Eurobench.com

[verwijderd] 24 januari 2011 16:53

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www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0a66232c-27af ... z1By3IFrRX

Gilts in line for worst fixed income investment

By James Grant
Published: January 24 2011 12:03 | Last updated: January 24 2011 12:03
Stiff is the early competition for “Worst Fixed Income Investment of 2011”. There’s much to be said for – or, rather, against – the obligations of the state of Illinois, the debts of the peripheral nations of the eurozone and the trillions of yen-denominated Japanese government bonds.

Better, however – or, rather, worse – is a dark horse. Gilts yield no more than the running rate of UK inflation. And they are denominated in an inflation-prone currency that has lost more than 99 per cent of its original gold value. With respect to the solemn obligations of Her Majesty’s Treasury, the balance of risk and reward favours the short-seller.

The underlying problem is that “gilts” are ungilded. And as the modern currency is virtually weightless, “pound” too is a misnomer. Not since 1931 has sterling (another misnomer) been exchangeable for gold at a fixed and statutory rate. Not since 1971 has any currency been even remotely tied to a fixed standard of value. In place of the gold standard, the world has put in place a Macroeconomic Forecasting and Price Index standard. In monetary governance, we have swapped the price mechanism for mandarin rule.

If you haven’t heard the creditors complain, it’s because they’ve had it their own way for so long. Since the inflationary nadir in the mid-1970s, 10-year gilts have rallied to 3.7 per cent or so from 15 per cent. Richard Sylla and the late Sidney Homer, in their standard volume, A History of Interest Rates, showed that bond yields have risen and fallen in generation-length intervals since the late 19th century. The past 30 years or so have comprised the falling portion of the cycle.

Whom should investors thank for this pleasant, persistent tailwind? The mandarins have modestly raised their hands. “Since the monetary policy committee was set up,” Governor Mervyn King of the Bank of England declared in 2007, “economic growth has averaged 2.8 per cent a year – a little above the postwar average rate – and there has not been a single quarter of negative growth. The average deviation of inflation from target has been just minus 0.08 percentage points.”

The monetary policy committee is, of course, the Bank’s interest-rate setting arm. It came into the world in 1997 as Gordon Brown cut the Bank loose from Treasury control. With this stroke, the then UK chancellor seemed to realise the hopes of the 20th century’s great economic rationalists, from Irving Fisher (author of seminal works on price indices as well as that ill-starred 1929 stock market call) to John Maynard Keynes. The Fishers and the Keyneses wanted to separate monetary value from the vagaries of mining. They wanted to separate domestic interest-rate policy from the ball and chain of exchange-rate policy. The wit of man was more than equal to the job of contriving a monetary system based on cold analysis.

In fact, the wit of man has shown rather poorly – and not only in the past five fiscal quarters in which the Bank missed its inflation target by a wide and widening margin. A one-paragraph history of modern monetary systems would take something like this form. The classical gold standard delivered point-to-point price stability, along with interim booms and busts and panics, in the 100 years to 1914. Its successor – a dog’s breakfast of monetary makeshifts, from the so-called gold exchange standard to the present-day mandarin method – has delivered chronic inflation, along with interim booms and busts and panics in the 97 years since.

Ultra-low interest rates were suitable enough during the classical gold standard, when the price level tended to fall in peacetime and rise in wartime. They are demonstrably unsuitable – certainly, for bondholders – under a paper-currency system. No longer are prices allowed to fall, even when the cost of production is falling. Rather, the Bank of England – along with most every other central bank under the sun – actually strives for debasement. In the UK, in December, the rate of inflation measured not 2 per cent, the Bank’s bullseye, but 3.7 per cent.

What should a gilt owner do? Sit tight, comes counsel from on high. The inflationary bump will pass, the central bankers insist. Mark it down to one-offs – in value added tax, in commodity prices – or the previous weakness in sterling. Notice, please, the apologists urge, the UK’s measured growth in wages and its abundant spare productive capacity. Observe, too, the lack of concern, let alone panic, in the market for inflation-linked bonds. In other words, trust the mandarins – this time – not to let a little inflation become too much.

As the future is a closed book, the apologists may be right. However, on form, they are wrong. In 1931, a pound bought almost a quarter ounce of gold. Today, it will buy 1/850th of an ounce. The 21st century model gilt is almost designed to depreciate. This year – in the world’s worst bond competition – it may just take first place.

James Grant is the editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

[verwijderd] 28 januari 2011 17:40

5

De DZZ zo rond de top aangeschaft heeft tot nu toe de winsten uitstekend gelocked.

Gold (GC : NASDAQ : US$1,314.00), Net Change: -19.00, % Change: -1.43%
Gold set to test its 200-day moving average of US$1,280? With the economy supposedly improving, investors are asking why they still need a "safe haven" investment. After all, there is absolutely no fear in the market. No fear of inflationary pressures. No fear of political instability. No fear of economic uncertainty. The world is a perfect place. The truth is the world isn't a perfect place. And the fear will return. But for now, fear only lives in those who are long gold from higher levels. The 200-day moving average will definitely be gut check time for many. As David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates said, "The 200-day moving average is $1,280/oz and in the past, periodic corrections like this have proven to be nice re-entry points." We repeat the following to ourselves when our faith in gold sometimes wanders, "Macro-economic conditions in 2011 will continue to favour higher gold prices, including increasing global U.S. dollar liquidity, low real interest rates, global fiscal imbalances, sovereign debt concerns, and wavering faith in the U.S. dollar. The outcome of global financial stimulus efforts is broad currency devaluation, inflation and gold’s increases status as a reserve and investment asset. We continue to believe in the likelihood of further quantitative easing, which should further increases global liquidity levels from current record levels."

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 30 januari 2011 19:19

0

Howdy,

The 13 Countries That Control the World’s Gold
Posted: January 26, 2011 at 4:53 pm

Even if 2011 has gotten off to a rough start for gold, everyone knows that the value of gold is at historic highs.
What is interesting is that there is rarely a discussion about which countries actually have a lock on the world’s gold.
24/7 Wall St has compiled a list of the top 13 nations which hold the bulk of the world’s gold reserves and added in an outlook for 2011.

After having peaked above $1,420 per ounce at the end of 2010, gold has recently traded under $1,330 per ounce and
has basically put in 3-month lows. As part of its analysis 24/7 Wall St. looked at the trends of the world’s top holders that may
drive demand up or down ahead in 2011 after taking a look at the new data from the World Gold Council.

bron en rest van pagina 1, 2 en 3: 247wallst.com/2011/01/26/the-13-count...

Houdoe,

>--:-)-->

p.s. NL is #9 met 612-1/2 tonnes, waar wordt het opgeslagen ?

[verwijderd] 8 februari 2011 10:02

5

Silver to outperform gold in 2011 - Eric Sprott
Eric Sprott believes that silver is likely to be the investment of the decade and could easily get to $50 per ounce by the end of the 2011
Author: Marc Davis
Posted: Tuesday , 08 Feb 2011

VANCOUVER B.C. (WWW.BNWNEWS.CA ) -
Silver promises to become the next big buzzword among investors in 2011 and beyond, according to one of the investment industry's most prescient and successful experts on precious metals.
Eric Sprott is the founder of the Toronto-based investment firm, Sprott Asset Management LP. His renowned hedge fund, Sprott Hedge Fund LP, is heavily weighted in precious metals and has generated an estimated 23% annualized return over the past decade. Other similarly oriented funds under his stewardship have also been stellar performers in recent years.
He's now so bullish on silver that he launched the $575 million Sprott Physical Silver Trust in November of last year as he believes that: "Silver will be the investment of the decade."
"I think that silver could easily get to $50 this year," he tells BNWnews.ca.
This all bodes especially well for publicly traded companies that are already mining silver, he says. Likewise for ones that are developing primary silver deposits or gold deposits with plenty of silver as a byproduct.
"If the price of silver continues to go up, silver stocks are going to perform even better," Sprott adds.
Meanwhile, Sprott says the big catalyst for surging silver prices in the coming years will be exponentially increasing investment demand, which is already beginning to overwhelm existing silver supplies. The mining industry only produces around 800 tonnes of silver per annum. This is a relatively inelastic supply, regardless of silver prices, he adds.
As household investors are becoming increasingly jittery about the debasement of the U.S. dollar and other major currencies, they are loading up in record numbers on silver bars, coins and silver-denominated exchange traded funds, Sprott says.
However, there's also a quantum shift in investment demand taking place among big players in the precious metals market, including India (which is aiming to increase its imports by about 77 million ounces per annum), and of course China.
"China's net imports of silver were 112 million ounces last year. In 2005, they were net exporters of 100 million ounces," he says.
"That's a 200 million ounce shift in an 800 million ounce annual market that seldom ever grows because production hardly ever goes up. So where's it all going to come from? We don't know."
In fact, silver promises to outshine gold over the coming years, Sprott says. "Silver is the poor man's gold. Gold has had a great run for the past 11 years. But I absolutely believe that silver will outperform gold this year. Currently, there's more investment dollars going into silver than into gold."
Such a game-changing scenario should recalibrate the gold to silver pricing ratio in silver's favor, thereby eventually restoring it to its traditional level of about 16 to 1, he says. "It's the easiest call of all time."
"Silver as a currency always traded in a ratio of around 16 to 1 compared to gold, when it was a currency in the U.S. and the U.K. The current ratio is 48 to 1. If we go back to a 16 to 1 ratio, the implied price for silver would be $85.62 (per ounce)." he adds.
"On that basis, if gold goes to $1,600, then that would value silver at $100. And we certainly think that gold is going to $1,600. In fact, I'm willing to bet that this ratio will overshoot on the downside. It might even get to 10 to one."
The only reason why silver is still trading at a 48 to 1 ratio to bullion's spot price is that its price is being "manipulated" by big banks, Sprott says. That's because they don't want precious metals to become a popular alternative currency to Fiat money (currencies that are not backed by hard assets).
"Then there's also a huge short position out there on silver," he adds.
But time is on silver's side, he says, as the sovereignty debt crisis deepens in Europe and a continued policy of quantitative easing in the U.S. continues to undermine the value of the greenback.

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 8 februari 2011 23:17

5

Gold* (GC : NASDAQ : US$1351.30), Net Change: 2.30, % Change: 0.17%

Let's Get Physical, Physical. In his monthly Markets at a Glance, Eric Sprott says Asian demand for physical gold and silver is akin to a tsunami. We all know how the Chinese and Indians have never trusted paper investments as a store of value – that’s nothing new. Sprott highlights how demand for gold and silver is literally exploding in Asia, and it’s creating shortages of physical bullion around the world. China is buying so much gold for investment purposes that it now threatens to supersede India as the world’s largest gold consumer. Chinese demand in 2010 is expected to reach approximately 600 tonnes, just behind India’s 800 tonnes. Sprott highlights new investment products like gold accumulation plans which make gold more convenient to purchase in China. On April 1, 2010, the World Gold Council and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) announced a strategic partnership, introducing a completely new investment product for Chinese investors: The ICBC Gold Accumulation Plan (ICBC GAP). ICBC GAP allows investors in mainland China to accumulate gold through a daily dollar averaging program. The minimum investment required is either 200 RMB per month or 1 gram of gold per day (equivalent to approximately US$42). According to Sprott, some one million accounts have already been opened since the program launched on April 1, resulting in the purchase of over 10 tonnes of gold thus far. The ICBC GAP plan was taken up by a mere 20% of total depositors at ICBC, and was only launched in select Chinese cities during the test phase. The ICBC bank is the largest consumer bank on the planet with roughly 212 million accounts. You don't have to be smarter than a fifth grader to figure out how large a buy program could get just at ICBC bank alone. What if ICBC GAP plan was expanded to the next four largest Chinese banks? What if the buy program were extended to other large gold consuming countries such as India, Russia or Turkey? The implications of this demand for the gold market could truly be akin to a tsunami

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 16 februari 2011 14:55

4

Love to push gold up $200, fear needed for anything higher - Holmes
Strong jewellery demand from Asia is likely to push gold up $200 in a normal fashion but, for significantly higher move, more QE would have to take place
Author: Geoff Candy
Posted: Wednesday , 16 Feb 2011

JOHANNESBURG -
While fear did much of the ruling during the course of January, it is the love trade that investors should be paying attention to.
This is the view of Frank Holmes, CEO at US Global Investors, speaking on Mineweb.com's Gold Weeklyt podcast, Holmes explained that despite a 30% rise in the gold price during 2010, jewellery demand (what he calls the love trade) was remarkably strong in both India and China.
"What's really important," he says, is "that in China, 20 million migrant workers saw their income rise 24% - you didn't see that happen in Europe or in America.
That's the big issue in America, there is still no job creation for the typical construction migrant worker. But in China, they saw a 24% increase - and what do they do for the ones they love? They buy gold."
He adds, "Now there's a bank that allows you to buy a gram of gold every week on a silver dollar cost average programme, and they have 20 million customers. Just start putting that on the scale over time - it's important not to dismiss the love trade and put that in context for the total demand side equation for gold."
Asked about concerns around recent monetary policy in China and, the potential that recent interest rate hikes could see a decline in interest in gold, Holmes said that he did not believe this would be a significant issue.
"Money supply is still growing rapidly in China. It's off its 30% year-on-year growth rates but it's still very healthy and what people fail to recognise is that China has built more underground subways in 10 years than London has built in 150 years. They're now building subways throughout China... underground means fast transportation of people.
Car sales are still massively robust and those cars are paid with cash - there's not big lending. Sixty percent of housing is cash - not like in Europe, not like in the US where its massively leveraged and that's where the problems came from - so things are pretty good on a macro scale"
As a result of this and the expectation of continued deficit spending in the US, Holmes believes that it will be easy fore gold to rise $200 from current levels.
But, he cautions, a rise to $1,700 would be the equivalent of what happened in 2010 and, if that is to take place the world will need to see, continued economic growth in both China and India.
"For gold to go up $400 or $500/oz, you'd have to also have more QE2 - so it's being extended - those two factors would take gold to higher price levels. But it would be just normal for gold to slowly appreciate - as a laggard. It got so much attention last year, but palladium was a far better performer - platinum, copper - so there's too much focus on gold on a relative basis whereas there's been much more opportunity in these other commodities," he adds.

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 21 februari 2011 14:11

3

Gold Gains on Middle East Unrest, Inflation; Silver Advances
By Nicholas Larkin and Kim Kyoungwha - Feb 21, 2011
Gold climbed above $1,400 an ounce to the highest price in almost seven weeks in London as unrest in the Middle East and concern inflation will quicken boosted demand. Silver reached a 30-year high and palladium advanced.

Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam Qaddafi called on protesters to engage in dialogue or face a civil war that risks “hundreds of thousands of dead.” In the latest step to curb inflation, China’s central bank said Feb. 18 it would raise reserve requirements for lenders as of Feb. 24 after boosting interest rates earlier this month.

“The mix of Middle Eastern jitters and inflation concerns continues to create a favorable price environment for the precious metals, particularly gold and silver,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said in a report.

Immediate-delivery bullion added as much as $14.22, or 1 percent, to $1,403.75 an ounce, the highest price since Jan. 4, and was at $1,402.80 at 11:52 a.m. in London. Prices gained for a sixth day, the longest streak since August. The metal for April delivery was 1.1 percent higher at $1,403.30 on the Comex in New York.

Silver for immediate delivery gained as much as 2.7 percent to $33.5175 an ounce, the highest price since March 1980.

Bullion rose to $1,399.50 an ounce in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,383.50 at the afternoon fixing on Feb. 18.

Anti-Government

Gold reached a record $1,431.25 an ounce on Dec. 7. Concern about rising inflation and currency debasement drove prices up 30 percent last year for a 10th annual gain. Rising food and commodity prices have contributed to uprisings in the Middle East.

Libyan security forces yesterday attacked anti-government protesters in Benghazi, the nation’s second-largest city. The North African country has become the focal point of region-wide protests ignited by the ouster of Tunisia’s president last month and energized by the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Feb. 11. Violence has also flared in Yemen, Djibouti and Bahrain.

“Gold, silver, platinum and palladium are all riding on investor interest against the backdrop of intensifying violence in the Middle East,” said Hwang Il Doo, Seoul-based senior trader with KEB Futures Co. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold rising above $1,500 in the coming month.”

Silver advanced to its most expensive level versus gold in 13 years. An ounce of gold bought as little as 41.76 ounces of silver today, the lowest amount since February 1998. Silver has more than doubled in the past year and was last up 2.6 percent at $33.4875 an ounce.

Palladium for immediate delivery in London rose 1 percent to $859.75 an ounce after reaching $861.50, the highest level since February 2001. Platinum was 0.7 percent higher at $1,847.88 an ounce. Comex floor trading in New York is closed today for Presidents’ Day.

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 8 maart 2011 17:33

2

Gold (GOLDC : COMEX : US$1434.50), Net Change: 5.90, % Change: 0.41% Silver (SI : COMEX : US$36.01), Net Change: 0.40, % Change: 1.12%
"Crack that whip, give the past a slip, step on a crack, break your momma's back...Whip it good." – Devo. Not since the days of Devo's silver suits has the gold/silver ratio been this low – below 40 for the first time since the 1980's. Silver has outperformed gold year-to-date, with the spot silver price up roughly 15% versus a materially unchanged gold price. Silver’s outperformance versus gold began in September 2010 (silver +77% vs. gold +14%). This can be partly explained by increased investment demand over this period (SPDR ETF silver holdings up 17% vs. gold holdings down 7%) and silver’s strong industrial component. The gold/silver ratio has steadily declined from the 65 level last August to a new 25-year low below 40 yesterday. This is well below the historical average of approximately 55 since the elimination of the Bretton Woods system in August 1971. In the absence of a major structural change in the silver market, some anticipate a correction in spot silver prices over the next 12 months. This is based on the view that the gold/silver ratio is currently at unsustainable levels and the expectation of a reversion in the ratio to closer to 50 over the next 12 months. Over the longer term, some call for a mean reversion to the historical average of 55. What's a potential wild card that could put a wrench into this thesis? The Chinese are in the game. Recently, according to Reuters, Zhou Ming, deputy head of ICBC's precious metals department, reported that the bank had sold about seven tonnes of physical gold in January this year, nearly half the 15 tonnes of bullion sold in the whole of 2010. Zhou said, "We are seeing explosive demand for gold. As Chinese get wealthy, they look to diversify their investments and gold stands out as a good hedge against inflation...Unlike the property market, investment in the gold sector is something the government is encouraging." Zhou also said there was "voracious" demand for silver, with the bank selling about 13 tonnes of physical silver in January alone, compared with 33 tonnes in the whole of 2010.

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars

[verwijderd] 22 maart 2011 14:32

2

Ron Paul sets congressional hearing on U.S. Mint gold, silver, pgm bullion programs
U.S. gold standard advocate Ron Paul is at the helm of a upcoming congressional subcommittee hearing that will examine one of his favorite topics.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Tuesday , 22 Mar 2011

RENO, NV -
Longtime gold standard advocate, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has scheduled an April 1 hearing of his U.S. House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy to examine the bullion programs at the U.S. Mint.
Last week Paul introduced H.R. 1098, the Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011, that would repeal legal tender laws in order to prohibit taxation on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium bullion. The bill has been referred to the House Committees on Financial Services, Ways and Means, and Judiciary.
Paul is a strong advocate of currency backed by precious metals. Peter Schroeder, a reporter for The Hill, recently suggested that he anticipates that Paul will use the bullion hearing to further promote his cause.
Last July, Mineweb reported that Paul opposes the Mint's effort to gain greater power in determining the metals composition of circulating coinage.
The Mint is now setting the stage for a major overhaul of the metals composition of coins and how the Mint is going to manufacture them. The Coin Modernization, Oversight and Continuity Act of 2010 gives the Mint greater flexibility in meeting the demand for bullion coins as well as meeting the demand for gold and silver numismatic items.
Previously, Congress regulated the qualities and quantities of U.S. bullion coins.

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars

[verwijderd] 22 maart 2011 21:03

0

kaddafi denkt er net zo over dat goud een goede belegging is. De westen heeft ondanks de goede bedoelingen (het uit de wegruimen van deze crimineel) een enorme denkfout in het schaakspel gemaakt. Goede nieuws is dat er meer goud op de markt komt. Het slecht nieuws is dat deze 'oorlog' nog lang zal duren en heel veel levens zal kosten.

[verwijderd] 20 april 2011 15:49

0

Where does gold go from here?
A cross section of reactions to gold's extended, record-breaking run that pushed prices of the yellow metal through the psychological $1,500 level
Posted: Wednesday , 20 Apr 2011

SINGAPORE (REUTERS) -
Spot gold roared to an all-time high above $1,500 an ounce on Wednesday as a weaker dollar renewed interest in commodities, while concerns about a sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone lifted the metal's safe-haven appeal.
Here are reactions to bullion's fourth consecutive day of breaking records:
GNANASEKAR THIAGARAJAN, COMMTRENDZ RESEARCH
"It's not just one or two factors at play, there are plenty of them fuelling this safe-haven buying. Gold would continue to rise to $1,520/1,525 and could face technical resistance there. Profit-booking is much needed now given the one-way rally that gold has seen."
ANSHUMAN SHARMA, QUANT COMMODITIES
"After gold crossed $1,485, the markets looked set to try $1,500 and we saw that level today. At the moment it looks like this rally is not over. We will have to see as it is an unexplored area and will depend on whether traders decide to book profits or hold their positions.
"Indian demand should continue as people expect the prices to move higher from here."
TETSU EMORI, ASTMAX CO
"Investors are focussing on gold's nature as a safe asset and its universality, that it can be cashed anywhere at any time.
"Given that few countries in the world appear to be in a sound fiscal state nowadays, the focus is all the more put on safety, as reflected in the strength in gold not only in dollar but non-dollar currencies.
"Market price levels are less relevant now than in the past as investors are looking for what asset is relatively better than others, rather than looking at absolute levels and assessing whether their value is appropriate or not. The market has been rising steadily at a very good pace, neither overshooting nor plunging.
"Speculative positions are not as significant a factor as before, as ETFs are playing a much greater role, reflecting market consensus. Gold has further scope for an upside."
DICK POON, HERAEUS
"There's not much profit taking right now. Buying is ongoing, which seems to come from investors. We don't see much selling back in the (physical) market."
JONATHAN BARRATT, COMMODITY BROKING SERVICES
"In a word, sensational. Everything's feeding into this -- sovereign debt, the weaker dollar, inflation and investment demand. It is unusual to do it in Asian time. It goes to show how much appetite there is in Asia for bullion.
"We often see a $20 rally after breaking a big number, then a pullback. We will see what Europe and United States do with this -- $1,510 or $1,520 look possible, but prices are starting to look a little stretched up here."
MASAYO KONDO, COMMODITY INTELLIGENCE LTD
"In the near term, to the end of April, gold is expected to undergo a correction to as low as $1,400. Speculative positions have been accumulating, so funds are likely to unwind their longs for now as a key milestone of $1,500 is reached.
"Over the long term, gold will be underpinned by concerns about sovereign debt in Europe, not in the U.S., as they await the result of the stress test on banks in such countries as Portugal, Spain and Greece at the end of June. Concerns about banks' health could prompt investors to seek alternative investment into gold.
"Chinese demand may wane as the government keeps raising interest rates, luring money away from gold, which doesn't yield interest. Gold is solid, but its upside will be limited, with the core around $1,500."
DARREN HEATHCOTE, INVESTEC AUSTRALIA
"There's not a great deal of reasons to sell it at the moment, apart from concerns that there are a lot of longs in the market and there is a risk of sell-off at some point.
"The market is so fickle at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw a sell-off. For the short term, it will play with current level and wait for direction."
LI NING, SHANGHAI CIFCO FUTURES
"We've seen gold rally rapidly in the short term, and may see some small correction coming. But the 10-day moving average around $1,480 should be a strong support level. Investors are still very worried about rising inflation globally, even as some governments have taken various measures to fight rising prices.
"Concerns about debt problems in developed economies heightened after Standard & Poor's threatened to downgrade the U.S. credit rating. As a result, gold will remain well supported in the medium term as investors seek a safe haven to park their value. In the second quarter gold may test $1,550, but beyond this quarter changes in monetary policies will lead to uncertainties in prices."
YINGXI YU, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
"The environment does seem to have changed to a more gold-positive one, on the back of S&P threatening to downgrade the U.S. credit rating.
"Already we see increasing investor interest in gold, backed by a lot of uncertainties in what's happening in the North Africa and Middle East region, Japan's earthquake and its ultimate impact on the Japanese economy as well as increased risk to global economy arising from policy decisions as well as high oil prices.
"The investment sentiment will remain favourable. That should keep gold well supported at high levels. We always look at a pretty high level of speculative lengths, relatively to overall open interest, anyway.
"It doesn't mean prices will have to sell off. Sell-off is not a direct consequence of high speculative net lengths.
"It does suggest that when the sentiment turns, prices can correct quickly. But at the moment, it does seem like the external environment should stay pretty good."
(Reporting by Rujun Shen, Nicholas Trevethan, Chikako Mogi, Lewa Pardomuan and Siddesh Mayanker; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 4 mei 2011 13:08

1

Mexican central bank buys 100 tonnes of gold

By By Jack Farchy in London
Published: May 4 2011 11:35 | Last updated: May 4 2011 11:35
The central bank of Mexico bought nearly 100 tonnes of gold in February and March, the latest emerging market country to turn to bullion as a means of diversifying away from the faltering dollar.

The purchase, reported on the Bank of Mexico’s website in the International Monetary Fund’s statistics on international reserves, is one of the largest gold purchases by a central bank in recent history. The gold, worth $4.6bn at current prices, is equivalent to about 3.5 per cent of annual mined output.

Central banks became net buyers of gold last year after two decades of heavy selling, a dramatic reversal that has helped propel the price of bullion to a series of record highs.

On Tuesday, gold was trading at $1,535 a troy ounce, down from the nominal record of $1,575.79 touched on Monday.

Mexico follows other booming emerging market economies, including China, India and Russia, which have all made large additions to their gold reserves in recent years.

Matthew Turner, precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi, the Japanese trading house, said the purchase “seems to confirm there’s an appetite now among emerging economies with large forex reserves to add to their gold reserves. Gold is seen as one way in which to diversify away from the dollar- or euro-denominated assets.”

The dollar has plunged 10 per cent since January against the world’s major currencies and is trading near an all-time low. Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, has suggested that gold should form part of a new international monetary system.

China announced in 2009 that it had bought 454 tonnes of gold over the previous six years; India bought 200 tonnes of gold directly from the International Monetary Fund in October 2009; and Russia has bought just less than 400 tonnes on the open market over the past five years.

However Mexico’s buying in February and March, which amounted to 93.3 tonnes of gold, is one of the most rapid programmes of accumulation on record. Apart from India’s off-market purchase in 2009, the 78.5 tonnes bought in March is the largest monthly purchase by a central bank in at least a decade, according to data from the World Gold Council.

The Bank of Mexico could not be reached for comment on Wednesday morning

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

I

[verwijderd] 11 mei 2011 15:11

0

BREAKING News

Forbes Predicts U.S. Gold Standard Within 5 Years
by Paul Dykewicz (more by this author)
Posted 05/11/2011 ET

A return to the gold standard by the United States within the next five years now seems likely, because that move would help the nation solve a variety of economic, fiscal, and monetary ills, Steve Forbes predicted during an exclusive interview this week with HUMAN EVENTS.

“What seems astonishing today could become conventional wisdom in a short period of time,” Forbes said.

Such a move would help to stabilize the value of the dollar, restore confidence among foreign investors in U.S. government bonds, and discourage reckless federal spending, the media mogul and former presidential candidate said. The United States used gold as the basis for valuing the U.S. dollar successfully for roughly 180 years before President Richard Nixon embarked upon an experiment to end the practice in the 1970s that has contributed to a number of woes that the country is suffering from now, Forbes added.

If the gold standard had been in place in recent years, the value of the U.S. dollar would not have weakened as it has and excessive federal spending would have been curbed, Forbes told HUMAN EVENTS. The constantly changing value of the U.S. dollar leads to marketplace uncertainty and consequently spurs speculation in commodity investing as a hedge against inflation.

The only probable 2012 U.S. presidential candidate who has championed a return to the gold standard so far is Rep. Ron Paul (R.-Tex.). But the idea “makes too much sense” not to gain popularity as the U.S. economy struggles to create jobs, recover from a housing bubble induced by the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policies, stop rising gasoline prices, and restore fiscal responsibility to U.S. government’s budget, Forbes insisted.

With a stable currency, it is “much harder” for governments to borrow excessively, Forbes said. Without lax Federal Reserve System monetary policies that led to the printing of too much money, the housing bubble would not have been nearly as severe, he added.

“When it comes to exchange rates and monetary policy, people often don’t grasp” what is at stake for the economy, Forbes said. By restoring the gold standard, the United States would shift away from “less responsible policies” and toward a stronger dollar and a stronger America, he said. “If the dollar was as good as gold, other countries would want to buy it.”

An encouraging sign for Forbes is that key lawmakers besides Rep. Paul are recognizing that the Fed is straying well beyond its intended role of promoting stable prices and full employment with its monetary policies.

Forbes cited Rep. Paul Ryan (R.-Wis.), who, he believes, understands monetary policy better than most lawmakers and has shown a willingness to ask tough but necessary questions. For example, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared before the House Budget Committee in February, Ryan, who chairs the panel, asked Bernanke bluntly how many jobs the Fed’s quantitative-easing program had helped to create.

Politicians need to “get over” the notion that the Fed can guide the economy with monetary policy. The Fed is like a “bull in a China shop," Forbes said. “It can’t help but knock things down.”

“People know that something is wrong with the dollar," Forbes concluded. "You cannot trash your money without repercussions.”

Paul Dykewicz is the editorial director of the Financial Publications Group at Eagle Publishing Inc., www.eaglepub.com, of Washington, D.C. Eagle publishes two free, e-letters, five weekly trading services and four monthly investment newsletters, Forecasts & Strategies, Successful Investing, High Monthly Income and Global Stock Investor.

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 12 mei 2011 20:17

0

Gold (GC : NASDAQ : US$1501.30), Net Change: -15.60, % Change: -1.03%, Volume: 188,557
Up. The Financial Post highlighted Wednesday that Peter Munk, Chairman and Founder of Barrick Gold (ABX), does not consider himself a gold bug, and is always reluctant to forecast prices. However, given his recent comments, it is clear he still thinks gold is heading in one direction: up. While speaking at the Bloomberg Canada Economic Summit, Munk said the world still has not found solutions to its major global crises, leaving more uncertainty for the future. For example, he cited the bailouts of debt-laden European countries as “Band-Aid” solutions. The Financial Post noted that while Munk is certainly bullish on gold, other industry leaders are much more outspoken. Also speaking at the conference, Goldcorp's (G) Chairman Ian Telfer said gold will reach $2,000 an ounce by the end of the year. Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank’s managing director for crosscommodity trading said in an interview that, “I’m bullish on gold despite its current levels.” Adding, “It could reach $2,000 an ounce in the next eight months.

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 25 mei 2011 00:31

0

Gold (GC : NASDAQ : US$1513.00), Net Change: 20.60, % Change: 1.38%
SPDR Gold ETF (GLD : NYSE : US$147.49), Net Change: 1.84, % Change: 1.26%, Volume: 19,436,542
The eight-hundred-pound gorilla has found a taste for gold. According to a Wall Street Journal article Chinese investors have overtaken Indian buyers as the world’s largest purchaser of gold. In its quarterly report, the World Council said China's investment demand for gold more than doubled to 90.9 metric tonnes in the first three months of the year, outpacing India's rise to 85.6 tonnes. China now accounts for 25% of gold investment demand, compared with India's 23%. Historically, India has taken the top spot as largest investment market for gold. In 2007, just before investing in gold began to take off globally, India's physical gold demand accounted for 61% of the world's total. China's was just 9%. "I think people will be surprised by the strength in the Chinese demand, but we think this is a trend that is set to continue," said Eily Ong, an investment research
manager at the gold council. The rise to the top spot on the podium is believed to be driven by China’s growing middle class.
Aside from having more money, Chinese investors are also focused on using gold as a protection against deepening inflation in China. Additionally, what could be even more important (and rarely covered) is the fact that gold ownership by the Chinese public remains tiny. Especially when compared to other Asian countries such as Vietnam and India. Given that China was banned from owning gold bullion from 1950 to 2003 means that the per capita consumption of over 1.3 billion people is rising from a tiny base. This voracious appetite shown by Chinese buyers prompted the gold council to ramp up its forecast for the
nation's demand. "In March 2010, we predicted that gold demand in China would double by 2020; however, we believe that this doubling may in fact be achieved sooner," said Albert Cheng, the World Gold Council's managing director for the Far East. The world's largest gold producer, China churned out 350.9 tonnes in 2010, a big number, but not enough to satisfy the 800 lbs gorilla’s appetite. Total demand, including bullion, jewellery and technology uses, has grown to more than 700 tonnes, according to the gold council's report. As demand continues to outpace supply, analysts expect China to import even more bullion. And don’t forget the wild card. The latest report covers only private-sector demand, which raises the question - how much gold China has been adding to its foreign reserves. The People’s Bank of China’s gold reserves are very small when
compared to those of the U.S. and indebted European nations. According to the article, Chinese demand alone likely puts a floor under the gold market at $1,450/oz. Further, the potential for gold to continue to rise to inflation adjusted high of $2,400/oz certainly seems plausible given Chinese and Asian demand alone for gold bullion

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 25 mei 2011 01:02

0

Zelden zo'n mooi technisch plaatje gezien als op de goudgrafiek in dollars.

Echt om te smullen.

Of je nu de dag- of de weekgrafiek bekijkt
Het is allemaal even fraai.

Groet.

[verwijderd] 25 mei 2011 01:27

0

Hmm als China al die dollars goud weer gaat omzetten hun eigen munt.
is ook dat hoop velies.

Effe kijken wat er beurt .

Pijpje rooken met de Euro.

[verwijderd] 25 mei 2011 01:36

0

quote:
zoezen schreef op 25 mei 2011 01:27:
Hmm als China al die dollars goud weer gaat omzetten hun eigen munt.
is ook dat hoop velies.

Effe kijken wat er beurt .

Pijpje rooken met de Euro.

Dollars omzetten in goud is geen probleem.
Goud omzetten in de eigen munt heeft geen zin.
Die eigen munt hoef je immers niet met goud te creeren.
Die maak je gewoon aan.
Dat gaat niet op voor goud. Dat maak je niet aan.
Eerste les economie: wat schaarser wordt, wordt meer waard.
Geld kan onbeperkt bijgemaakt worden. Goud niet.

Groet.

[verwijderd] 15 juni 2011 13:39

0

Gold to Reach $5,000 Due to Supply Shortage: Report

Posted By: John Melloy | Executive Producer, Fast Money
CNBC.com
| 14 Jun 2011 | 02:16 PM ET
An exhaustive report by Standard Chartered predicts that gold will more than triple to $5,000 an ounce because of a lack of supply, not just because of a surge in demand that most bullion bugs cite in their bullish calls.

“There are very few large gold mines set to commence operation in the next five years,” said Standard’s analyst Yan Chen in a report Monday. “The limited new supply comes at a time when central banks have turned from being net sellers to significant net buyers of gold. The result, in our view, will be a gold market in deficit, even assuming flat growth in demand. With the supply-demand balance so out of kilter, we see the gold price potentially going to US$5,000/oz.”

The London-based firm is among the first to focus on the supply-side of the gold equation amid the many bullish forecasts out there on the metal. After analyzing 345 gold mines and 30 copper/base metal gold mines around the globe, the team estimates annual gold production will be just 3.6 percent over the next five years.

“They make a pretty compelling argument, especially when it comes to mine supply,” said Brian Kelly, head of Brian Kelly Capital and a ‘Fast Money’ trader. “Most analysis focuses on demand from China and India, which of course can disappear as quickly as it materialized.”

But that’s unlikely to happen over the next five years as central banks look to further diversify their holdings of U.S. dollars and as emerging countries buy more gold in the aftermath of the global paper currency crisis.

“Currently, only 1.8 percent of China’s foreign exchange reserves is in gold,” wrote Chen and the Standard team in the 68-page report. “If the country were to bring this proportion in line with the global average of 11 percent, it would have to buy 6,000 more tonnes of gold, equivalent to more than 2 years of gold production.”

The bold call is among the most bullish out there. In a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch survey of global money managers released Tuesday, just about a third of money managers felt gold was overvalued. However, that is the highest reading in that survey in more than a year.

Standard Chartered recommends that clients buy shares of smaller gold miners to get the most upside from its prediction but also said clients could buy physical gold and gold exchange-traded funds.

For the best market insight, catch 'Fast Money' each night at 5pm ET, and the ‘Halftime Report’ each afternoon at 12:30 ET on CNBC.

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

[verwijderd] 21 juni 2011 16:32

0

41% Of Belgian Central Bank Gold Has Been Lent Out
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/20/2011 16:10 -0400

Belgium

Some very disturbing revelations from CLSA's Chris Wood who in his latest Greed and Fear note discusses an event that may be all to prevalent within the central banking community: the less than overt lending out of central bank gold to "other entities" in return for picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. In this case, the central bank of governmentless Belgium, which had 41% of its gold out at the end of 2010 on loan. Naturally, the lent out gold is being used by some other key entity, potentially to mask its own inventory deficit, in exchange for the paltry sum of 0.3% on the total loan. Wood's conclusion: "This is a reminder that the paper gold market is significantly larger than the physical market. Just like a run on a bank in a fractional banking system, GREED & fear suspects it will be very hard to settle all the paper claims to gold physically in a real scramble for the metal. This is why in a parabolic spike physical gold is likely to trade at a significant premium to paper claims." We couldn't have said it better ourselves.

From CLSA's Greed and Fear:

Belgian central bank Vice Governor Francoise Masai reportedly told shareholders that about 41% of the central bank’s 216 metric tons of gold was on loan at the end of last year, and that the central bank earned a 0.3% return on its loans of physical gold to commercial banks last year. There are two points to note about this. The first is the puny annualised return earned on the gold leasing market. The second is the significant percentage of the central bank’s gold lent out. This is a reminder that the paper gold market is significantly larger than the physical market. Just like a run on a bank in a fractional banking system, GREED & fear suspects it will be very hard to settle all the paper claims to gold physically in a real scramble for the metal. This is why in a parabolic spike physical gold is likely to trade at a significant premium to paper claims. On this point GREED & fear should make it clear that the 25% of the global portfolio for a US dollar-denominated pension fund allocated to gold bullion is in physical gold.

Meanwhile, it is an interesting note that more than a dozen state legislators in America have now seen bills introduced that would make gold and silver coins legal tender in the respective states. Thus, gold and silver coins minted by the US government are now considered legal tender in Utah. Much of this activism is coming from Tea Party supporters. Financial sophisticates will scoff. But to GREED & fear it is a healthy sign that some people in America are thinking. For more on this popular movement to return to the monetary role of gold read an article published last week by the Los Angeles Times (“Pushing for a return to the gold standard”, 3 June 2011 by Nathaniel Popper).

If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?

AEX 905,63 +7,66 +0,85% 14 mrt


Germany40^	23.081,70	+0,41%
BEL 20	4.410,12	+1,05%
Europe50^	5.420,69	+0,31%
US30^	41.420,70	0,00%
Nasd100^	19.651,10	0,00%
US500^	5.623,92	0,00%
Japan225^	37.519,50	0,00%
Gold spot	2.991,78	+0,24%
EUR/USD	1,0881	-0,02%
WTI	67,14	0,00%

AZERION	+9,48%
Sif Holding	+6,14%
RANDSTAD NV	+4,47%
Corbion	+4,46%
ALLFUNDS GROUP	+4,39%

UMG	-8,75%
Pharming	-6,04%
OCI	-2,89%
EBUSCO HOLDING	-2,43%
Ahold Delhaize	-0,68%

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