Steel Market Players Assessing Impact of Turkish Earthquakes
Strategic Research Institute
Published on :
9 Feb, 2023, 5:58 am
After several major earthquakes hit Turkey on Monday & Tuesday, rescue efforts are on to save lives with death toll crossing 12,000 at the time of writing, assessment of damage has started. With the incident being so fresh, it is impossible to clearly assess its impact on the steel market. Prima facie steel mills in tremor hit Iskenderun region in south east of Turkey are reported to have escaped serious damages; Iskenderun’s port is reported to have shut down operations after sustaining damage. The coming days should bring more clarity, for now, everyone’s thoughts are with those affected.
But as the earthquake happened at a region that is heavily involved in steel production where lots of small to large sized integrated mills and re-rollers are located accounting for about 25% of Turkey’s total production of 35 million tonne, steel production is likely to be disrupted for some time as well as steel scrap import market may get disturbed. As a result market players are examining impact on global steel markets
The first opinion is that this could lead to reduction in Turkish demand for scrap, pressuring scrap import benchmark. But we need to wait to see the outcome as Iskenderun steel mills only account for 18% of Turkey scrap imports since April 22 and cancellations also not expected with very small damage to mills & bulk terminals
As Turkey is a major steel exporter with almost 20 million tonnes in 2022 mainly to Europe, MENA & US, the question is will steel export be impacted and for which markets and products. Market insiders say that disruption is likely to be minimal for flat steel products as major exporters are based in East part or at Black Sea, which are not impacted
As almost 80% of mills in the region are long steel producers, there will be a reduction in long steel availability in immediate terms, tightening the long steel market and supporting export prices from the Turkey
Earthquakes are not uncommon in Turkey. Most of the country is situated on the Anatolian Plate, which borders two major fault lines: the North Anatolian fault and the East Anatolian fault. The East Anatolian Fault is a major strike-slip fault zone running from eastern to south-central Turkey. It forms the transform type tectonic boundary between the Anatolian Plate and the northward-moving Arabian Plate. The difference in the relative motions of the two plates is manifest in the left lateral motion along the fault. The East and North Anatolian faults together accommodate the westward motion of the Anatolian Plate as it is squeezed out by the ongoing collision with the Eurasian Plate. The East Anatolian Fault runs in a northeasterly direction, starting from the Maras Triple Junction at the northern end of the Dead Sea Transform, and ending at the Karliova Triple Junction where it meets the North Anatolian Fault.