Deze poster, Thoughtfull Investing, kan altijd leuk schrijven over de handel in Cydy stock.
2 hours ago
Current Share Price Down Action - An Objective View:
Volume yesterday was 22 million shares which is multiple times the 6 million 10 day average (see Yahoo Statistics) and the share price has plunged (calling a spade a spade) from over $5 (50 day moving average on Yahoo Statistics) down to $2.35 and may fall even further today as the shorts resume their attack.
What does this mean? Well not as much as it viscerally feels. The price is being driven by a very small percentage of the shares outstanding. Shares outstanding are 598 million (Yahoo Finance Statistics) and yesterdays volume was 22 million. 22/598 = 3.7% of the shares traded yesterday. It's actually weaker than that. Short volume yesterday was only 7.6 million or only 34.5% of the 22 million total volume and only 1% of the shares outstanding. Further, the last reported short interest as of 2/26 was only 23 million shares which is only 3.8% of the shares outstanding.
What is going on? How can such a small percentage of the shares outstanding have such a large effect on the share price?
Simple, insiders and institutions, who are stronger hands, hold under 10% of the shares outstanding (Yahoo Finance Statistics). They are the group least susceptible to shorter FUD tactics (spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt through outright lies or baseless claims designed to drive the share price down). The group most susceptible to FUD, retail investors like you and me, own more than 90% of the shares outstanding. FUD works best on us. That is why the short faction has picked on Cytodyn, because it has a shareholder constituency that is easiest to manipulate with FUD.
Shorter FUD efforts have been magnified by the company's erratic and confusing PR efforts. Not saying that substantively, the drug is not great. The trial data disclosed to date reveals it works great for Covid, great for HIV, is very promising in NASH and cancer. Further, it appears that a regulatory approval breakthrough could even occur sooner rather than later due to the CD012 solid results. Not saying the company hasn't made mistakes. Dr. Bruce Patterson is likely right that CD012 should have been designed to make sure there was no age skew for over 65 in the leronlimab arm because older people have weaker immune systems. By making lame excuses for mistakes rather than admitting them and moving on, management provide more fodder for FUD.
further, NP's insistence on controlling the scientific trial result narrative even though he plainly does not have the expertise and is admittedly learning on the job in this area (not a criticism of learning on the job, he has learned a lot and it is typical of companies like this) has resulted in confusing, round about explanations and lots of backfilling that makes the company sound weak and plays into the short basher's hands. It's like sticking out your chin and saying hit me. The company needs to hire a cruiser class PR firm to avoid shooting itself in the foot.
In the meantime, how could this improve? Dr. Rachman should be taking the lead in discussing trial results and regulatory discussions and prospects because he has the most success in this area of anyone in the company. That is why he was hired. Dr. Kelly should discuss overall scientific direction of the company based on Dr. Rachman's recommendations or results of studies or trials conducted by the company. Mr. Mulholland should discuss financial state of the company and its ability to fund its activities. And NP should discuss any fundraising efforts, potential strategic partner possibilities to the extend he can reveal them and contracts to manufacture or sell product in the US or other countries. NP should answer questions directly in as few words as possible without first using all sorts of non-factual hyperbole about how great everyone does their job. This would leave a smaller target for the shorts to leverage with their FUD.
But again, 598 million shares outstanding, 7.6 million short volume yesterday, that's only about 1% driving the price down aided and abetted by an avalanche of FUD.
I am ignoring it. Near term, given the pandemic, it is very likely that some country will grant an EUA and sales will start soon. Will it be June or May or March? Certainly, I have no idea other than given the negotiation with the various regulatory agencies and the strong CD012 trial results showing leronlimab is a valuable treatment for Covid, it is logical that it could happen at any time. I am holding for that time and the results of the long hauler, NASH and cancer trials and the filing of the HIV BLA. I am ignoring the 1% short action no matter where the share price goes. I was never going to sell before the approvals and now that Covid approval is clearly going to happen sooner or later, I am definitely not selling any share.