Je hebt echte correlatie die met een bepaalde betrouwbaarheidsmarge is te staven, en je hebt toeval. Deze man scoort 50% en dat is gelijk aan de voorspellingen van de gemiddelde voetbaloctopus, beursaap of bierkanarie. Wat stats van de man:
* Arch Crawford’s recommendations for trading the S&P 500 Index cover 1,146 out of 1,400 calendar days (82%) during the sample period.
* 13 out of 22 trades (59%) are profitable before transaction fees and shorting costs, but three of the positive gross returns are near zero. With trading frictions included, the net win rate is probably around 50%.
* Arch Crawford recommends using 200% leverage 48% of the time during the sample period, including three 200% short trades that generate gross returns of +60.4%, -19.2% and -26.3%. A portfolio based on such recommendations may be quite volatile.
* Arch Crawford’s average gross return per calendar day (with each of the 254 days days he is out of the market assigned 0.00%) is -0.04%. The average daily return for buying and holding the S&P 500 Index over the period of this test is 0.00%. Including return on cash while out of the market would increase Arch Crawford’s average daily return, while including trading frictions (and tax impacts, if any) would reduce it.
Volledig artikel:http://www.cxoadvisory.com/individual-gurus/arch-crawford/