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Iron ore price fall a surprise for Rio Tinto

SMH cited Mr Chris Lynch finance chief of Rio Tinto as saying that the sharp fall in the iron ore price in 2014 has caught the mining giant by surprise but rejects claims the company is flooding the market with excess supply.

Mr Lynch, tipped as a possible successor to Rio boss Mr Sam Walsh, said that the price was lower than both Rio and the wider iron ore industry expected.

He said that "Is it lower than where I thought it would be right now? Well I don't try and predict where it is near term but it is probably lower than where I think anyone saw it would be immediately. But you could also say the same is true for oil and coal probably."

Mr Lynch said that “The miner was focused on stripping out costs which were inflated during the boom years as Rio works toward hitting an expansion target of 360 million tonnes later this decade. As much as we'd like it to be different, it's still a cyclical industry. During the really hot market years, costs were being bid up fairly heavily.”

He said that “Now those costs are hard to get out but once you have the opportunity to do that you need to take advantage of that opportunity and I think we are in that mode now. There is a lot more competitive pitching in bids and costs are coming down.”

Mr Lynch dismissed the charges and said that Rio was operating a strong business in a volatile market. He said “We can always choose to run our assets as we choose to run them but the concept of deliberately trying to manipulate the market isn't something we would ever contemplate. There are always going to be slight mis-matches whenever you've got a long term view of what demand looks like and supply will come at various rates. At times it will come a little more than immediate demand, at others it will come too slow. But eventually it will work its way out in the market."

Source - SMH
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China steel imports and exports in November 2014 - Customs

According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 1.13 million tonnes of steel products in November 2014, down 120,000 tonnes, or 9.6% YoY. The figure was 40,000 tonnes more than the previous month.

Steel exports increased for the third consecutive month to 9.72 million tonnes last month, up 4.71 million tonnes or 94% YoY. It was up 1.17 million tonnes compared to the preceding month.

Net exports in November were 8.59 million tonnes, up 4.83 million tonnes or 128.5% from a year ago and up 1.13 million tonnes from a month earlier.

China’s iron ore imports in November hit 67.4 million tonnes, down 10.44 million tonnes or 13.4% from the same month last year and down 11.99 million tonnes from October. Average import price in the month was USD 79.67 per tonne, down USD 3.06 per tonne from the previous month.

Coke exports reached 940,000 tonnes in November, 120,000 tonnes more than the previous month. Average export price of coke hit USD 180.24 per tonne, increasing by USD 3.65 per tonne from a month ago.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
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South Korean steelmakers look to mergers and reorganization to cope with excess supply

Yonhap reported that South Korean steelmakers are engaged in sweeping reorganizations, mergers and spinoffs to cope with excess supply and competition from China.

Industry watchers said that leading the pack, POSCO, the country's largest steelmaker, sold off its stakes in POSCO Specialty Steel to SeAH Besteel Corporation. The move has transformed SeAH Group, the parent conglomerate of Besteel, into the largest producer of special steel products in the world.

Source - Yonhap
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Updates on weekly raw steel production in USA

In the week ending December 6th 2014, domestic raw steel production was 1,877,000 net tonnes while the capability utilization rate was 78.0%. Production was 1,788,000 net tonnes in the week ending December 6th 2013, while the capability utilization then was 74.6%.

The current week production represents a 5.0% increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending December 6th 2014 is up 2.3% from the previous week ending November 29th 2014 when production was 1,835,000 net tonnes and the rate of capability utilization was 76.3%.

Adjusted year to date production through December 6th 2014 was 90,000,000 net tonnes, at a capability utilization rate of 77.1%. That is up 0.6% from the 89,446,000 net tonnes during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 76.8%.

Broken down by districts, here's production for the week ending December 6th 2014 in thousands of net tons: North East: 240; Great Lakes: 673; Midwest: 234; Southern: 640 and Western: 90 for a total of 1,877.

The Raw Steel production tonnage provided in this report is estimated. The figures are compiled from weekly production tonnage provided from 50% of the domestic producers combined with monthly production data for the remainder. Therefore, this report should be used primarily to assess production trends.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Chinese steel flood of cheap exports could spark trade conflict

A flood of cheap Chinese steel into the global market has other Asian nations considering protective measures and could trigger trade friction in the region.

China's steel exports reached 73.89 million tonnes in the first 10 months of 2014, a 42% increase on the year and close to the crude steel production in Japan, world's second largest steel producer.

Alloy loophole;
Pressed with the need to unload excess inventory, Chinese steel producers began adding 0.0008% of boron to ordinary steel without informing customers in other countries. By adding boron, they can sell the steel as alloy and receive a refund on any value added tax for products destined for overseas markets. Under a 2010 initiative aimed at making sure a majority of exports are value-added products like alloys, Beijing does not refund value added tax on exports of ordinary steel.

This has led to confusion in trade figures. An official responsible for statistics at the Japan Iron and Steel Federation said there is a gap in the figures for steel exported to the Japanese market from China.

According to Chinese data, alloy products made up 99% of the steel destined for the Japanese market in 2013, a significant increase over the past two years. Japanese statistics, on the other hand, said the percentage of alloy products remained almost the same, representing only 5% of steel imports.

Beijing became aware of the practice and started scrutinizing exports last year. It found that steel containing boron represented 80% to 90% of major steel exports.

An official at Japanese steel trading house Metal One said that the tax refund, which represents 9% to 13% of the price, is likely helping steel producers to lower their prices.

Fighting back;
The influx of cheap steel from China has started squeezing steelmakers in other Asian nations, triggering some governments to curb imports.

In July, the regulatory authority in Seoul launched a probe into possible dumping of Chinese steel with the aim of imposing an anti-dumping duty on Chinese steel. Chinese steel in South Korea is crowding out domestic products, forcing the steel producers there to sell their products in other Asian markets.

Malaysia started investigating alleged dumping of Chinese and South Korean steel in August. Nineteen probes were conducted in the 10 months through October, 11 of which focused on Chinese steel.

Nations are also mulling safeguard measures that are easier to implement than anti dumping duties. Eight studies for such measures were launched from January to October, the highest number since data become available in 1999. Seven were launched in all of 2013.

Steelmaker solidarity?
Japanese imports of Chinese steel grew roughly 140% on the year, to 1.17 million tonnes, in the 10 months through October. A sales representative at Godo Steel said almost all wire rod in Japan is now Chinese-made and containing boron. Wire rod is processed into screws and nails.

Mr Shinya Higuchi, executive vice president of Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal, said that he finds it odd that an enormous volume of steel has been coming into Japan despite a weaker yen.

Source - Asia.nikkei
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Negativity prevails for 3 day in Chinese domestic long steel products market

The downtrend and rot in Chinese domestic long steel product market is deepening and spreading across the nations as further correction happened on Thursday for the third consecutive day as Chinese leaders on Thursday affirmed their commitment to a "new normal" of slower economic growth next year

The slide in prices is likely to deepen further as the prospects of improvement in steel demand have further diminished with revelation of Chinese government’s stance on economic growth in 2015 as the leadership is comfortable with slower growth so long as the economy generates enough new jobs to avert a spike in unemployment and possible unrest.

Chinese leaders on Thursday affirmed their commitment to a new normal of slower economic growth next year. Following the annual planning meeting led by President Xi Jinping gave no growth target for 2015 but private sector economists expect it to be lowered to 7% from the 7.5% level.

The Chinese government pledged to take initiative to adapt to the new normal and promote innovation and structural adjustment. The leaders promised to expand access to basic public services and education for children and poor families.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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BHP Billiton sees Chinese steel consumption slowing in 2015

Iron ore giant BHP Billiton expects Chinese steel consumption growth to slow next year and has already adjusted its strategy to cope with a supply glut that has caused global prices to collapse

CEO Mr Andrew Mackenzie told reporters "We anticipated the change towards current market conditions and the rebalancing of supply and demand after a period of massive expansion and a time when supply struggled with demand, we saw these changes coming a long way off.”

Mr Mackenzie added that BHP had stopped approving new investment in major iron ore production growth as early as 2011.

BHP Billiton said while Chinese production growth was likely to remain at about 3-3.5 percent until 2020, a slowdown in consumption was now anticipated. An official said "Consumption growth is about 1.5 percent this year and slowing to between 0.5-1.5 percent next year -- we see modest to marginal steel consumption growth.”

It is a sign that one of the iron ore majors is scaling back expectations after years of bullishness about Chinese demand. BHP Billiton and other big miners had embarked on a rapid production capacity expansion program, banking on sustained demand growth in top buyer China. But though imports into China have surged, prices have fallen by nearly half with Chinese steel output growth slowing to around 3 percent.

Source - Reuters
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Siemens management system cuts energy costs of electrostatic precipitators in steel mills

With Precon, Siemens Metals Technologies is offering steel works operators an energy management system for electrostatic precipitators in dedusting plants. The system includes components for data recording and processing, operator control and monitoring devices, and special software for controlling the precipitators.

This enables the operation of the electrostatic precipitators to be matched optimally to the actual operating state of the converter. Depending on the environment and the type of electrostatic precipitator used, the energy consumption can be reduced by between 30% and 50%.

The first Precon systems are in operation in a European steel plant. With the same dedusting performance, the precipitators there are saving more than 60 percent of their electrical energy consumption. The system typically pays back within one year, and can be retrofitted in existing plants without any additional shutdowns.

Source – Strategic Research Institute
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Glencore's Mr Ivan Glasenberg questions iron ore majors big bet

Mr Ivan Glasenberg CEO of Glencore has stepped up his attack on the big iron ore producers including potential merger partner Rio Tinto, describing the industry’s decision ramp up production as a big bet that could kill smaller miners.

Mr Glasenberg wasted little time during the Swiss resources giant’s investor day in London criticising major iron ore producer such as Rio, BHP Billiton and Brazil’s Vale for ramping up production at a time when weaker Chinese demand had seen the price halve this year.

He said that “Capital misallocation, not a lack of demand, remains a key issue for the sector resulting in a clear need to differentiate by commodity. We will continue our disciplined approach to capital allocation, based on the supply demand fundamentals.”

He added that “We don’t want to oversupply and cannibalise our own business. If we do generate cash and we don’t find better ways to deploy it, we are owner managers and we are happy to pay back some money to ourselves.”

Mr Glasenberg said that “Whether they believe they BHP and Rio Tinto believe they are going to kill the highest cost producer, I’ve heard some of the statements, I don’t know. They may be right. They may kill the highest cost producer and then the market will turn around. The big question is how many high cost producers will they knock out of business? I don’t know they answer to that.”

Source - Reuters
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Fortescue open to selling assets as iron ore slides

Reuters reported that Australia’s Fortescue Metals Group is willing to sell down stakes in some of its assets amid a collapse in iron ore prices but the world’s fourth-biggest iron ore miner says it is under no pressure to take quick action.

Despite cutting debt and reducing spending, Fortescue’s equity value is now below its AUD 8.8 billion in debt after its share price halved this year, which investors say may be dangerous if iron ore prices slide further.

Two years ago Fortescue was forced to cut spending on everything from new mines to tomato ketchup to survive a sharp price dip. It axed jobs, sold assets and restructured debt, but rejected bids for a stake in its coveted port and rail unit.

Mr Stephen Pearce CFO of Fortescue said while the company and investors say it is not under immediate pressure, facing no bond repayments until 2017 that the company would be open to selling stakes in its mines. It has not launched any auction yet.

A spokeswoman said that “Fortescue is not engaged in any processes with banks around the sale of assets.”

Fortescue is now producing two and a half times as much iron ore as it was in 2012 and has slashed its all-in production costs to the equivalent of AUD 60 a tonne, compared with an iron ore price of AUD 69.70. That puts it in much better shape than smaller producers in West Australia’s Pilbara belt, some of whome are barely breaking even or who have closed mines.

It has also passed the peak of its capital spending, which reached just over AUD 6 billion in the 2013 financial year, and last month announced it was halving capital spending for 2015 to just AUD 650 million. But investors says asset sales should be on the cards.

Source – Reuters
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Steelmakers in USD 155 million expansion project

A unit of Redcliff based steel manufacturer, Steelmakers is seeking a USD 155 million loan to increase its sponge iron output to 300,000 tonnes from the current 30,000.

Mr Alexander Johnson GM of Steelmakers said that “The fresh capital would increase output at its Masvingo iron plant subsidiary Simbi Steelmakers. The expansion project is set to commence early next year and will be financed through long term borrowings and equity partnerships.”

Mr Johnson said that “The project is expected to cost about USD 155 million and is aimed at completing the unfinished three phases of Masvingo’s initial plan. If implemented Simbi will now produce ten times more than the current output.”

Source – Insider Zim
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Commission proposes almost fund for former workers of ArcelorMittal Liege

The European Commission has proposed to provide Belgium with almost EUR 3.8 million from the European Globalization Adjustment Fund to help more than 2200 workers from ArcelorMittal Liege, Caterpillar Belgium and the steel sector in the region of Hainaut to find new jobs.

The proposal now goes to the European Parliament and the EU's Council of Ministers for approval.

Belgium applied for support from the EGF following the dismissal of 1,285 workers in ArcelorMittal Liege SA, of 1,030 workers in Caterpillar Belgium SA and following the redundancies at two manufacturers of basic metals (Duferco Belgium SA and NLMK La Louviere SA) in the region of Hainaut.

The measures co financed by the EGF would help 910 workers from ArcelorMittal, 630 workers from Caterpillar and 701 workers from the steel industry in Hainaut facing the greatest difficulties in finding new jobs by providing them with

Source – EC Europa
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SAIL plans to set up iron ore pellet plant in Jharkhand

Indian Express reported that Steel Authority of India Limited has sought the union environment ministry’s clearance for setting up a 2 million tonne per annum greenfield iron ore pellet plant at Jharkhand at an investment of INR 2,388 crore.

A senior steel ministry official said that the company has proposed to set up the iron ore pellet plant and a 0.768 million tonne top charged coke oven battery facility within the premises of its existing integrated project at Bokaro in the state.

The official said that SAIL’s representatives have told a meeting of the environment ministry’s expert appraisal committee (EAC) on November 14 that both the pellet plant and the coke oven battery do require any additional land or forest land.

Official said that the iron ore required for these additional facilities will be sourced from SAIL’s mines at Bolani in Orissa and Kiriburu and Meghataburu deposits in Jharkhand. Limestone will be sourced from quarries of Kuteshwar in Madhya Pradesh and Bhawanathpur in Jharkhand and dolomite from Tulsidamar quarries also in Jharkhandm. The company has planned to ramp up output at its Gua deposits to 10 million tonne per annum from 2.4 million tonne per annum currently, Meghataburu to 6.5 million tonne from 4.3 million tonne as of now, Bolani mines to 10 million tonne from 4.1 currently.

The official added that the requirement for coal would be met mostly imported and a small percentage of indigenous coal would be sourced from Dugda, Monnidih, Rajrappa, Kathara, Mohuda and other domestic coal mines.

Official further added that of the total project cost of INR 2,388 crore, INR 167.18 crore has been budgeted towards environmental measures.

Source - Indian Express
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Price war in offing for HR exports between Chinese and CIS steel mills

Hell seems to be breaking loose in global HR trade with CIS base steel mills upping the ante with aggressive pricing for Asian clients in last 2 weeks overthrowing the Chinese steelmakers.

It is learnt that some Russian mills, supported by weak Ruble, have cut their prices drastically and are collecting orders from Indian users & traders. It is heard that their sales team was in Mumbai to close some deals

Although the specific of these deals is hazy, following picture has emerged. Russian mills are reported to be offering USD 475 per tonne CFR India for CR grade for December production and January shipments. However their offers for January production and February shipments are reported to be much lower at about USD 450 CFR India levels. As per reports, few large deals have been inked by Indian buyers for Russian and Ukrainian origin HR import at about USD 475 CFR and 460 CFR levels respectively.

There are several factors influencing CIS based mills to take such aggressive stance. The top most being the room provided by weakened Ruble (Down by almost 40%) for lowering their offers. price cut. The Russian Roble is in free fall due to various reasons including …………….

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Roubini Global sees Sub USD 60 level for iron ore amid massive surplus

Bloomberg reported that according to Roubini Global Economics LLC, iron ore may drop to less than USD 60 per tonne next year as the largest mining companies press on with raising supply, deepening a glut just as demand growth in China falters.

Ms Helen Henton Director of Commodities said that “The commodity will average USD 65 per tonne in 2015, with weaker prices in the first half before a recovery as some higher cost capacity is closed. While producers won’t fare well in an environment of falling prices, it does make sense for low cost suppliers to keep expanding in the expectation that less competitive mines will be shuttered.”

Ms Henton said that “The three major companies have announced expanding output and plans to drive down costs rather than cutting output in the hope that some of the higher-cost projects will start shuttering capacity. In the meantime, you can get a period of massive surplus. It’s not an irrational decision to do that.”

She said that “We’re bearish with the commodities complex as a whole, really. It’s the supply side that makes a difference. Iron ore is one of the commodities where the surplus is most evident.”

Source - Bloomberg
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Daily crude steel production of China's key steel mills hit near 40 day high - CISA

According to data released by the China Iron and Steel Association, daily crude steel production of China's key steel mills rose to a 40 day high of 1.7133 million tonnes in late November.

The figure was up 4.34% or 71,300 tonnes from mid November. Inventory of CISA’s member mills declined to 14.314 million tonnes as of November 30, down 1.01% or 145,300 tonnes from the preceding ten days.

Steel mills, mainly located in northern China, were ordered to suspend production with an aim to ensure clear air for the APEC conference during November 5 to 11, which led to a decline from 1.8 million tonnes to 1.6 million tonnes in the daily crude steel output.

However, the mills gradually resumed normal operations since as early as mid November following the nearly one-week government-mandated stopped of production. The sustained falls in iron ore prices were also a major contributing factor to the sharp pick up in mills’ daily crude steel production.

The BF operating rate of steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei Province, recovered to over 90% in late November with capacity utilization ratio rising to above 95% significantly higher than early to mid November.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
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BHPB ships 1 billion tonnes of iron ore to China

BHP Billiton celebrated the shipment of its one billionth tonne of iron ore to China with customers, industrial associations, joint venture partners, suppliers and employees in Shanghai.

Mr Andrew Mackenzie CEO of BHP Billiton was joined by President Iron Ore Mr Jimmy Wilson, President HSE, Marketing and Technology Mr Mike Henry, President Coal Mr Dean Dalla Valle and guests to reveal the commemorative plaque to mark the milestone.

Mr Mackenzie said that BHP Billiton, a leading global resources company, was proud to contribute to the important trading relationship between China and Australia and to the country’s steel industry. China is of immense importance to BHP Billiton and to Australia.

He said that “We always strive to develop closer ties with China and contribute to its development by providing long-term, reliable and high quality products at a transparent market price. BHP Billiton is very proud of the role it has helped play in China’s remarkable economic and urban growth through the trade in iron ore and other commodities. The rate of this growth, and the demand for iron ore, has been unprecedented. It took nearly 30 years for BHP Billiton to ship 100 million tonnes of iron ore to China and then only 12 more years to reach the one billion tonne milestone.”

Mr Henry acknowledged China’s extraordinary development over the past two decades and the transformational role the country’s demand had played in the global iron ore market.

He said that “Thanks to China’s tremendous achievements in manufacturing and steelmaking, part of the iron ore we export comes back to Australia as high quality infrastructure and equipment. The resources industry now relies on bulk materials handling machines, transportable buildings and rolling stock made in China. BHP Billiton’s iron ore journey with China started more than 40 years ago with the first shipment of iron ore from Port Hedland to China in 1973.”

He added that “The relationship between BHP Billiton and China has evolved beyond the two-way trade in raw materials and industrial products with the launch of the physical iron ore transaction platforms in China and Singapore in partnership with steel mills, traders and producers.”

With China accounting for nearly 50% of the world’s total steel production, Mr Wilson recognised the nation’s contribution to the development of the Pilbara in Western Australia.

Mr Wilson said that “Chinese demand growth has supported a trebling of BHP Billiton’s iron ore production over the last two decades. We are grateful for our long-term and mutually beneficial partnership with China. Our iron ore has played a part in the country’s development, and in turn China’s rapid growth has transformed the Pilbara iron ore mining industry to the benefit of Australia.”

He said that “Over the past decade, we have invested USD 25 billion in our Western Australian mines, rail and port infrastructure to deliver the high quality iron ore needed by our steel making customers in China.”

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Latin America finished steel imports from China reached 6.7 million tonnes in Jan-Oct 2014

Between January and October 2014, China shipped 6.7 million tonnes of finished steel to Latin America, 54% more than the 4.4 million tonnes registered in the same period of 2013.

Meanwhile, total exports of finished steel from China to the world continued to grow rapidly but at a slower pace. These exports reached 66.5 million tonnes, 47% more than in the same months of 2013.

The volume of Chinese steel received by Latin America accounted for 11.5% of the regional consumption (estimated in 58.5 million tonnes).

Latin America is stablishing as the second destination for Chinese steel, expanding its participation from 9.7% to 10.1% from January to October 2013 to January to October 2014. South Korea, with a share of 15.7% and an imported volume of 10.4 million tons, ranks first among Chinese destinations.

In October 2014, Latin America received 671,943 tonnes of finished steel from China, 10% more than in September (610,787 tonnes) and 51% more than in October 2013 (445,919 tonnes).

Chinese finished steel imports by destination;
The main Latin American destinations for the finished steel from China, between January and October 2014, were Brazil (received 1.6 million tonnes, 24% of the regional inflow), Chile (1 million tonnes, 15% share) and Central America (930,357 tonnes, 14% share).

In these ten months, the most significant YoY increases for imports from China (in percentage points) were registered in Argentina (+139%), Paraguay (+132%), Mexico (+ 128%) and Colombia (+125%). Argentina and Paraguay, however, continue to display very low volumes.

Mexico continues to show a steady increase of its finished steel imports from China. During the analyzed period, Mexico received 573,040 tonnes (9% of China ´s shipments to the region) and currently ranks as the sixth regional destination.

Imports from China by products;
Flat products represented 67% of the finished steel that arrived from China during January to October 2014 and reached 4.5 million tonnes.
1. Sheet and coils of other alloy steel (1.7 million tonnes, 38% of the flat steel from China)
2. Hot Galvanized (903,192 tonnes, 20%)
3. Cold Rolled Coils (896,314 tonnes, 20%).

China exported to Latin America 1.8 million tonnes of long products, mainly concentrated in:
1. Rod wire (869,938 tonnes, 54% of long products imports)
2. Bars (572,129 tonnes, 36%).

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Chinese car sales up by 2.3pct in November 2014

Data from an industry group said that China's car sales increased 2.3% YoY in November.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in a statement said that the number of vehicles sold in the world's biggest car market reached 2.09 million in the previous month.

The figure shows a marginal growth from 1.99 million units in October and 1.98 million units in September.

The association said that production and sales remained "relatively stable." Passenger car sales increased 4.7% from a year earlier to 1.78 million vehicles for the month.

The statement said that the sales of commercial and passenger vehicles have risen 6.1% to 21.08 million units for the first 11 months of 2014 in comparison with full-year sales of 21.98 million units for 2013.

This comes as China now sits atop the world’s economic perch, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which released the latest numbers for world economies by measuring purchasing power parity (PPP).

By the end of 2014, China’s economic output will amount to USD 17.6 trillion, and the US will be demoted to the second place with USD 17.4 trillion of output.

Source - www.presstv.ir
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BHP Billiton shifting focus to copper from iron ore

Bloomberg quoted the world’s largest mining company BHP Billiton Limited as saying that it’s shifting the focus of investments in new projects to copper from iron ore to meet demand from China, its biggest customer.

Mr Andrew Mackenzie CEO of BHPB said that “As we go forward, we’re likely to invest a lot more in copper than we are in iron ore. The company expects to increase copper sales to China more than iron ore and will invest in mines in Chile, Peru, South Australia and North America.”

The world’s biggest iron ore producers including Vale SA, Rio Tinto Group and BHP have spent about USD 120 billion since 2011 expanding output at record pace to feed unprecedented demand from Chinese steel mills. That’s fed a glut, plunging the price of the raw material to a five year low last month.

Mr Mackenzie said that “We expect growth in demand for copper in China to be faster than growth in demand for steel and then for iron ore as China moves more into a consumption phase and uses a lot more electricity. As your patterns of demand growth change, we will change our patterns of investment to supply and meet that demand.”

Source - Bloomberg

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