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Koers Galapagos 2012

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Loureiro
0
Bij nader inzien is de verkoop van aandelen door Abingworth gebeurd na de publicatie van de deal met Abbott maar voor de aankondiging van de jaarresultaten en zijn gerealiseerd aan hogere koersen (wellicht boven de 13 euro). Dit kan dus de daling van de laatste dagen niet verklaren.
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Wie zegt dat Abingworth niet al VOOR de big-deal al aan het dumpen was? Ik dacht dat er de dag voor de big-deal ook nog wat is gebeurd... ;-(
trab33
0
er zijn inderdaad blokken verkocht ,wie de koers intens volgt zou gezien hebben dat er tussen 12,8 en 12,9 verschillende pakken tussen de 20k en 50k verhandeld werden
dat ze geen niet meer kopers vinden in deze regionen vind ik onbegrijpelijk en zie op deze manier toch wat koersdruk ontstaan
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7
Misschien dat dit wel een beetje helpt.... deel van een nieuw rapport van BRYAN, GARNIER & CO
INDEPENDENT RESEARCH
UPDATE Galapagos
5th March 2012 With Abbott on board, it is only the beginning!
Healthcare Fair Value EUR20 vs. EUR15.2 (priceEUR12.92) BUY
Bloomberg GLPG BB
Reuters GLPG.BR
12-month High / Low (EUR) 13.1 / 5.2
Market capitalisation (EURm) 341
Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 309
Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 84.60
Free Float 62.0%
3y EPS CAGR 66.7%
Gearing (12/10) -27%
Dividend yield (12/11e) NM
Following the deal announcement with Abbott, as well as 2011 full
year results, we upgrade our fair value to EUR20 from EUR15.2 and
confirm our BUY rating. In our view, the market is still not taking into
account the massive economics of the partnership, nor its
transformative role for the company. Being the largest by value in the
industry for a phase 2 product, this deal is the latest confirmation of
Galapagos innovative discovery platform. In parallel to GLPG0634
phase 2 and thanks to the upfront payment, Galapagos will able to
pursue the development of other clinical candidates, for which we
expect substantial news in the coming months.
? The largest deal by value for a phase 2 product. The economics of
the deal, particularly the USD150m upfront and the USD1.35bn total
deal value, are impressive for a biotech company with a market cap of
less than EUR350m. Indeed, this deal is the largest licensing deal ever
achieved by a biotech company for a single product in phase 2.
? Abbott is the perfect partner to fully exploit GLPG0634’s potential.
With Humira the fifth top selling drug worldwide (USD7.9bn), there is
no doubt that Abbott has the know-how to turn a drug into a multiblockbuster
in the field of auto-immunes diseases. With Pfizer paving the
way for JAK inhibitors, GLPG0634 has the potential to become best-in
class in the oral space, in our view.
? Newsflow expected for several early stage candidates. Many sceptics
could ask “what’s next?”. Contrary to many biotech companies,
Galapagos is not focused on any one single product and has several other
clinical candidates in development, such as GLPG0187 in oncology,
GLPG0492 in cachexia and GLPG0974 in inflammation, for which we
should have results in the coming months. In conclusion, we expect
several milestones payments from the 5 alliances already in place with big
Pharma companies.
YE December 12/10 12/11e 12/12e 12/13e
Revenue (EURm) 136.56 115.29 154.33 173.57
EBIT (EURm) 1.03 -32.93 7.98 14.14
Basic EPS (EUR) 0.16 -1.25 0.50 0.76
Diluted EPS (EUR) 0.16 -1.25 0.50 0.76
EV/Sales 2.2x 2.7x 1.1x 0.8x
EV/EBITDA 23.8x NS 8.6x 5.6x
EV/EBIT 291.8x NS 21.1x 10.1x
P/E 79.1x NS 25.7x 17.1x
ROCE 2.8 -26.2 5.2 7.3

`
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0
Abingworth heeft de aandelen in 2008 gekocht bij koers van rond de 6 euro.
nu verkocht rond 12/13 euro: is toch in 4 jaar tijd meer dan 100% winst!
Niet gek.

Dus alle andere Gala-andeelhouders: houd moed. Over 4 jaar wellicht koers van rond de 25 euro.

Loureiro
0
quote:

pensionado schreef op 6 maart 2012 19:26:

@neverinside: Mooi gevonden! AB daarvoor!
Dit kan de koers opnieuw een boost geven in de volgende weken.
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1. The largest deal by value ever signed
for a phase 2 product
1.1. Impressive financials lead to increased NPV
Since the release of the phase 2 proof of concept data at the end of November 2011, GLPG0634 was
able to attract around 12 Pharma companies to the negotiating table for a partnering deal. We were
bullish on Galapagos’ ability of to sign an attractive deal thanks to the very impressive clinical
package, but also its track record in signing partnering agreements with major Pharma.
Nevertheless, the economics in play with Abbott are massive for a biotech company the size
of Galapagos. Some investors were questioning the interest of Galapagos to license the product
before larger phase 2 data came out. That assumption was arguably true, but given the huge upfront
proposed by Abbott, licensing out the product now was definitely the best risk-reward option. The
table below outlines the financial terms.
Fig. 1: Key financial terms
Upfront payment USD150m
License fee USD200m
Milestones USD1bn
Total deal value USD1.35bn
Royalties Tiered double digits
Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.
As shown in the figure below, this ranks the deal as the most profitable ever for a phase 2
product in terms of total value of USD1.35bn. That is impressive, as the compound had only been
tested in 36 patients in a phase 2 PoC. During the conference call, management mentioned that
similar upfront payments were offered by other companies, but for the reasons mentioned below
Abbott was picked by Galapagos.
Fig. 2: Top 5 deals by value for a phase 2 asset
Deal date Company Deal Partner Product Pharma class Current phase Upfront (USDm) Deal Value (USDm)
2012 Abbott Galapagos GLPG0634 JAK-1 inhibitor II 150 1.35
2010 Astra Zeneca Rigel Pharma R788 Syk inhibitor III 100 1.24
2007 Merck & Co ARIAD Ridaforolimus mTOR inhibitor Filed 75 1.24
2009 Astra Zeneca Targacept TC-5214 Alpha4 & beta 2 nicotinic agonist III 200 1.24
2009 BMS Alder BMS-945429 Anti-IL-6 mab II 85 1.05
Source: Evaluate Pharma
AstraZeneca’s 2010 deal with Rigel for R788, a Spleen Tyrosine Kinase (Syk) inhibitor for rheumatoid
arthritis, was an interesting comparison to appreciate the economics in play for Galapagos. But clearly
in terms of upfront payments and an option fee, the agreement with Abbott surpasses that between
AZ and Rigel. All in all, this leads us to increase our NPV for the product by integrating both
the upfront and option fee and raising our probability of success to 30% from 20%, which we
still believe to be conservative. Therefore, GLPG0634 now represents EUR12.4 per share in
our valuation versus EUR6.7 previously.

1.2. Co-development deal structure
Galapagos has always expressed its interest in a co-development programme, whereby it would be
responsible for IIa and IIb trials, with the partner managing Phase III, the regulatory approval process
and product marketing. That is exactly what it did with the Abbott deal, outlined in the chart below.
Fig. 4: Development plan
Source : Company Data
We deem it crucial for the long-term future of Galapagos that the company is conducting an
extensive global, multicentre phase 2 programme. Working aside Abbott in the joint steering
committee overseeing the development, will help Galapagos to gain experience in late stage clinical
trials. The phase 2 will enroll hundreds of patients. A phase 2a dose ranging will start in at the
beginning of next month to determine the best dose for Rheumatoid Arthritis. The design will
basically be the same as the one put in place in the phase 2 PoC, but Galapagos will test lower and
higher doses than 200mg per day. We estimate the cost of this phase 2a at around EUR10m.
Phase 2b will be more crucial, with three or four hundreds patients enrolled and the aim to confirm
the efficacy and safety profile seen in the Phase 2 PoC. Two arms will be tested with GLPG0634 +
MTX as well as GLPG0634 in montherapy. The cost will reach some EUR50-60m. At the end of
this phase 2b and should the clinical trial be successful, Abbott will exercise its option while
paying USD200m to Galapagos. Worth mentioning, is the fact that the two parties have
already agreed on criteria to trigger the out-licensing of the compound. With the completion of
the phase 2b, Galapagos will hand over GLPG0634 to Abbott for Phase 3 and its commercialisation,
thus triggering further milestones and royalties.
Finally, JAK inhibitors have shown attractive efficacy signs in other auto-immunes diseases such as
psoriasis, Crohn’s disease and Lupus. When the most compelling dose will be determined for RA,
Galapagos could start phase 2b in these indications too, if the compound has not been handed over
to Abbott. If this is the case, the Big Pharma company will conduct the trials. Galapagos confirmed
that some milestones are linked to the other indications.
2. Why Abbott is the perfect partner to
fully exploit GLPG0634 potential
2.1. Abbott a leader in auto-immune diseases
To compete in a crowded and mass-market like RA, Galapagos needed to secure a partner with a
strong presence and the ability to render the commercialisation of GLPG0634 a success.
Fig. 5: Global sales for Rheumatoid Arthritis products (EURm)
Ranking Product Company Pharmalogical Class 2010 2013e 2016e Status
1 Humira Abbott/Eisai Anti-TNFa Mab 5.02 6.17 6.41 Marketed
2 Enbrel Amgen/Pfizer/Takeda TNFa inhibitor 4.43 4.98 5.00 Marketed
3 Remicade J&J Anti-TNFa Mab 3.52 3.65 3.51 Marketed
4 Simponi J&J Anti-TNFa Mab 0.3 1.46 2.21 Marketed
5 Actemra Roche/Chugai Anti-IL-6 Mab 0.38 1.34 2.17 Marketed
6 Orencia BMS B7 integrin antagonist 0.75 1.27 1.65 Marketed
7 Rituxan Roche Anti-CD20 Mab 1.23 1.57 1.37 Marketed
8 Tofacitinib Pfizer JAK3 0.25 1.02 Filed
9 Cimzia UCB Anti-TNFa Mab 0.16 0.58 0.89 Marketed
10 R788 AstraZeneca Syk kinase inhibitor 0.79 Phase 3
Source: Evaluate Pharma
2.2. The potential to compete with Pfizer’s Tofa
Whilst being a market leader in RA, Abbott also already successfully experienced the
situation that it will face with GLPG0634. Indeed, Humira was launched 5 years after Remicade,
the anti-TNF alpha from J&J, which was already a blockbuster. As shown in the chart below, in 2007,
Abbott sales overpassed those of J&J, making Humira the most successful product in the space.

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1
Deel II (+ 1/2)

3. Newsflow expected for several early
stage candidates
Whereas many biotech companies develop only one single product, Galapagos has been able to build
a full range of innovative targets (GPR43, Cystic Fibrosis, Alzheimer...), or approaches (JAK1, antiintegrin
oral compound). We intend to conduct an extensive review of Galapagos’ R&D pipeline in
April, after the R&D day, but would like to outline three of them that are going to deliver phase 1
results in the coming weeks. NB. We are not taking these products into our valuation pending
results, but believe they will provide support for the share price, demonstrating that the story
is just at the beginning.
3.1. GLPG0187, the next success?
GLPG0187, an integrin receptor antagonist, is the company’s second most advanced
development-stage product and is currently in Phase 1b for solid tumours. Integrin is a
transmembrane protein that is over-expressed in solid tumours. Preclinical models have demonstrated
that integrin inhibition by GLPG0187 reduces tumour diffusion and growth.

The Phase Ib endpoint is to determine the maximum tolerated dose for GLPG0187 and to confirm
integrin as a biomarker. Patients with integrin over-expression are the most likely to benefit from
GLPG0187. At the same time, Galapagos is performing preclinical research to develop a GLPG0187
pro-drug, both oral and subcutaneous, with 20x the bioavailability compared to the current
intravenous formulation. We consider the project to be highly promising, but do not apply a
value given its early stage of development. Interestingly, Merck KGaA is developing Cilengitide,
in several Oncology indications. However, this compound is not given orally and binds to a smaller
panel of integrin receptors, which could lead to a lower efficacy than GLPG0187.
A novel target in inflammatory: GPR43
GLPG0974 is the first GPR43 inhibitor evaluated clinically. This compound, whose rights were
returned by GSK in December 2011, is part of Galapagos’ immuno-inflammation development. Its
potent inhibiting GPR43 action should reduce neutrophils’ migration. Phase 1 is evaluating
pharmacokinetics after single dose (amount of GLPG0974 in blood) and pharmacodynamics (safety
and tolerability). GLPG0974 could provide a novel treatment approach, targeting this antiinflammatory
mechanism involved in diseases such as inflammatory bowel.
3.3. GLPG0492, a candidate for a licensing deal
GLPG0492 is currently in Phase I “Proof-of-mechanism” study as part of Galapagos’
Selective Androgen Receptor Modulator (SARM) programme. This molecule is targeting
potential treatment for musculo-skeletal diseases such as Cachexia leading to weight loss and
muscle mass occurring in cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or AIDS. Two
million people die annually from the consequences of cancer related to cachexia. The market, which is
expected to increase in the next few years, should reach one billion dollars on our estimates. The drug
is also being tested in a pre-clinical model of Duchenne muscular dystrophy and has shown
improvement of muscle strength and running performance. During pre-clinical development,
GLPG0492 showed an improvement in muscle mass in animal models with minimal side-effects and
could be an alternative to traditional androgen therapies like testosterone.
Phase I was completed in December 2010 with a good safety and pharmacokinetic profile once-daily
dosing. According to clinical trials.gov, Phase Ib “Proof of Mechanism” was completed in December
2011. Results should be published in Q1 2012 and we expect them to assess safety and tolerability
with multiple ascending dose which could lead to an out-licence deal by the end of 2012, if the results
are convincing enough. Another option would be for Galapagos to conduct a phase 2 PoC to have
more data.
Alliances will continue to deliver over
2012
With 2012 revenues guidance at least EUR150m, milestones payments from Pharma alliances will
continue to flow in. As an example, the latest one of EUR3.5m was paid by Servier in the framework
of its osteoarthritis alliance. We reiterate the potential of this alliance business as shown by the
decision from GSK to in-license two Galapagos compounds that completed phase 1 PoM,
namely GLPG0778 and its back-up GLPG0555. This was the first time a big Pharma decided
to exercise its option and continue the development in-house.
Fig. 11: Over EUR2.5bn in potential milestones with 5 big Pharmas
Indication Partner Deal Value Year Valuation/share
Immuno-inflammation GSK EUR200m + royalties 2006 0.7
Rheumatoid Arthritis Janssen EUR1bn + royalties 2007 0.5
Anti-Infectives GSK EUR219m + royalties 2007 0.2
Osteoporosis Lilly EUR275m + royalties 2007 0.4
Fibrosis Roche EUR550m + royalties 2010 0.5
Osteoarthritis Servier EUR300m + US rights + royalties 2010 0.3
Oncology Servier EUR260m + US rights + royalties 2011 0.1
Total >EUR2.5bn EUR2.7
Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.
Loureiro
0

Ik onthou hieruit :
We intend to conduct an extensive review of Galapagos’ R&D pipeline in
April, after the R&D day, but would like to outline three of them that are going to deliver phase 1 results in the coming weeks.
Bryan, Garnier & Co = onafhankelijke europese investeringsbank.
Eindelijk begint er meer interesse te komen in GLPG en onmiddellijk een koersdoel van 20 euro!!!
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Hoe meer brokers en gelieerde partijen Galapagos volgen, hoe leuker het wordt, vooral als ze ver naar voren gaan extrapoleren! Maar pas op, als ze verder naar voren gaan kijken dan het management kan......
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0
quote:

pensionado schreef:

@neverinside: Mooi gevonden! AB daarvoor!
Helemaal eens, hoewel ik dagelijks het internet afspeur, had ik deze niet gezien.
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0
Ach ja...iedereen kan het lezen, maar over 0187, 0974 en 0492:

"We are not taking these products into our valuation pending
results, but believe they will provide support for the share price, demonstrating that the story is just at the beginning.
Opstapelen
0
"Therefore, GLPG0634 now represents EUR12.4 per share in
our valuation versus EUR6.7 previously."

tja, de rest van GLPG is gratis volgens de koers. Ik ruik hier echt het crucell scenario,

K. Wiebes
0
quote:

pensionado schreef op 6 maart 2012 18:00:

... Desnoods al het andere er morgen ook maar uit, inclusief Galapagos. Ik zal dat dan ook hier laten weten.
Vergeet deze niet, standvastige:

"Ik ga er vanuit dat de koersdaling toch tijdelijk is. Daarom op 12,61 nog maar weer wat bijgekocht en op de plank bijgelegd".

=========//==========

Hoeveel er daadwerkelijk door Abingworth is afgestoten weten we niet: in 2008 hadden ze ca. 1,6M; nu ca. 1,3M.
Het kan best zijn dat ze in de tussenliggende jaren nog wat meer hebben opgebouwd.
In ieder geval worden die 1,3M stukken die ze nog hebben
nu zo'n 1,3M euro minder waard. 'Tis wat.

Je zou bijna zeggen dat je de zin om als fondsmanager winst te nemen, je ontnomen wordt. De vraag die uiteraard
blijft hangen is, wat ze met het resterende belang gaan doen: houden, in de markt gooien of er gefaseerd een koper voor zoeken ?

Maar ja, 'n mens moet toch wat. Laat die jongens ook 'ns een keer cashen en laat je niet gek maken. Bovendien denk ik niet dat zij de enige "schuldige" zijn aan de koersval;
er wordt gewoon over een breed front winstgenomen.

De koers stond voor deze deal op 11,60 en de deal zelf rechtvaardigt zeer zeker een hogere koers. Dit bericht valt helaas op een slechte dag, maar doet niets af aan de vooruitzichten voor Gala. Bovendien - gezien de omzetten -
wordt er ook flink gekocht.

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0
Ook hier meer bdelangstelling voor Galapagos:

www.biocentury.com/Home

How Galapagos structured its JAK-1 deal with Abbott for rheumatoid arthritis
By Erin McCallister
Senior Writer

Galapagos N.V. desired to control Phase II studies of its GLPG0634 oral Janus kinase-1 inhibitor in rheumatoid arthritis, but also wanted an experienced Phase III partner.

The result was last week's hybrid option-like licensing deal with Abbott Laboratories. The biotech gets to take the JAK-1 compound through the Phase II study in RA without delay, while the pharma expects to get a molecule with a relatively benign safety profile and competitive efficacy in what is fast becoming a crowded space.
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

neverinside schreef op 6 maart 2012 19:47:

Deel II (+ 1/2)

3. Newsflow expected for several early
stage candidates
Whereas many biotech companies develop only one single product, Galapagos has been able to build
a full range of innovative targets (GPR43, Cystic Fibrosis, Alzheimer...), or approaches (JAK1, antiintegrin
oral compound). We intend to conduct an extensive review of Galapagos’ R&D pipeline in
April, after the R&D day, but would like to outline three of them that are going to deliver phase 1
results in the coming weeks. NB. We are not taking these products into our valuation pending
results, but believe they will provide support for the share price, demonstrating that the story
is just at the beginning.
3.1. GLPG0187, the next success?
GLPG0187, an integrin receptor antagonist, is the company’s second most advanced
development-stage product and is currently in Phase 1b for solid tumours. Integrin is a
transmembrane protein that is over-expressed in solid tumours. Preclinical models have demonstrated
that integrin inhibition by GLPG0187 reduces tumour diffusion and growth.

The Phase Ib endpoint is to determine the maximum tolerated dose for GLPG0187 and to confirm
integrin as a biomarker. Patients with integrin over-expression are the most likely to benefit from
GLPG0187. At the same time, Galapagos is performing preclinical research to develop a GLPG0187
pro-drug, both oral and subcutaneous, with 20x the bioavailability compared to the current
intravenous formulation. We consider the project to be highly promising, but do not apply a
value given its early stage of development. Interestingly, Merck KGaA is developing Cilengitide,
in several Oncology indications. However, this compound is not given orally and binds to a smaller
panel of integrin receptors, which could lead to a lower efficacy than GLPG0187.
A novel target in inflammatory: GPR43
GLPG0974 is the first GPR43 inhibitor evaluated clinically. This compound, whose rights were
returned by GSK in December 2011, is part of Galapagos’ immuno-inflammation development. Its
potent inhibiting GPR43 action should reduce neutrophils’ migration. Phase 1 is evaluating
pharmacokinetics after single dose (amount of GLPG0974 in blood) and pharmacodynamics (safety
and tolerability). GLPG0974 could provide a novel treatment approach, targeting this antiinflammatory
mechanism involved in diseases such as inflammatory bowel.
3.3. GLPG0492, a candidate for a licensing deal
GLPG0492 is currently in Phase I “Proof-of-mechanism” study as part of Galapagos’
Selective Androgen Receptor Modulator (SARM) programme. This molecule is targeting
potential treatment for musculo-skeletal diseases such as Cachexia leading to weight loss and
muscle mass occurring in cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or AIDS. Two
million people die annually from the consequences of cancer related to cachexia. The market, which is
expected to increase in the next few years, should reach one billion dollars on our estimates. The drug
is also being tested in a pre-clinical model of Duchenne muscular dystrophy and has shown
improvement of muscle strength and running performance. During pre-clinical development,
GLPG0492 showed an improvement in muscle mass in animal models with minimal side-effects and
could be an alternative to traditional androgen therapies like testosterone.
Phase I was completed in December 2010 with a good safety and pharmacokinetic profile once-daily
dosing. According to clinical trials.gov, Phase Ib “Proof of Mechanism” was completed in December
2011. Results should be published in Q1 2012 and we expect them to assess safety and tolerability
with multiple ascending dose which could lead to an out-licence deal by the end of 2012, if the results
are convincing enough. Another option would be for Galapagos to conduct a phase 2 PoC to have
more data.
Alliances will continue to deliver over
2012
With 2012 revenues guidance at least EUR150m, milestones payments from Pharma alliances will
continue to flow in. As an example, the latest one of EUR3.5m was paid by Servier in the framework
of its osteoarthritis alliance. We reiterate the potential of this alliance business as shown by the
decision from GSK to in-license two Galapagos compounds that completed phase 1 PoM,
namely GLPG0778 and its back-up GLPG0555. This was the first time a big Pharma decided
to exercise its option and continue the development in-house.
Fig. 11: Over EUR2.5bn in potential milestones with 5 big Pharmas
Indication Partner Deal Value Year Valuation/share
Immuno-inflammation GSK EUR200m + royalties 2006 0.7
Rheumatoid Arthritis Janssen EUR1bn + royalties 2007 0.5
Anti-Infectives GSK EUR219m + royalties 2007 0.2
Osteoporosis Lilly EUR275m + royalties 2007 0.4
Fibrosis Roche EUR550m + royalties 2010 0.5
Osteoarthritis Servier EUR300m + US rights + royalties 2010 0.3
Oncology Servier EUR260m + US rights + royalties 2011 0.1
Total >EUR2.5bn EUR2.7
Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests.
Heerlijk om te lezen. 20 euro, zonder 492, 187 en974.......laat het grote publiek galapagos maar ontdekken.
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0
Ook al wordt er meer geschreven over Galapagos, blijft het aandeel ook meegaan met een negatief gestemde beurs (al was dat minder dan Morphosys vandaag deed).
Dat Abingworth wat Galapagos aandelen verkocht heeft is begrijpelijk gezien het forse aantal aandelen dat zij hadden.
Wellicht gaan zij nog verder met hun verkopen. Zij moesten natuurlijk melden dat zij onder de 5% uitgekomen waren maar nu hoeven zij niets meer te melden.
Dus ook vandaag kan Abingworth winst genomen hebben.
Op zich is Galapagos nu een ander bedrijf geworden en past het wellicht niet meer in het profiel van hun beleggingen.
Het zou leuk zijn als wij hun beweegredenen zouden kennen.
Nu Galapagos verlies gerapporteerd heeft over 2011 mogen sommige fondsen niet of minder in Galapagos beleggen. Dat betekent dat een groep institutionele beleggers nu nog aan de zijlijn staan en dat particulieren en hun grillen meer invloed hebben op de koers.

In ieder geval is de gedeeltelijke of gehele verkoop door Abingworth voor mij geen reden om te verkopen. Net als de directie wil ik voorlopig niets verkopen.
Mijn belang is gestaag opgelopen na de bekendmaking van de testresultaten van 634 en tot de bekendmaking van de deal. Ook de deal met Servier vond ik positief.

Als de koers zakt tot de koers van voor de bekendmaking zal ik weer gaan bijkopen. Wellicht dus morgen al.
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