TMK update market conditions on Q4 and FY 2014
Russia;
In the Q4 of 2014, the Russian pipe market increased by 5% compared to the previous quarter. For the full year 2014, the Russian pipe market rose by 9% YoY. Such growth in both periods was mainly the result of higher consumption of LD pipe. In the Q4 of 2014, the seamless OCTG market in Russia increased by 8% QoQ largely as a result of seasonally stronger demand. For the full year 2014, seamless OCTG consumption decreased by 6% compared to the previous year, due to a 5% decline in drilling activity.
The Q4 2014 LD pipe market rose by 44% over the prior quarter. Average growth for the full year 2014 was similar and also amounted to 44%. Such a strong increase for both periods was largely driven by higher demand from Gazprom and Transneft projects.
In the Q4 of 2014, the seamless line pipe market increased by 16% QoQ while the welded line pipe market decreased by 17% for the same period. At the same time, for the full year 2014, both seamless and welded line pipe markets grew by 5% and 9% YoY respectively. Demand for line pipe was mainly driven by higher pipeline construction activity in Russia.
In the Q4 of 2014, the seamless and welded industrial pipe market decreased by 19% and 14% respectively compared to the Q3 of 2014, partially due to seasonally lower demand from the construction sector. For the full year 2014, seamless industrial pipe consumption declined by 4% YoY while welded industrial pipe market grew by 4% over the same period.
America;
According to Baker Hughes, in the Q4 of 2014, the average rig count remained relatively flat compared to the prior quarter. A slight decrease in the oil rig count, as crude oil prices began to fall, was offset by a 5% growth in the natural gas rig count. For the full year 2014, the average rig count increased by 6% YoY from 1,761 for the full year 2013 to 1,862 for the full year 2014, due to an increase in oil drilling activity.
Further to an increase in rig count, more pipe per rig was used, as operators continued to drill more horizontal wells which typically consume more pipe. YoY, the combined horizontal and directional rig count grew from 75% of total rigs for the full year 2013 to 80% for the full year 2014.
Line pipe shipments in the Q4 of 2014 were down by 2% compared to the previous quarter, while full year 2014 shipments decreased by 7% compared to the full year 2013, due to reductions in 2014 pipeline construction projects.
According to Pipe Logix, fourth quarter 2014 average welded and seamless OCTG prices increased by 2% each, while yearly average prices rose by 2% and 1% respectively for the full year 2014 compared to the full year 2013. Line pipe market prices were both slightly down for the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to the previous quarter and for the full year 2014 compared to the full year 2013.
Europe;
In the Q4 of 2014, European steel pipe demand remained weak with end-users focusing on spot orders in anticipation of more favorable payment terms and customers maintaining their inventories at a minimum level. For the full year 2014, the reduced demand and overcapacity led to stronger competition in the European market and downward pressure on prices. Additional challenges came from rising imports of seamless and welded pipe from non EU countries.
Source - Strategic Research Institute