Natuurlijk; die laatste opmerking is cruciaal. Maar het is wel lekker rekenen...
How big is the addressable market?
Well, that gets tricky; there doesn’t seem to be an easy-to-find stat on how much fuel is used by powerboats, much less all outdoor uses where there’s a market for ethanol-free fuel.
But we know it’s big. The 2011 Recreational Boating Survey found 10.11 million power boats in the US. 70% of them were operated in the past year, and an average of 75 hours of operation and an average of 100 horsepower in the engine. Boating Magazine advises a rule of thumb of 0.5 pounds of fuel per HP per hour, without taking into account boat drag., sea conditions and so on. Putting all those together, we came up with a 4.4 billion gallon addressable market for powerboats. We’d be guessing at fuel sales for home-based outdoor power equipment, but there’s additional market available.
Now, addressable is one thing, sales are quite another. But, there’s some heft in this sector when mapped against Gevo’s capacity and any capacity Butamax might develop. And, ample evidence of an ethanol-free premium that isobutanol, if well-positioned, might capture some of, or even all of.