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Tax rebate for steel exports from China is likely to remain next year

According to some market insiders, there still exists great divergence referring to the policy of cancelling export tax rebate of steel export and the export tax rebate of steel products won’t be cancelled easily in 2015.

The soaring in steel production exports triggered global trade frictions frequently. Source has it that CISA was considering of cancelling tax rebate for steel products export, which has already influenced the market. The export order received by Chinese steelmakers in November and December declined sharply, considering that the tax policy may undergo changes.

At present, part of Chinese steel products can obtain 9% to 13% of tax rebate. According to industrial insiders, the policy of tax rebate accords with the principle of WTO.

Chinese steel products bear the advantage to take up the global market. Thus, related export policy should be of new normal as a result.

Even through Chinese domestic steel demand shrank, Chinese steel exports soared unexpectedly. Statistics showed that Chinese exported 73.89 million tonnes of steel products in January to October, representing a YoY increase of 42.2%.

According to CISA, Chinese steel exports is expected to break through 80 million tonnes this year, which will record a new high in history.

The steel products exports is likely to accounted for 10% of Chinese crude steel production compared to 2% to 3% in the past.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
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China iron ore demand forecast to stay steady in 2015

China Daily reported that iron ore imports are expected to grow 6.4% YoY to around 1 billion tonnes in China during 2015, driven largely by lower commodity prices and growth in domestic demand.

According to the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, Industry experts said that the growth rate is significantly lower than the estimated 14.7% increase in 2014.

Mr Li Xinchuang, deputy secretary general of China Iron and Steel Association and president of the institute said that “Although the GDP growth rate of the world's second largest economy will decline as the country restructures its growth mode, domestic steel output and demand will increase next year, which will lead to higher iron ore imports.”

Mr Li said that "The falling iron ore price is another incentive for rising imports. Iron ore prices will stay low at around USD 70 per tonne to USD 80 per tonne next year and are unlikely to fall below USD 60 per tonne.

According to a report released by the institute, iron ore imports by China during 2014 are estimated to be around 940 million tonnes, a 14.7% growth over the levels in 2013.

Mr Li said that the world's top four miners Rio Tinto Plc, BHP Billiton Ltd, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd and Vale SAcan still make profits when even iron ore prices fall to USD 60 per tonne, while the same could put a number of Chinese iron ore mines into bankruptcy.

Mr Andrew Harding, CEO of iron ore business Rio Tinto said that which has charted a capacity expansion plan from its current 290 million tons to 360 million tonnes by mid 2015, has low iron ore costs of around USD 40 per tonne.

Source – China Daily
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ArcelorMittal SA to raise steel prices

Africa’s largest steel maker, ArcelorMittal South Africa, said that it would raise its prices if the government implements a carbon tax in 2016.

The carbon tax is one of several green laws the South African government is planning to impose on industry and consumers to try and reduce emissions, and companies are scrambling to meet deadlines for the laws. At current carbon emission rates, Arcelor South Africa, part of the world’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal, would pay about ZAR 600 million of carbon taxes a year.

Mr Paul O’Flaherty CEO of ArcelorMittal said that “As a competitive company, I am going to pass the price onto my consumers. We have to engage with each other to find out how we can work together to get the right price for the industry but also, as is our right, to make a certain amount of profit.”

Source – The News
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Vale may settle Simandou iron ore lawsuit

Mining reported that Guinea is home to some of the richest and easily exploitable iron ore fields outside of Australia's Pilbara region and top producer Vale's Brazilian home base.

In May, the Guinea government and Rio Tinto and its partners China's Chalco together with the World Bank inked a game changing USD 20 billion deal for the southern section of the Simandou iron deposit. At full production Rio's Simandou concession would export up to 95 million tonnes per year that's a third of Rio's total capacity at the moment and would catapult Rio past Vale as world number one. Rio Tinto held the licence for the entire deposit, but was stripped of the northern blocks in 2008 by a former dictator of the country, one of the poorest in Africa.

BSG Resources, a company associated with Israeli diamond billionaire Beny Steinmetz acquired the concession later that year after spending $160 million exploring the property. The Guinea government withdrew the mining permit in April, accusing BSGR of obtaining its rights through corruption.

Rio Tinto subsequently filed a lawsuit for billions of dollars against both Vale and BSGR for what it called a steal of its previously-owned concession. Rio alleges BSGR paid USD 200 million bribe to Guinea's former minister using funds from Vale's initial payment.

Mr Clovis Torres, Vale’s general counsel, said that “His company might be willing to settle the lawsuit, but “never as an acceptance of guilt. What may be even more absurd than this lawsuit is the high cost of legal processes in the US. So to avoid the additional absurdity of incurring even more costs, we could without a doubt think of something along those lines.”

Source - Mining
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Arcelor levert weer staal voor cruiseschepen
MAANDAG 8 DECEMBER 2014, 12:35 uur | 1 keer gelezen
Arcelor levert weer staal voor cruiseschepen
LUXEMBURG (AFN) - ArcelorMittal heeft een contract getekend met de Franse scheepswerf STX voor de levering van staal voor de bouw van drie cruiseschepen. Het staalconcern maakte maandag bekend minimaal 116.000 ton staal te zullen leveren. Financiële details werden niet bekendgemaakt.
In juli vorig jaar maakte ArcelorMittal bekend ruim 40.000 ton staal te leveren aan STX voor de bouw van 's werelds grootste cruiseschip, uit de 'Oasis'-klasse van rederij Royal Caribbean Cruise Line (RCCL). Een van de drie schepen die STX gaat bouwen is opnieuw in opdracht van RCCL, de andere twee zijn besteld door MSC Cruises, dat met een recent aangekondigd investeringsprogramma van 5 miljard euro zijn positie bij de vier grootste cruisebedrijven ter wereld wil veiligstellen.
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TATA Steel first time acquire iron ore in its history - MD

PTI reported that facing iron ore crunch for the first time in its over 100 years of history, TATA Steel is now operating its 9.7 million tonnes per annum facility in Jamshedpur with raw material bought from domestic sources besides imports.

The company, which has bought 2.3 million tonnes iron ore to run its lone steel—making facility in the country, said that the quantum of buying would go up if its closed mines do not start production.

Mr TV Narendran MD of TATA Steel said that “For the first time in our history, we are running our plant with bought out iron ore as all our mines are closed. There are issues with both Jharkhand and Odisha. We have court cases going on in both Ranchi and Cuttack High Courts.”

Mr Narendran said that the company has bought iron ore from state-run NMDC besides importing the key steel making raw material from Australia. While it has bought around 0.8 million tonnes from NMDC, the remaining is imports from Australia.

He said when asked how much the company could end up buying the raw material in the current fiscal, that “We are buying iron ore on a daily basis. If the mines start, we will stop buying.”

Source - PTI
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TATA Steel may rely on iron ore imports on Odisha mines closure

Business Standard reported that closure of iron ore mines in Jharkhand and more recently in Odisha has prompted TATA Steel to resort to imports and domestic sourcing for its Jamshedpur plant for most of its requirements

TATA Steel said that in Odisha, Joda East, Katamati, Bamebari and Joda West iron mines were operating under the Express Order issued by the state government and the procedure for the renewal of the lease was underway.

TATA Steel's mining lease for Joda East and Katamati iron ore mines that account for two-third of the company's production, has been suspended by the Odisha government recently, the key reason being expiry of statutory clearances.

Source - Business Standard
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Indian iron ore imports hit record 6.8 million tonnes in 7 months

Reuters reported that India's iron ore imports rose to a record 6.76 million tonnes in the first seven months of its fiscal year

As per Reuter report, JSW Steel has imported 4.6 million tonnes and TATA Steel nearly 1 million tonnes.

Formerly the world's No. 3 supplier of iron ore, India has been importing over the last two years due to court-imposed restrictions aimed at curbing illegal mining in the key producing states of Karnataka and Goa. The shortage deepened this year as some mines in Odisha and Jharkhand were ordered closed after the expiry of licences.

Source - Reuters
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China's steel demand forecast at 720 million tonnes in 2015 - Industry Body

According to a report released by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, China's steel demand is forecast to rise 1.41% YoY to reach 720 million tonnes in 2015. The steel consumption for 2014 is estimated to grow 2.45% YoY to 710 million tonnes.

It also predicted that China's crude steel production will increase by 5.26% and 1.7% from a year earlier to 810 million tonnes and 834 million tonnes, respectively, in 2014 and 2015 and the country’s pig iron production will reach 720 million tonnes and 732 million tonnes, a gain of 1.56% and 1.67%.

Iron ore demand for 2015 is forecast to hit 1.157 billion tonnes, a YoY growth of 1.67%. Iron ore imports next year are expected to grow 6.4% YoY to 1 billion tonnes. The report also gave projections for demand from steel-consuming downstream sectors.

Mr Li Xinchuang, head of the industry body said that "The steel consumption from downstream sectors will only maintain modest growth next year amid a slowdown in economic growth and exports. The steel consumption growth from almost all the sectors will decline. The steel consumption from the building and machinery industries is predicted to rise by 1.28% and 3% YoY to reach 395 million tonnes and 144 million tonnes in 2015, with the pace narrowing from the estimated 2.4% and 5.3% in 2014.”

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
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China's steel firms must evolve or perish - CISA

Xinhua cited Mr Zhu Jimin, head of the China Iron and Steel Association as saying that China's steel firms must change if they want to avoid more hard times.

According to the latest CISA figures, the warning comes at a hard time for steel makers. In the first nine months, a quarter of China's steel makers operated at a loss. Revenues of large and medium steel companies dipped to CNY 2.7 trillion in the January to September period.

The steel sector is entering its new normal just like the whole economy; slower but higher quality growth.

Mr Zhu attributes the bad days mainly to this new normal, which is likely to lead to shrinking steel production and consumption.

The industry also faces challenges from higher environmental protection standards, as the newly-amended environmental protection law takes effect on January 1st 2015.

Currently the environmental protection costs of advanced steel companies stand at CNY 130 per tonne, but a few backward companies are only paying CNY 10 to CNY 20 per tonne on pollution control.

Mr Zhu expected China's steel output in 2014 to increase by a mere 2 compared to the expected 7.4% for the economy as a whole.

Source - Xinhua
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Arab steel makers union considers protecting local steel industry

The Arab Iron and Steel Union board of directors met in Dubai recently, in the presence of its members representing the iron and steel industry in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, Algeria and Bahrain.

The participants discussed several subjects on top of which is the unjustified sudden increase in imports to the Arab region, whether from reinforced steel or flat steel products, in very low prices, causing severe damages to the national industry in the concerned Arab countries.

They warned of the destructive effect, particularly of the Chinese imports entering the region in prices much less than the international and local prices, thus threatening the Arab companies whose local markets are exposed to severe dumping, affecting its production volume and profits as well, which in turn damages the large investments in current and future steel industry projects.

The huge production surplus in China instigated several countries, including Canada and America, to impose dumping fees of around 110%. While Turkey increased its customs fees on reinforced steel from 15% to 30% to 30% to 40%, some European countries also imposed 13% to 45% customs protection fees on the Chinese flats steel products.

Since the Chinese production of reinforced steel and flat steel sweeps global markets, the Arab Iron and Steel Union warned the Arab governments that the lack of influential customs protection in most of the region’s countries will lead to escalation of the problem.

The union also called on the governments to review the customs fees on imports and raise it to the level that could stave off the threat of cheap imports and to put into effect the measures that would ensure compliance of imported iron with the standard specifications that guarantee quality product along the lines of the local product.

Source – Arab News
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Italian steel scrap market report: December started with some positive sounds

Alocci Rapprasentanze Industriali reported that we see the 2014 coming close with the prices of barrel, iron ore, and ferrous scrap dropping very sharply in Q4. Iron ore has broken the USD 75 wall for the first time after five years, and crude oil prices are now below USD 70 referring to the Opec daily basket price. It is important to understand how much these trends are related to the market demand and how much related to the geopolitical turmoil. It seems that the iron prices are driven by the lower demand, basically in China, but also by the will of BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale to put out of the market more competitors as possible, using the current lower prices. This is in order to cut their production for getting higher prices in the second half of 2015.

Same situation for the crude oil: the lower world demand and the strong US shale gas production are lowering the prices. This trend is influenced also by the will of Saudi Arabia to put out the more expensive US gas productions. Moreover the objective of the US and Saudi Arabia is to put pressure on Russia using the low oil prices.

Regarding the ferrous scrap the drop is the direct consequence of the strong export of long steel products from China at low prices. The Chinese steel is now offered in the main markets where usually the Turkish steel makers placed their sales. It will be interesting to see if in 2015 the market will be driven by the traditional rules or if the geopolitical and competition affairs will keep the prices at the current or lower level.

The very negative October, here in Italy, conditioned also the November steel chain operators’ job. The main scrap consumer, Arvedi, returned to the full production only at the end of the month. Another mill, Stefana, cut its production for about 10 days, due to a heavy maintenance to the main LNG regional pipe. Unchanged the non-production situation at the Lucchini Piombino and at the ThyssenKrupp Terni plant. Always very low stays the production at Ilva Taranto. Because of all the above, the scrap market remained oversupplied and prices weak.

The weekly domestic prices moved down about EUR 15 during the month, with only a small bounce the last week of November. The monthly import contracts from the European suppliers, settled at the beginning of November, have been reduced by EUR 20. The arrivals at the Italian ports have been abt 15 Kilo tonne for scrap, abt 140 Kilo tonne for pig iron and abt 65 Kilo tonne for HBI. The mills inventories remained fully recovered, also due to the low steel production.

Following the November official average prices reported (€/pmt delivered):
New arising E8:
Italy 245
France 250
Germany 250

Shredded E40:
Italy 250
France 250
Germany 250

Demolition scrap E3:
Italy 225
France 225
Germany 225.

The expectation for the December contracts are conditioned by the end of year holidays and the related production breaks. Some Mills will stop the melting during week 50, others week 51 until the week 2/2015. Only Arvedi Cremona will work at full capacity during the month. Prices are expected unchanged, even if some excitements are reported this week, for the haste of the mills to cover their December needs in short time.

It is important to point out that December started with some positive sounds. The sale of the Lucchini Piombino plant to Cevital Group has been settled after a long deal under the Economic Development Ministry direction. Cevital is an Algerian private company who presented a business plan based on 2 million tonne per year steel production, by means of two new EAF’s and a new rolling line. After long fights and strikes the ThyssenKrupp AST owners, the Metalworkers Unions and the Economic Development Ministry reached an agreement to restart the production at the Terni plant, under a new business plan granting the full employment.

Now the Italian Government is working to find a fast solution to save the Ilva group by a temporary direct participation of the CDP (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti) a joint stock company under public control for the time needed to complete the environmental clean up and the revamping. After that the company will be offered on the market to the potential buyers.

Source - Alocci Rapprasentanze Industriali Via recyclingportal.eu
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Construction demand for steel expected to hit highest point in 8 years - Thompson Research Group

According to a forecast by Thompson Research Group, workers from Superior Construction prepare beams on US 12 for decking spanning Old Hobart Road in September. Demand for cold pressed steel in non residential construction projects is projected to hit its highest point since 2007.

The steel industry has suffered from weak pricing and low, uneven growth for seven long years. But the outlook for next year looks better, at least for cold-formed steel products that are used in construction.

Ms Kathryn Thompson CEO of Thompson Research Group projected growth in the high single digits in a forecast she did for the Steel Framing Industry Association, a trade group. 2015 should end up being the best year since before the Great Recession.

Ms Thompson said that "The main economic indicators certainly point to better days ahead, but the improved outlook for cold formed steel framing really began in 2014 when there was a significant change in the pricing trends. Since 2009, every attempted price increase was followed by an equal or greater pricing decline. Pricing stabilized in 2014, and increased production volumes have established a platform for growth in 2015."

She said that the steel industry's slow recovery after the Great Recession has been especially hampered by a lack of nonresidential construction, but that's finally been picking up. Developers are no longer pursuing as many retail projects as they did before the downturn, but now are building more call centers, warehouses, factories and apartments, meaning more demand for heavier grade steel. It's still probably 15% off what it had been.

She added that new construction, especially on major infrastructure projects such as the Panama Canal expansion, should drive growth between 5% and 10% in 2015. While we don't see explosive growth in 2015, it should be a year when everyone finally has reason to believe that the recovery from the Great Recession is underway.

Mr Larry Williams, Executive Director of Steel Framing Industry said that “Imports have grabbed a greater market share, but most of the imported cold formed steel product are used mainly in Southern California and the Seattle area. Domestic producers in the Midwest should still benefit from the increased demands.”

He said that "The prospects of real growth in 2015 presents to all those who manufacture, distribute and install steel framing with the best opportunity in nearly a decade to increase the use of our products."

Source – NWI Times
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Vale to consider base metals IPO only if nickel rallies

Reuters reported that a possible public listing of a stake in the base metals unit of Brazil's Vale SA hinges on a rally in nickel prices of around 20%.

Mr Luciano Siani CFO of Vale SA said that "We want to see nickel prices above USD 20,000 per tonne in order to consider such an option, I would say well above."

Earlier this week Vale, the world's largest producer of iron ore, said it was considering an initial public offering of 30% to 40% of its base metals division, because the unit was undervalued by the market.

Benchmark nickel on the London Metal Exchange closed at USD 16,825 per tonne on Friday after a roller coaster ride this year.

Mr Siani said that if nickel prices reached USD 21,000 per tonne and copper USD 6,600 per tonne next year, the company would meet the lower end of its 2015 target for the base metals unit of USD 4 billion to USD 6 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

He estimated that if copper and nickel reach those levels, the unit would be worth USD 30 billion to USD 35 billion. If the price increases do not materialize, the IPO is not an option. If the (nickel) prices don't rise, we will not be doing it, definitely not at today's levels. It would not be a possibility.

Investors piled into the market, expecting shortages to develop after top exporter Indonesia imposed a ban on unprocessed ore, but unexpected supply from the Philippines filled the gap, weighing on prices.

Mr Siani said that "One of the reasons that we are considering such an option (an IPO) is that everyone is predicting deficits and that the price will increase."

He estimated that other producers are losing money on around 220 million tonnes of global iron ore mining capacity. If it goes maybe another USD 10 lower than that, it will hurt a lot of other major producers, so that's a strong reason to believe it's not going to happen, unless there's a total collapse in demand that no one has foreseen.

Source - Reuters
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Brazil's iron ore exports down 16pct in November

According to the information released by the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade, Brazil's iron ore export volume amounted to 25.96 million tonnes in November this year, decreasing by 18.3% compared to October and down 16% compared to the same month of 2013.

Brazil's iron ore export value in November totaled USD 1.58 billion, decreasing by 16.44% compared to the previous month and down 47.5% YoY.

In November, Brazil's export volume of semi-finished products of iron and steel amounted to 567,300 tonnes decreasing by 10.17% compared to the previous month and up 30.8% compared to the same month of the previous year, while these exports were valued at USD 285.1 million, decreasing 5.41% compared to October and up 29.8% YoY.

Meanwhile, in November Brazil's flat steel exports totaled 288,100 tonnes decreasing by 7.9% from October and up 276.1% YoY. The revenue generated by these exports totaled USD 188.1 million, decreasing by 16.47% MoM and up 181.16 from the November 2013 level.

Source -Visit www.steelorbis.com for more
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Turkish scrap imports fall in first 10 months

According to data released by the Turkish Steel Producers’ Association, Turkey’s scrap imports totaled 16.25 million tonnes in the first ten months decreasing by 1.6% YoY.

The country’s scrap import revenues totaled USD 6.15 billion in the given period, decreasing by 2.4% from the same time a year ago.

Europe was the largest scrap exporter to Turkey with around 8.8 million tonnes the US was the second largest one with 3.25 million tonnes and the CIS was the third largest one with 3.2 million tonnes.

Source - www.yieh.com

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Partial victory for Indian steel mills at WTO in US steel export dispute

On 8 December 2014, the WTO Appellate Body issued its report in the case “United States - Countervailing Measures on Certain Hot-Rolled Carbon Steel Flat Products from India” (DS436), a partial victory for India in US steel dispute.

WTO upheld in part a judgment that the US broke global trade rules by imposing import duties on Indian steel products, in a mixed ruling that also found elements in Washington's favor.

In one of the most complicated cases it has ever considered, the WTO's Appellate Body reversed some of the findings made by the organization’s dispute settlement panel in July and upheld others. It found in favour of both sides in technical elements of the dispute, but concluded that the US was "inconsistent with its obligations" and should be brought into line.

India filed its complaint at the WTO in 2012, after Washington imposed duties of nearly 300 percent on imports of products. The case involved US duties imposed because a portion of the iron ore used to produce Indian steel came from India's top iron ore miner NMDC, a state run company that supplies steelmakers

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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China steel exports rise to record nearing 10 million tonnes in November

According to data from the Chinese customs, steel export shipments in November 2014 increased 14% MoM to 9.72 million tonnes. Total exports in the first 11 months of 2014 at 83.6 million tonnes are 47% higher than the same period last year

Burdened with huge overcapacity and major slow down in domestic demand, Chinese steel mills have stepped up steel exports especially in last 3 months.

2012 - 51.2 million tonnes (Monthly average of 4.3 million tonnes)

2013 - 57.2 million tonnes (Monthly average of 4.8 million tonnes)

11 Months - 83.6 million tonnes (Monthly average of 7.6 million tonnes)

Last 3 months - 26.8 million tonnes (Monthly average of 8.9 million tonnes)
Nov’14 - 9.72 million tonnes
Oct’14 - 8.55 million tonnes
Sep’14 - 8.52 million tonnes

Chinese economy and steel industry has undergone radical change over last 1 year spelling devastation for global steel mills. It has changed tact from buying driven by high growth model to modulating investment driven balancing model. Growth has plummeted to 7.3% lowest in the last 5 years and portends to be no better in Q4. China has got 1.1 billion tonne steel capacity whereas it is projected to produce 820 million tonnes in 2014. Even at 75% capacity utilization the steel industry is left with surplus volume owing to lack of domestic demand. With near demise of property market and construction activity ebbing in China, mills are running helter skelter to liquidate volumes. Incidentally, production pruning is the last word in China owing to compelling social obligations of employment. Domestic mills in China have diverted volumes to export with twin objective of liquidating surplus volume and quest for better realization propped by rather dubious export incentive structure. But to almost double steel exports in last 3 months over 2013 monthly average, Chinese steel mills have cut their export prices drastically. The low export prices have helped Chinese steel mills to grab major volumes from major steel importing countries across the globe.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Vale predicts rebound in iron ore prices

The Australian reported that the world’s biggest iron ore producer, Brazil’s Vale, has given the battered Australian iron ore industry some hope prices for the steelmaking raw material will rebound.

Vale told an investor briefing in London that the plunge in iron ore from USD 135 per tonne at the start of the year to USD 71.77 per tonne had overshot to the downside.

Mr Peter Poppinga Vale’s executive director of ferrous minerals tipped that the price will bounce back in the very near future.

But Mr Poppinga’s call was based on expected seaborne demand of 1.52 billion tonnes of iron ore, which he argued points to a hypothetical price of USD 90 per tonne. He said that if prices of around USD 70 per tonne were to persist in to 2015, as much as 220 million tonnes of iron ore production would be non competitive, meaning demand would have to suddenly shrink to 1.3 billion tonnes.

Mr Poppinga said that “It shouldn’t be my objective here to discuss if USD 90 is correct or USD 70 is correct, the market is always right. What I am saying is just that we have huge quantities to 220m tonnes of non-competitive iron ore out there. The 220 million tonnes of high-cost iron ore production will not be sustained.”

He said that “I can tell you it is already happening. We have lots of Chinese, many private companies and mainly located at the coastline, which are, of course, competing against the seaborne (market) already exiting. We have some other juniors, some other seaborne (market) players exiting.”

As the world’s biggest producer with 327 million tonnes of production in 2014 (Rio Tinto is the next biggest with about 300 million tonnes), Vale could be accused of talking its own book.

Source - The Australian
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IRC sees iron ore stabilizing at USD 70 as mines close

According to IRC Limited, iron ore’s collapse to the lowest level in five years is coming to an end as the rout prompts some Chinese mines to cease output.

Prices are approaching the cost of production for many global suppliers, according to Mr Jay Hambro, chairman of the Hong Kong listed miner. He said “The raw material is likely to stabilize at about USD 70 per tonne next year as more mines close. China is the world’s biggest consumer.”

Mr Hambro said that “We are at a point of enormous pain. You could see some short term volatility beneath USD 70 but my gut feeling is that USD 70 is where it will stabilize for a while.”

Source - Bloomberg
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