Eurobench.com

voda 6 november 2014 17:07

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Iron ore and rebar futures continue to slip in China

Reuters reported iron ore futures in China and Singapore extended losses to a fourth session on Wednesday, caught in a broad-based commodities selloff, with buying interest for physical iron ore cargoes among Chinese steel mills staying lean.

Iron ore for May delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 1.5 percent to end at CNY 510 a tonne

On the Singapore Exchange, the December iron ore contract slipped 0.3 percent to USD 76.74 a tonne.

Traders said that the closure of several steel mills near the capital Beijing for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting has also limited buying activity for spot cargoes. The mills, including those in top producing Hebei province have been shut to cut smog before leaders, including US President Mr Barack Obama, attend the November 5th to 11th 2014 APEC summit. A Hong Kong based iron ore trader said that "They're not all gone, the mills, but the interest is towards mainstream cargoes and they want to buy cheap given there's a lot of supply around referring to cargoes from top suppliers Australia and Brazil. Obviously, traders' margins have gone down. You can't make USD 10 out of every cargo now."

There was more evidence of weakness in China's economy on Wednesday as growth in its services sector slowed to a three-month low in October

The most traded May rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1.5 percent to close at CNY 2,513 a tonne

Source – Reuters

voda 6 november 2014 17:08

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Anglo sees largest project making money in iron ore glut

Bloomberg reported that Anglo American Plc, which last month started iron ore shipments from the Minas Rio project in Brazil, expects the USD 8.8 billion venture to be profitable even as the steel making ingredient trades near five year lows.

Mr Paulo Castellari, CEO of Anglo’s iron ore unit in Brazil said that “Minas Rio, Anglo’s largest project, has low production costs that allow it to withstand a decline in iron ore prices. While the company will take time to recover the investment, the project will be a big cash generator for Anglo.”

Mr Castellari said that “With prices going up or down, we will continue generating value, generating profits. We are very well positioned in the market as a whole. There are other producers with much higher costs.”

Mr Castellari said that “The venture has an operating cost of USD 33 to USD 35 a so called wet ton before shipping expenses. The company targets production of 11 million to 14 million tons next year. Iron ore continues to be a very important commodity for the development of this world. We will have a difficult period for prices in the next year. We don’t see any chance of hitting the levels of two years ago.”

On Oct. 25, Anglo shipped a cargo with more than 80,000 tonnes from the Acu port in Rio de Janeiro to customers in China, marking the start of the Minas Rio project about four years later than initially scheduled. The project’s start, which faced delays and cost overruns since it was bought in 2008, coincides with a slump in iron ore prices as Australian and Brazilian producers expand capacity and demand from China, the biggest user, stalls.

Minas Rio includes a mine, processing plant and a 529 kilometer pipeline to carry slurry to a dedicated iron ore terminal at the Acu Port in Rio state.

Anglo, based in London, boosted the cost of developing Minas Rio to USD 8.8 billion from an original estimate of USD 2.6 billion after facing permit delays and project design changes. It wrote down USD 4 billion of the asset’s value in 2013.

Source – Bloomberg

voda 6 november 2014 17:09

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Kumba profit to decline at least 20pct on lower iron ore prices

Bloomberg reported that Kumba Iron Ore Limited, which owns Africa’s largest mine for the steelmaking ingredient, full year profit will drop at least 20% after prices declined.

The Pretoria based unit of Anglo American Plc said that both headline and basic earnings will be at least ZAR 3.09 billion lower in the year ended December 31 from 12 months earlier. The decrease in earnings is largely attributable to a significant decrease in export iron ore prices, partially offset by a weaker exchange rate during the period.

According to Macquarie Group Limited, iron ore tumbled 42% this year after companies including Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA raised low cost output in Australia and Brazil, spurring a global glut just as economic growth in China slowed. The market is in the midst of a transition without precedent in recent commodity history as supply jumps and higher cost mines shut.

Source – Bloomberg

voda 6 november 2014 17:12

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AK Steel announces financial results for Q3 of 2014

AK Steel announced its financial results for the Q3 of 2014.

Q3 2014 Performance Summary;
1. Completed the acquisition of Severstal Dearborn
2. Shipments of 1,462,900 tonnes
3. Sales of USD 1.59 billion with an average selling price of USD 1,089 per tonne
4. Net loss of USD 7.2 million, or USD 0.05 per diluted share
5. Adjusted net income of USD 16.4 million, or USD 0.12 per diluted share
6. Adjusted EBITDA of USD 100.5 million
7. Ended Q3 with liquidity of USD 912 million.

AK Steel a net loss of USD 7.2 million, or USD 0.05 per diluted share of common stock, for the Q3 of 2014, compared to a net loss of USD 31.7 million, or USD 0.23 per diluted share, for the Q3 of 2013 and a net loss of USD 17.1 million, or USD 0.13 per diluted share, for the Q2 of 2014. The Q3 2014 results reflect one time costs associated with the acquisition of Severstal Dearborn, LLC which the company completed on September 16th 2014.

Excluding acquisition-related expenses totaling USD 23.6 million, or USD 0.17 per diluted share, as discussed below, the company reported adjusted net income of USD 16.4 million, or USD 0.12 per diluted share. The company reported adjusted EBITDA (as defined in the Non GAAP Financial Measures section below) of USD 100.5 million, or USD 69 per tonne, for the Q3 of 2014 compared to adjusted EBITDA of USD 53.5 million, or USD 43 per tonne for the year ago Q3 and adjusted EBITDA of USD 65.5 million, or USD 47 per tonne for the Q2 of 2014.

Net sales for the Q3 of 2014 were USD 1.59 billion on shipments of 1,462,900 tonnes compared to net sales of USD 1.33 billion on shipments of 1,242,400 tonnes for the year ago Q3 and net sales of USD 1.53 billion on shipments of 1,397,500 tonnes for the Q2 of 2014. The increase in shipments in the Q3 of 2014 compared to the year ago period and to the Q2 of 2014 was principally due to shipments from Dearborn Works following the acquisition and higher shipments of carbon steel to the automotive and infrastructure and manufacturing markets.

The company average selling price for the Q3 of 2014 was USD 1,089 per tonne, down slightly from the Q2 of 2014. The minor decrease from the Q2 was due to a change in product mix related to the addition of Dearborn. The company also said its average selling price for the Q3 of 2014 increased 2% from the Q3 of 2013, primarily as a result of higher spot market prices for carbon steel products. Costs of products sold increased in the Q3 of 2014 due to the acquisition of Dearborn and to the continued adverse effects from an unplanned outage at the Ashland Works blast furnace.

During the Q3, the company incurred USD 23.2 million for unplanned outage costs at the Ashland Works blast furnace and for costs related to lower than normal production levels. The company also incurred USD 1.1 million of costs for planned outages during the Q3 of 2014, compared to USD 4.2 million in the year ago Q3 and USD 2.5 million in the Q2 of 2014.

Nine Month Results;
For the first nine months of 2014, the company reported a net loss of USD 110.4 million, or USD 0.79 per diluted share. Excluding acquisition-related expenses totaling USD 24.6 million, or USD 0.18 per diluted share, as discussed below, the company reported an adjusted net loss of USD 85.8 million, or USD 0.61 per diluted share. For the corresponding nine months of 2013, the company reported a net loss of USD 82.0 million, or USD 0.60 per diluted share. Sales for the first nine months of 2014 were USD 4.51 billion compared to sales of USD 4.11 billion in the first nine months of 2013. Shipments for the first nine months of 2014 were 4,122,500 tonnes compared to 3,855,900 tonnes in the first nine months of 2013.

Extreme winter weather conditions in early 2014 resulted in extra costs of approximately USD 45.0 million for the first nine months of 2014. Energy costs were higher in the Q1 of 2014, primarily for electricity and natural gas. The extreme winter weather conditions also affected the delivery of iron ore pellets in the second quarter of 2014, with the company incurring additional costs for transportation and operations. The first nine months of 2014 also included a USD 5.8 million charge relating to a litigation settlement.

Incidents at the company's Ashland Works blast furnace in February and the Q3 of 2014 resulted in unplanned outage costs of approximately USD 41.2 million in the first nine months of 2014. The prior year, in June 2013, an incident at the company's Middletown Works blast furnace resulted in unplanned outage costs of approximately USD 18.0 million in the first nine months of 2013. The company recorded expenses of USD 31.9 million during the first nine months of 2014 for planned outages, compared to expenses of USD 26.8 million during the first nine months of 2013.

Acquisition of Dearborn;
As previously disclosed, on September 16th 2014, AK Steel completed its acquisition of Dearborn, which included the integrated steelmaking assets located in Dearborn, Michigan, the Mountain State Carbon, LLC cokemaking facility located in Follansbee, West Virginia, and interests in joint ventures that process flat rolled steel products. The company's results for the three and nine months ended September 30th 2014, include the effects of the acquisition and Dearborn's operations for the period from the date of acquisition.

voda 6 november 2014 17:12

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Deel 2:

The results for the three and nine months ended September 30th 2014 include net sales and operating profit of USD 90.0 million and USD 2.1 million, respectively, attributable to Dearborn since the acquisition. For the three and nine months ended September 30th 2014, the company incurred acquisition costs of USD 6.3 million and USD 7.3 million, respectively. Acquisition costs are primarily comprised of transaction fees and direct costs, including legal, finance, consulting and other professional fees and are included in selling and administrative expenses.

In addition, the company incurred USD 12.6 million of costs in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2014 for committed bridge financing that was unused. As a result, these costs were expensed in the third quarter and are included in other income (expense). Subsequent to the acquisition, the company incurred severance costs of USD 2.6 million for certain employees of Dearborn, which are included in selling and administrative expenses for the three and nine months ended September 30th 2014, and an income tax charge of USD 2.1 million related to changes in the value of deferred tax assets resulting from the acquisition.

Fourth Quarter 2014 Outlook;
Consistent with its current practice, the company expects to provide detailed guidance for its fourth quarter results in December. However, in advance of that guidance, the company notes that its Q4 results will be affected by a planned outage at the company's Ashland Works blast furnace which began in late October and is expected to last approximately 28 days. That outage previously had been planned to occur in 2015, but has been advanced to fully address operational issues with the Ashland Works blast furnace that began earlier this year. Among other things, the planned outage will include a reline of the blast furnace hearth.

The reduced operations at the Ashland Works blast furnace as a result of the outage will affect the Q4 of 2014 in terms of production, shipments, operating costs and margins. In the Q4 of 2014, the company expects to make capital investments of USD 20.0 million and to incur costs of approximately $30.0 million associated with the planned outage itself and reduced production levels at Ashland Works in the period prior to the outage. The company took steps in advance of the planned outage to minimize the potential impact on its customers, including purchasing additional slabs and building inventory through increased production at other plants.

Mr James L Wainscott, Chairman, President and CEO of AK Steel said that "AK Steel's third quarter financial performance exceeded our expectations. Our continuing trend of posting adjusted net income provides us with a solid foundation for future growth in earnings and cash flow."

Source – Strategic Research Institute

voda 6 november 2014 17:12

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Update on weekly raw steel production in USA

In the week ending November 1st 2014, domestic raw steel production was 1,815,000 net tonnes while the capability utilization rate was 75.5%.

Production was 1,832,000 net tonnes in the week ending November 1st 2013, while the capability utilization then was 76.5%. The current week production represents a 0.9% decrease from the same period in the previous year.

Production for the week ending November 1st 2014 is down 1.1% from the previous week ending October 25th 2014 when production was 1,835,000 net tonnes and the rate of capability utilization was 76.3%.

Adjusted year to date production through November 1st 2014 was 80,713,000 net tonnes, at a capability utilization rate of 77.1%. That is up 0.4% from the 80,354,000 net tonnes during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 77.0%.

Broken down by districts, here's production for the week ending November 1st 2014 in thousands of net tons: North East: 214; Great Lakes: 613; Midwest: 226; Southern: 672 and Western: 90 for a total of 1,815.

The Raw Steel production tonnage provided in this report is estimated. The figures are compiled from weekly production tonnage provided from 50% of the domestic producers combined with monthly production data for the remainder. Therefore, this report should be used primarily to assess production trends.

The AISI production report AIS 7, published monthly and available by subscription, provides a more detailed summary of steel production based on data supplied by companies representing over three quarters of US production capacity.

Source – Strategic Research Institute

voda 6 november 2014 17:14

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Turkish steel exports up 6.1pct in September

According to the data released by the Turkish Iron and Steel Producers' Association, in the January to September period of this year, Turkey's steel exports decreased by 5.3% YoY to 13.61 million tonnes, while the value of these exports totaled USD 11.55 billion, down 2.9% both on YoY basis.

In the given period, Turkey's steel pipe exports totaled 1.5 million tonnes up 1.9% while billet exports decreased by 63% to 501,000 MT long steel exports fell by 0.1% to 8.36 million tonnes and flat steel exports decreased by 0.8% to 1.84 million tonnes all on YoY basis. Meanwhile, in the first nine months of the current year, Turkey's slab exports surged to 25,000 tonnes while almost no slab exports were recorded from Turkey in the same period of 2013.

In September alone, Turkey's steel exports increased by 6.1% YoY to 1.45 million tonnes, while the value of these exports totaled USD 1.3 billion, up 5.2% both on YoY basis. In the given month, Turkey's billet exports decreased by 29.6% to 42,000 MT long steel exports increased by 0.7% to 870,000 MT flat steel exports rose by 55.5% to 183,000 MT and steel pipe exports increased by 15.8% to 177,000 MT all on YoY basis.

Source -Visit www.steelorbis.com for more

voda 6 november 2014 18:26

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Aperam voert winst stevig op

DONDERDAG 6 NOVEMBER 2014, 18:11 uur | 249 keer gelezen

LUXEMBURG (AFN) - Roestvrijstaalfabrikant Aperam heeft de brutowinst (ebitda) in het derde kwartaal ruimschoots weten te verdubbelen ten opzichte van dezelfde periode vorig jaar. Vergeleken met het tweede kwartaal was wel sprake van een afname Dat maakte het bedrijf donderdag bekend.

De ebitda kwam uit op 137 miljoen dollar, tegen 62 miljoen dollar een jaar eerder en 164 miljoen dollar in het tweede kwartaal. Onder de streep bleef 21 miljoen dollar over, na een nettoverlies van 19 miljoen dollar in het derde kwartaal van 2013. De omzet steeg op jaarbasis met ruim 12 procent tot 1,35 miljard dollar.

De verschepingen van roestvrijstaal lagen met 433.000 ton zowel onder het niveau van een jaar eerder (436.000 ton) als onder dat van de voorgaande driemaands periode (466.000 ton). Voor het vierde kwartaal van het jaar verwacht Aperam een afname van de ebitda ten opzichte van de afgelopen periode.

voda 6 november 2014 18:28

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Aperam boekt hogere omzet, buigt verlies om in winst

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Aperam sa (056997440.LU) heeft in het derde kwartaal een hogere omzet geboekt dan een jaar terug en schreef weer zwarte cijfers, onder meer dankzij kostenbesparingen, maar is voorzichtig over het vierde kwartaal gezien de economische omstandigheden.

"Aperam blijft solide resultaten afleveren", zegt chief executive Philippe Darmayan in toelichting op de kwartaalcijfers. "Voor het vierde kwartaal blijven we voorzichtig gezien de algehele economische omgeving. We hebben er echter vertrouwen in dat we de operationele prestaties kunnen blijven verbeteren en onze balans verder kunnen versterken."

De producent van roestvast staal verwacht voor het vierde kwartaal een daling van de winst voor rente, belasting, afschrijvingen en amortisatie (EBITDA) in vergelijking tot het derde kwartaal.

De EBITDA kwam in het derde kwartaal uit op $137 miljoen, ten opzichte van $62 miljoen in dezelfde periode een jaar eerder. Verbeterprogramma The Leadership Journey heeft inmiddels $415 miljoen opgeleverd op EBITDA-niveau sinds begin 2011.

De nettowinst kwam over het derde kwartaal uit op $21 miljoen tegenover een verlies van $19 miljoen een jaar terug. De omzet steeg naar $1,353 miljard van $1,204 miljard in het derde kwartaal van 2013.

Aperam verscheepte de afgelopen drie maanden voor 433.000 ton aan staal, een afname van 7% ten opzichte van het tweede kwartaal, vooral door seizoensinvloeden.

De nettoschuld van het bedrijf daalde tot $591 miljoen per eind september, vergeleken met $663 miljoen drie maanden eerder. Aperam wil de schuld in het vierde kwartaal verder terugbrengen.

Door Ben Zwirs; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; +31-20-5715200; ben.zwirs@wsj.com

[verwijderd] 6 november 2014 19:00

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Een mooi resultaat toch?

Belegger1974 7 november 2014 07:18

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En nu alleen Arcelor nog met zijn cijfers!

voda 7 november 2014 14:45

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Opnieuw sterk kwartaal Aperam, vindt ABN Amro - Market Talk

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De kwartaalcijfers van Aperam (056997440.LU) zijn sterk, stelt ABN Amro, met een EBITDA van $137 miljoen, ruim boven de consensusverwachting van $114 miljoen. Normaliter is het derde kwartaal wat zwakker vanwege de zomerperiode. Ook de operationele kasstroom was sterk met $65 miljoen. ABN Amro verwacht verder dat de EBITA in het vierde kwartaal op $100 miljoen kan komen, wat voor heel 2014 een bedrag van $530 miljoen zou geven, zo'n 6% boven de consensus van de markt. De uitkomst van een onderzoek van de Europese Commissie naar anti-dumping-maatregelen is volgens ABN Amro de grootste katalysator voor het aandeel na het vierde kwartaal. Volgens ABN Amro kan de Commissie invoerrechten gaan heffen op de import van staal tegen dummprijzen, gezien de aanhoudende stijging van de staalimport in Europa. Hierdoor kan de basisprijs voor staal omhoog en dit kan leiden tot sterke winstgroei bij Aperam. ABN heeft een buy advies en een koersdoel van EUR33,00. Omstreeks 13.30 uur noteert het aandeel 3,9% hoger op EUR22,48, terwijl de Midkap met 0,3% stijgt. (MMG)

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com

voda 7 november 2014 14:53

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Aperam resultaten KW3 beter dan verwacht - Market Talk

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Aperam (056997440.LU) heeft wederom boven verwachting gepresteerd in het derde kwartaal volgens analisten van Rabobank. De EBITDA kwam uit op $137 miljoen, waar zij op $115 miljoen hadden gerekend. Zoals ze hadden verwacht voorziet Aperam een lagere EBITDA in het vierde kwartaal, vanwege de dalende nikkelprijs en de voorzichtige marktomstandigheden. De nettoschuld kam met $591 miljoen lager uit dan ze hadden voorspeld en ze verwachten dat het staalbedrijf voor het einde van het jaar de doelstelling van $550 miljoen zal bereiken. Het advies blijft buy met een koersdoel van EUR32. Omstreeks 9.20 uur noteert het aandeel 4,1% hoger op EUR22,53, terwijl de Midkap met 0,6% stijgt. (LDF)

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com

voda 7 november 2014 14:55

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ArcelorMittal: verbeterde staalmarkten compenseren voor lagere ijzerertsprijzen
Door Levien de Feijter

Van DOW JONES NIEUWSDIENST

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)-- ArcelorMittal (MT.AE) heeft een hogere operationele winst behaald dan een jaar eerder en stelt dat verbeterende marktomstandigheden in de staalsector lagere ijzerertsprijzen ruimschoots compenseerden, aldus het bedrijf vrijdag in een persbericht met daarin de cijfers over het derde kwartaal van 2014.

Het grootste staalbedrijf ter wereld herhaalt zijn verwachting voor het volledige jaar waarbij uitgegaan wordt van een operationele winst (EBITDA) van meer dan $7 miljard.

In het afgelopen kwartaal kwam het EBITDA resultaat uit op $1,905 miljard van $1,763 miljard in dezelfde periode een jaar eerder. Onder aan de streep blijft een nettowinst over van $22 miljoen, terwijl een jaar terug een nettoverlies van $193 miljoen werd geleden toen het bedrijf bijzondere waardeverminderingen moest opnemen ter waarde van $101 miljoen in verband met de kosten geassocieerd met een beeindigd ijzerertsproject.

"De kwartaalresultaten tonen de aanzienlijke verbetering in onze staalactiviteiten die ruimschoots de daling van de ijzerertsprijzen compenseerde...Op basis van de huidige marktomstandigheden, voorzie ik geen verslechtering van onze prestaties in het vierde kwartaal. Als gevolg daarvan zijn we goed gepositioneerd om een EBITDA in het volledige jaar van meer dan $7,0 miljard te behalen", zegt chief executive officer Lakshmi Mittal.

De nettoschuld bedroeg aan het einde van het kwartaal $17,8 miljard, ten opzichte van $17,4 miljard eind juni. ArcelorMittal houdt vast aan zijn doelstelling om op de middenlange termijn een nettoschuld van $15 miljard te bereiken.

De staalleveringen in het kwartaal stegen met 3,9% tot 21,5 miljoen ton.

Voor heel 2014 voorziet het staalconcern een investeringsniveau van ongeveer $3,8 miljard.

Arcelor Mittal sloot donderdag op EUR9,88.

- Door Levien de Feijter; Dow Jones Newswires; +31 20 571 52 00; levien.defeijter@wsj.com

voda 7 november 2014 14:56

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ArcelorMittal vangt impact lagere ijzerertsprijzen goed op - Market Talk

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--ArcelorMittal (MT.AE) heeft de gevolgen van lagere ijzerertsprijzen weten op te vangen met betere staalvolumes en marges, wat leidde tot een EBITDA in het derde kwartaal van $1,9 miljard ten opzichte van de consensus van ongeveer $1,8 miljard, melden analisten van Rabobank. De nettoschuld kwam met $17,8 miljard wel hoger uit dan de $17,0 miljard waar zij op hadden gerekend, vooral vanwege investeringen in het werkkapitaal. Zoals ze hadden verwacht, handhaaft het staalbedrijf de outlook van een EBITDA over 2014 van meer dan $7 miljard. Ze beschouwen het aandeel als een aantrekkelijke investering en denken dat de zorgen over de lage ijzerertsprijzen wellicht wat overdreven zijn. Het advies is buy en het koersdoel is EUR14. Omstreeks 10.00 uur noteert het aandeel 3,7% hoger op EUR10,24, terwijl de AEX met 0,3% stijgt. (LDF)

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com

voda 7 november 2014 14:56

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ArcelorMittal koers omhoog, indrukwekkende staalmarges - Market Talk

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--De koers van het aandeel ArcelorMittal (MT.AE) stijgt, nadat het staalconcern beter dan verwacht heeft gepresteerd in het derde kwartaal en indrukwekkende margegroei heeft laten zien, zegt Seth Rosenfeld van Jefferies. Volgens de analist wordt de groei vooral veroorzaakt door eerdere herstructureringen en een geleidelijke verbetering van de markten. Jefferies verwacht dat Arcelor in 2015 een EBITDA van $7,9 miljard zal behalen en rekent daarbij op een ijzerertsprijs van $75 per ton. Het advies is buy en het koersdoel is EUR13. Omstreeks 10.35 uur noteert het aandeel 3,3% hoger op EUR10,21, terwijl de AEX met 0,3% stijgt. (LDF)

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com

voda 7 november 2014 15:06

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Actiebeweging voor Aperam

NICO BAKKER | VRIJDAG 7 NOVEMBER 2014, 12:46 uur | 341 keer gelezen |

Aperam is een geliefd fonds bij diverse typen beleggers. Buy-and-Hold beleggers beleven dit jaar veel plezier aan dit Aandeel, maar ook voor de actieve swingtrader zijn er mooie kansen. Onlangs vond er een forse correctie plaats vanaf de top op 28,00, maar het fonds bleef keurig in zijn uptrend.

Thans ziet het er naar uit dat we ons op kunnen maken voor een rit richting 26,00. Kijk en leest u met mij mee waarom dit de meest waarschijnlijke koersroute is.

IJzersterke uptrend

Vanaf het moment dat Aperam de blauwe gemiddeldelijn opwaarts kruiste in augustus 2013, is een ijzersterke uptrend van start gegaan. Vooral in de eerste helft van 2014 hebben de bulls uitstekend werk verricht. Zij hebben in deze periode twee ferme +9 swings afgerond en zijn van ruim 12 Euro naar een top op 28,00 in september opgestoomd. De opkrullende gemiddeldelijn onderstreept de sterke positie van de bulls en ook de RSI noteerde lange tijd boven de 50-lijn. Vanaf de top op 28,00 ging er een forse correctiebeweging van start om zo het gat met de gemiddeldelijn te verkleinen. Niet geheel toevallig werd er een bodem gevormd ter hoogte van de sleepkabel op 18,67. De uptrend is hierdoor opnieuw gevalideerd. De laatste weken worden er weer witte candles gevormd en vorige week sprong ook de swingteller met een mooie witte candle op +1. Hierdoor stonden alle indicatoren op groen en verscheen er een UP-status op mijn Dashboard. Deze week krijgt de gestartte upswing vooralsnog geen passend vervolg. De candle kleurt immers zwart en de RSI zakt weer terug richting de 50. Om de upswing meer gestalte te geven, moet er komende week weer een witte candle verschijnen en de RSI loskomen van de 50-lijn. Een actiebeweging richting de weerstandzone op 26 is dan waarschijnlijk, met daarboven zelfs 28,00 als spike-top. Het positieve scenario is valide zolang de koers boven de blauwe gemiddeldelijn noteert op krap 20.

Hoe te handelen?

De vooruitzichten voor Aperam blijven uitstekend, maar hoe speelt u als actieve belegger in op de huidige grafiek? Ik stel het volgende handelsplan voor. Als u de bulls een handje wilt helpen, doet u nu alvast wat aankopen. Als vervolgens komende week een witte candle wordt gevormd, doet u de restant aankopen tot het totaalbedrag dat u wilt investeren. Een tweetraps strategie dus, succes!

Voor grafiek, zie link:

www.belegger.nl/column/2657600/actieb...

voda 7 november 2014 15:35

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Iron ore prices inch down to USD 75 with USD 70 mark in sight

Rot continued in the global seaborne iron ore market with price plummeting by USD 2 per tonne yesterday. Spot iron ore is trading at less than USD 76 per tonne, a fresh five year low and whopping 45% to 55% slump in last 12 months for different type/grades/origin

Iron ore for May delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 2.1% at CNY 506 per tonne and on the Singapore Exchange, the December iron ore contract fell 1.1% to USD 74.70 a tonne.

Despite production cut by several large steel mills, low levels of steel prices in China coupled with cheap stocks at Chinese ports is putting severe pressure on Chinese steel mills as well as iron ore traders, who are already facing serious liquidity crisis

Steel Production - According to China Iron and Steel Association, the large steel producers in China have cut output for the most part of October, due to sluggish domestic demand and government directives to curb pollution ahead of APEC meeting this week and they produced 1.631 million tonnes of crude steel a day on average during last 10 days of October.

Steel Prices – The free fall in domestic steel prices seems to be on hold for some time with WoW gains in scrap, billets and long products at Shanghai although flat products continued weakening in last 7 days

Port Inventories - According to SteelHome, the stocks of imported iron ore at China's ports were 106.3 million tonnes last week up by 23% YoY. It is understood that 60% of stocks are owned by traders and 40% by steel mills. It would be interesting to see if the historic seasonal pattern of ahead of winter in the Northern China would support prices as year comes to an end

Liquidity Crisis - Iron ore financing in China also poses a big price risk and liquidity conditions in the industry are worse than in 2013. Iron ore financing is snowballing into a bigger problem, as steel mills roll over multiple letters of credit to pay for old ones and are forced to sell in the spot market to raise cash, which in turn puts more downward pressure on iron ore. It is understood that market players with good track record need to deposit 20% to 30% with banks for LC opening while the figure is as high as 70% for firms with poor credit record

The above factors have caused historical low iron ore levels which don’t seem to be ending soon although some analysts forecast a rally in the final weeks of this year as mills restock and some high cost mines close. Experts in fact believe that iron ore price levels are likely to drop to USD 70 per tonne by year end on over supply. Morgan Stanley said this week that private iron ore traders in China expect oversupply will drive spot iron ore down further, to USD 70 per tonne by the end of the year, and there is little upside to demand out of China.

Source – Strategic Research Institute

voda 7 november 2014 15:37

0

Severstal announces financial result for Q3 & 9M 2014

Q3 2014 vs. Q2 2014 Analysis:
1. Group revenue increased 2.4% QoQ to USD 2,240 million (Q2 2014: USD 2,187 million) driven by further improvements at Russian Steel on the back of higher share of HVA products sales coupled with marginal price increase;

2. Group EBITDA increased 25.7% QoQ to USD 636 million (Q2 2014: USD 506 million) and Group EBITDA margin grew 5.3 ppts QoQ to 28.4% (Q2 2014: 23.1%), representing the highest level since Q3 2008 and primarily reflecting a combination of ongoing operational enhancements at both Russian Steel and Resources division, a decline in raw materials input costs at our steel operations and further RUB depreciation;

3. Net loss1 of USD 45 million (Q2 2014: net loss1 of USD 661 million), has been primarily affected by FX losses of continuing operations of USD 453 million and a gain on disposal of USD 85 million of the discontinued operation. Adjusting for those non cash items, Severstal would have posted a net profit of USD 323 million (Q2 2014: net profit of USD 206 million excluding FX gain in Q2 2014 of USD 199 million and impairment of USD 1,066 million for continuing and discontinued operations);

4. Continuous robust free cash flow generation of USD 218 million is in line with our key strategic focus (Q2 2014: USD 333 million);

5. Capex2 of USD 181 million, 4.7% lower QoQ (Q2 2014: USD 190 million) reflecting our disciplined approach to investments as well as the completion of the vast share of large scale development projects. The FY2014 capex target has been reduced to USD 868 million, reflecting the disposal of Severstal North America and weaker RUB (the currency in which the majority of our capex is nominated);

6. Recommended record high dividend payment of RUB 54.46 (approximately USD 1.37) per share (including special dividend ) for the nine months ended September 30th 2014, reflecting the previously announced intention to return to shareholders a portion of the SNA sale proceeds via dividends.

9 month 2014 vs. 9 month 2013 analysis:
1. 9 month 2014 revenue decreased 9.0% YoY to USD 6,418 million (9 month 2013: USD 7,052 million) as Russian Steel and Resources experienced lower realized prices and sales volumes YoY;

2. EBITDA increased 23.2% YoY to USD 1,601 million (9 month 2013: USD 1,300 million) driven by strong results from Russian Steel on the back of operational enhancements and lower input costs;

3. 9 month 2014 net loss was USD 807 million (9 month 2013: net profit of USD 157 million) has been impacted by FX losses of continuing operations of USD 593 million, impairments for continuing and discontinued operations of USD 1,091 million and a gain on disposal of USD 85 million of the discontinued operation. Excluding these non-cash items, Severstal would have posted a net profit of USD 792 million (9 month 2013: net profit of USD 431 million, excluding FX losses and impairment for both continuing and discontinued operations);

4. Strong improvement in free cash flow to USD 807 million for 9 months 2014 (9 month 2013: USD 115 million), in line with strategic focus;

5. Capex of USD 622 million for the first nine months of 2014 was 20.7% lower YoY (9 month 2013: USD 784 million), representing 71.7% of the updated FY2014 capex target of USD 868 million.

Source – Strategic Research Institute

voda 7 november 2014 15:39

0

voestalpine reports jump in earnings in the first half of the business year

Highlights;
1. At EUR 5.56 billion, revenue only slightly below the value for the previous year of EUR 5.64 billion (-1.5%);
2. Solid earnings development supported by portfolio adjustments (non recurring effects with EBITDA of EUR 67 million and EBIT of EUR 45 million);
3. Operating result (EBITDA) improved by 11.2% to EUR 757 million;
4. Profit from operations (EBIT) significantly increased, by 12.2% from EUR 396 to EUR 445 million;
5. Rise in EBITDA margin from 12.1% to 13.6%, and EBIT margin from 7.0% to 8.0%;
6. Profit before tax (from EUR 312 million to EUR 392 million) and for the period (from EUR 238 million to EUR 324 million) stepped up by 25.5% and 35.9% respectively;
7. Gearing ratio increased from 47% to almost 59% (calling of hybrid bond 2007);
8. Start of construction for the direct reduction plant in Texas in July as scheduled.

Despite a persistently challenging economic climate, the voestalpine Group posted a largely solid performance during the H1 of the business year 2014 to 2015 (April 1st 2014 to March 31st 2015). The business year started with optimistic economic forecasts for the mature economies and mixed expectations for the emerging markets. However, measured against these expectations, and excepting North America and China, the global economic trend cooled down in the course of the first six months.

Dr Wolfgang Eder, Chairman of the voestalpine Group said that "Nevertheless, in view of the increasingly challenging environment, voestalpine Group performance during the first half of the business year was at a most satisfactory level."

A key reason for this result is the Group's broad geographical base and presence in a wide range of industries. The consistent strategic focus on global quality and technology leadership for demanding niche products, and the focus on consistently lengthening the value chain in all business segments, is a guarantee of success.

Significant improvements in all earnings categories;
At -1.5%, revenue was down slightly, from EUR 5.64 billion to EUR 5.56 billion. This is the result of the closure of standard rail production in Duisburg as of the end of 2013, the resulting decrease in the Metal Engineering Division's delivery volumes and again a weaker price level in a series of business segments, the consequence of continued falling raw materials and pre material costs. The significantly higher operating result (EBITDA), up by 11.2% to EUR 757 million, includes non recurring effects in the Metal Forming Division totaling EUR 66.5 million (including effects relating to the sale of the Flamco Group and the agreement to sell the Plastics Solutions business segment).

Adjusted for these non-recurring effects, EBITDA rose by 1.5%, from EUR 680 million in the previous year to EUR 690 million; as a result the (adjusted) EBITDA margin went up from 12.1 to 12.4%. The (unadjusted) profit from operations (EBIT) rose by 12.2%, from EUR 396 million to EUR 445 million. Adjusted by the non-recurring effect of EUR 45.2 million, EBIT came to EUR 400 million in the first half of 2014/15, corresponding to an increase of almost 1%. The adjusted EBIT margin was therefore at 7.2% (previous year: 7.0%).

Earnings per share increase by 43.5%;
Profit before tax improved even more substantially, with an increase of 25.5% to EUR 392 million (from EUR 312 million). Even after deduction of the non-recurring effect of EUR 45.2 million, profit before tax in the first six months of the current business year was still EUR 347 million, or 11% above the previous year's figure. Profit for the period rose by 36%, going from EUR 238 million to EUR 324 million. Without taking the non-recurring effects (EUR 43.4 million) into account, the adjusted profit for the period is EUR 281 million, also a considerable improvement of around 18% over the previous year. This positive development is primarily the result of the lower financing costs.

Solid position compared to industry competitors;
In its core business segments the voestalpine Group has established a leading position in Europe, both with respect to its profitability as well as its quality and technology leadership. Furthermore, it is world market leader in key business segments. The results of the first half year 2014 to 2015 mirror this development.

Divisions remain stable at a positive level;
In this very inconsistent macroeconomic climate, operational business performance of the voestalpine Group's four divisions was largely stable during the H1 of the business year 2014 to 2015. The Steel Division, which is actively mainly on the European market, profited from continuing high demand from the automotive sector and a recovery in the sector of oil and natural gas transport (pipeline projects), while the remaining market segments, after a mostly stable trajectory in the early part of the year, waned somewhat over the course of the summer months.

The Special Steel Division profited from the prospering markets in the USA and Asia, while the European market was generally subdued over the course of the first six months of the current business year. The Metal Engineering Division continued its positive development. Due to its broad-based positioning and a continuing satisfactory level of demand in practically all business units in the first half of the year, its performance is stable at a high level. In the Automotive Parts business segment, the Metal Forming Division continued its very good performance. However, it has faced a subdued market in Europe for tubes and sections since the early part of the business year.

Outlook for the current business year 2014 to 2015 remains unchanged;
Although during the first quarter 2014 to 2015 the overall economic situation seemed to indicate a stable or even an upward trajectory for the remainder of the year, in the meantime the signs have faded, at least for Europe. This is the result of continuing political and military destabilization in parts of the Middle East, as well as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The economic performance of the USA, in contrast, continues to be strong, and China, too, is succeeding in maintaining stable growth of 7% over the course of the year. In clear contrast, the negative economic development in Brazil and Russia continues.

Source – Strategic Research Institute

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