowing economic growth in China, the second biggest importer of metallurgical coal, has increased chances of output cuts at mills and further shrinkage in demand for the fuel.
Mr Tim Cahill, an analyst at J&E Davy Holdings Limited in Dublin, said that "Steel demand in Europe is very weak and consumption has slowed dramatically in recent months. It'll get worse in the second half as government spending slows and banks stop lending to home buyers. Unless the US, Europe, China pump in serious stimulus, global steel demand will remain subdued."
The EU produced 14.73 million tonnes of steel in June 2012, the lowest output for that month since 2009.
Possible higher supplies will also put pressure on prices after the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance, the world's biggest exporter of steelmaking coal, resumed operations last month at its Queensland mines, pruning the risk of shortages.
According to a March 22nd 2012 Goldman Sachs Australia Pty report, the venture supplies about 18% of global coking coal.
Mr Jim Truman, a coal market analyst at Hill & Associates in Morgantown, said that "If BHP Mitsubishi mines are successful in bringing on significant output quickly, prices will possibly decline below USD 200 a tonne. All steel companies will benefit and almost all coal miners will lose revenue."
According to the average of 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, full year profit at BHP, slated to report earnings this month, may drop 24% to USD 17.9 billion. Credit Suisse AG analysts, revising down commodity price forecasts, cut their full year profit estimate for BHP by 7%.
According to the average of 11 estimates compiled by Bloomberg, analysts trimmed 2012 profit estimates for Rio on lower commodity prices and slowing growth. Rio is expected to today report first half net income of USD 5.04 billion.
Ms Kelly Quirke, a Melbourne based spokeswoman for BHP Billiton, declined to comment on falling coking coal prices, its impact on the company or plans to cut output, as did Ms Karen Halbert, a spokeswoman for Rio Tinto.
About 44% of Alpha Natural Resources Inc's revenue in 2011 and more than 10% of BHP's sales in the year ended June 30th 2011 came from coking coal. The fuel made up about 10% of Anglo American Plc's revenue in 2011.
Source - Bloomberg