BHPB commodities outlook
Prices for many of BHP Billiton’s products declined during the 2012 financial year as global economic growth slowed and concerns surrounding the economic outlook increased. The impact was compounded by improved supply for some commodities.
In the short term, we expect volatility in commodity markets to persist as temporary weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors across all key markets is expected to weigh on market sentiment. However, in the medium term we expect supportive economic policy and a broad growth bias, particularly in China, to lead to measured improvement in the external environment beginning in the first half of the 2013 financial year.
Growth in fixed asset investment in China over this timeframe is expected to support demand for the steel making raw materials and iron ore prices specifically. In the longer-term, however, the strong financial returns that are being generated by the low-cost iron ore producers will continue to encourage investment in brownfield capacity. The development of this low-cost supply should, in our view, lead to a flattening of the cost curve and the gradual mean reversion of prices, consistent with the backwardated nature of the iron ore forward curve.
The long-term dynamics for copper are particularly positive. Structural operating and capital cost pressure associated with rising strip ratios and declining ore grades suggests that a relatively steep copper cost curve should be maintained. Furthermore, the need to attract substantial new capacity into the market every year, if supply is to keep pace with demand, should provide long-term support for the copper price.
Geopolitical concerns and macroeconomic sentiment continued to influence the energy complex and crude oil pricing in particular. In the United States, the combination of an unusually warm winter and strong supply growth had a detrimental impact on the Henry Hub natural gas price in the second half of the 2012 financial year. This rapid decline in price resulted in a very significant switch from coal to gas fired electricity generation while on the supply side, there was a marked decrease in the level of drilling activity in the dry gas basins. As the market continues to rebalance, we believe that the Henry Hub gas price will adjust to reflect the economics of incremental investment which should, in our view, support higher prices in the longer-term.
In summary, the global macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilise before improving in the first half of the 2013 financial year. This recovery will provide support for commodity demand and pricing in the short to medium term. For specific commodities, the industry will find it difficult to develop new supply quickly enough to satisfy the expected increase in demand. This is particularly the case for industries where barriers to entry are high (eg potash) or where the global resource endowment is in decline (eg copper). We believe that our strategy of being a low cost, upstream, diversified natural resources company will provide more opportunities to create long-term shareholder value as commodity demand patterns evolve with economic development.
Source - BHPB