President Joe Biden’s favorability rating exceeded former President Donald Trump’s for the fifth straight week in a row, the longest stretch since April of last year, in the wake of his felony conviction Thursday in Manhattan, according to a Morning Consult survey taken Friday through Sunday—but the poll also found Trump would still beat Biden if the election were held today.
Trump and Biden remain virtually tied, as Trump's early polling lead slips
The poll found Trump leads Biden 44% to 43%, a one-point decline for the former president since Morning Consult’s previous poll taken before Trump’s conviction, despite a majority of voters saying they approve of the conviction.
Of four major polls that overlapped with the verdict, Biden leads in two of them: He’s ahead by two points in a Reuters/Ipsos survey taken Thursday and Friday and by one point in a Morning Consult survey taken Friday, while the race is tied in an I&I/TIPP survey taken Wednesday to Friday and Trump leads by two points in a HarrisX survey conducted Thursday and Friday.
While the polls appear to be a positive sign for Biden’s campaign, all of the results fall within the polls’ margins of error, and the I&I/TIPP poll shows an improvement for Trump since the group’s May survey, when he trailed Biden by two percentage points.
But there are other warning signs for Trump: An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted on Friday and Saturday found 49% of Americans want Trump to end his campaign after his conviction in New York, up one point from an April Ipsos poll.
On a national scale, other May polls show Trump and Biden are virtually tied, including an Economist/YouGov survey that found Trump beating Biden by just one point in a five-way race, a Fox News poll that found Trump leading by one point in a head-to-head matchup, a Reuters/Ipsos poll that found Trump and Biden were tied, while Morning Consult’s weekly poll taken May 26-28 shows Trump leading Biden by two points.
In the the seven crucial swing states that will likely decide the election—Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania—all of which Biden won narrowly in 2020 with the exception of North Carolina, polls consistently show Trump leads Biden.
A May Cook Political Report survey found Trump up by three points in the seven states, a May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found Trump leads Biden by four points overall across the battleground states, and an April New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), with the exception of Wisconsin.
Bron: Forbes