BHP and Rio Tinto were right on iron ore demand but wrong on supply - Mr Russell
Mr Clyde Russell is a Reuters columnist wrote that what was lacking at BHP Billiton's annual meeting was an admission that what has effectively happened with iron ore is that the company's shareholders are subsidizing the profits of Chinese steel mills. Instead, what Chairman Mr Jac Nasser told the media after the AGM on November 20 was iron ore prices were not inconsistent with the expectations we had built into our long-term investment.
Both Mr Nasser and Mr Andrew Mackenzie CEO of BHP Billiton were keen to emphasize the productivity successes at the iron ore business, saying it remains one of BHP's main profit drivers. That may well be true, but the message from the executives at last week's AGM doesn't quite tally with what BHP was saying in 2011, when it was approving the massive expansion of its iron ore operations in Western Australia.
It was around this time that BHP, its Anglo-Australian rival Rio Tinto, newcomer Fortescue Metals Group and top iron ore miner Brazil's Vale were all making decisions to radically boost output of the steel making ingredient.
This unprecedented capacity expansion was based on the two pronged view that China, which buys about two thirds of seaborne iron ore, would continue its rapid growth for decades to come and that low-cost producers would be able to force higher-cost miners from the market. It has turned out somewhat differently from not only BHP, but also what Rio and others expected back in 2011.
Mr Ian Ashby, the former president of BHP's iron ore business, said in March 2012 that Chinese iron ore import demand would by 977 million tonnes by 2015, which looks to be an extremely accurate forecast, given this year's demand is likely to be around 930 million tonnes.
Mr Tony Ottaviano, BHP's vice president for planning, in a presentation in March 2011 said that China's steel demand would be 700 million tonnes by 2015, which actually may turn out to be too conservative, given output in the first 10 months of this year reached 685.3 million tonnes. However, Mr Ottaviano also said that the growth in iron ore capacity faced challenges in what was then a capital constrained environment, and that he expected that "delivered supply will restore market balance. This is where BHP, and the other miners appear to have been wrong, with the new supply additions generally coming on stream, on time and on budget.
Mr Tom Albanese former chief executive of Rio Tinto and current leader Mr Sam Walsh, who was then head of iron ore, were more forthcoming about where they saw the market, saying in November 2011 that seaborne iron ore supply would have to grow 100 million tonnes per annum for the next eight years.
Given that the growth of global iron ore demand has been concentrated in China, it's worth noting that import demand in that country grew 67.8 million tonnes in 2011, 58.6 million in 2012 and 74.8 million in 2013. This year may well be the first year that Chinese iron ore imports have grown by more than 100 million tonnes, assuming this month's and December's maintain the strength seen in the first 10 months. But with China's economy cooling and residential property construction softening, the likelihood of strong growth in iron ore demand in 2015 is weak.
Source - Reuters