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Japan's steel imports increase in Sep - JISF

According to data released by Japan Iron & Steel Federation, Japan’s imports of steel products rose to 407,000 tonnes in September up by 16.6% from the previous month.

Meanwhile, the imports of common steel from South Korea totaled 266,000 tonnes, soaring by 22.3% YoY. China exported around 56,000 tonnes of steel products to Japan, surging by 35.8% YoY. Japan’s steel imports from Taiwan dropped by 1.9% to 80,000 tonnes.

During the first nine months, South Korea was the biggest steel exporter to Japan, at 2.51 million tonnes.

Source - www.yieh.com
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South Korea's steel output to increase by 8pct in 2014

According to the report from Posco Research Institute, South Korea’s steel output may rise by 8% to 74.57 million this year, reaching a record high.

POSCO has started up its Gwangyang works for adding up of capacity of 3.3 million tonnes of hot strip mill. Besides, Hyundai Steel also added capacity of 500,000 tonnes a year to its plate mill in Dangjin.

The total flat production may rise by 12% to 44.82 million and its long products also reached 3% to 20.35 million tonnes compared to the previous year.

Source - www.yieh.com
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‘ArcelorMittal SA may cut 200 jobs’

November 10 2014 at 04:28pm
Johannesburg - ArcelorMittal South Africa may cut 200 managerial jobs as the continent’s largest steel producer tries to return to profitability, labour union Solidarity said.

AMSA, as the Johannesburg-based unit of the world’s biggest maker of steel is known, last week sent notices to affected staff at its plant in Vanderbijlpark, about 70 kilometres (43 miles) south of Johannesburg, Solidarity said in an e-mailed statement today.

The letters signal the start of job-cut talks under section 189 of the country’s Labour Relations Act, a process that takes 60 days.

“AMSA indicated in the retrenchment notice that it has been experiencing increased operational difficulties and challenges in recent years,” said Johan Venter, a sector organiser for Solidarity.

Paul O’Flaherty, who was appointed July 1 to replace Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita as chief executive officer of AMSA, is seeking to achieve the company’s first annual profit since 2010 as it battles increases in electricity costs that exceed inflation, plant outages and weak demand in its domestic market.

AMSA spokeswoman Kesebone Maema didn’t immediately answer a call seeking comment. - Bloomberg News

www.iol.co.za/business/companies/arce...
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Adviesverlaging voor ArcelorMittal

MAANDAG 10 NOVEMBER 2014, 11:41 uur | 2574 keer gelezen

De analisten van Theodoor Gilissen verlagen naar aanleiding van de derdekwartaalcijfers van ArcelorMittal hun winsttaxties voor het bedrijf. Het aandeel stond 'Under Review', maar krijgt vandaag een Niet Aanbevolen-advies mee.

Dat meldt analist Joost van Beek vandaag in een update over het aandeel.

Van Beek noemt verschillende redenen voor de verlaging. Zo valt de economische groei van een aantal van de belangrijkste afzetmarkten (Brazilië, Rusland en Oekraïne) tegen. Daarnaast is er overcapaciteit in China, wat door de export de prijzen van onder andere staal en ijzererts onder druk zet.

Verder noemt de analist van Theodoor Gilissen de winstgevendheid van de Mining divisie. ‘Deze divisie is goed voor circa 20 procent van de totale omzet en een kwart van het totale operationele resultaat. De winstgevendheid van deze divisie staat door de gedaalde prijs van ijzererts nu sterk onder druk. De verwachting is dat de prijzen van ijzererts nog wel even onder druk blijven staan door voorgaande overcapaciteit’, aldus Van Beek.

Lagere winstverwachting

De analist verwacht dat de winst van de onderneming zeer waarschijnlijk dit jaar nog niet gedrukt zal worden door herstructureringslasten of additionele afschrijvingen op de productie-infrastructuur. Dit voorziet hij echter wel voor de komende jaren, vanwege overcapaciteit en omdat een deel van de fabrieken niet winstgevend is. ‘Een lastenniveau van 100 miljoen euro lijkt daarbij een minimumniveau.’

Tot slot stelt Van Beek dat de onderneming een te laag rendement op het geïnvesteerd vermogen gegenereert, ‘naar onze schatting is dit 3 tot 4 procent’. Ook denkt de analist dat de consensusverwachtingen te hooggespannen zijn.

Voor 2014 gaat de winsttaxatie bij Theodoor Gilissen omlaag van 0,19 euro naar 0,05 euro. Voor 2015 wordt de winsttaxatie van 0,83 euro verlaagd naar 0,52 euro en voor 2016 van 1,20 euro naar 0,90 euro. ‘Wij verlagen ons advies van Under Review naar Niet Aanbevolen met een koersdoel van 9,50 euro’, aldus Van Beek.

Door Barbara van Cooten
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China's Sept HRC exports hit second highest level

China's exports of hot rolled coil reached the second highest level on record in September, China Customs data showed.

China exported 1.18 million tonnes of hot rolled coil in September up 91.4% YoY and increasing by 7.9% from the previous month. The figure was second only to the peak of 1.20 million tonnes hit in May this year.

The huge export volume in September, which was mainly due to the rebound in China's export price of the product in July, with orders delivered in September, also led to trade frictions with other countries.

China's exports of hot rolled coil surged 80.1 percent on year to 9.1 million tonnes in the first nine months of this year, up 37.3 percent or 2.5 million tonnes versus the total volume it exported in 2013.

China's steel exports have risen sharply amid supply surplus in domestic market. One large-scale steel mill in East China in July set monthly target for hot rolled coil exports at 30,000 tonnes, compared to only 2,000 tonnes to 3,000 tonnes in the past.

China's steel products enjoy price competitiveness in overseas markets and have made great progress in technology and product quality despite some buyers’ doubts over quality stability and services. The high costs for producing hot rolled coil in Southeast Asia and Latin America and inadequate capacity have boosted customers in these countries to increase imports from China, Malaysia for example.

Insiders pointed out despite a potential seasonal decline in September orders, China’s hot rolled coil exports are likely to maintain growth for the remainder of this year owing to stable demand from seaborne buyers, especially from South Korea and Vietnam, two main export destinations for China’s hot rolled coil.

Mexico intended to launch antidumping investigation against imports of hot rolled coil from China, seeking to impose anti-dumping duties of 102.9% on involved products. Meanwhile, Malaysia has made preliminary determination on levying provisional anti dumping duties in the range between 14.87% and 29.37% against hot rolled coil imports from China. The duty was for a period of 120 days with effect from October 17.


According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s hot rolled coil production hit record high of 16.04 million tonnes in September, up 2.4% YoY and a gain of 0.8% from the preceding month. The daily average production in September hit 534,000 tonnes, rising by 4.2% from the previous month. In the first three quarters of this year, China produced 138 million tonnes of hot rolled coil, basically flat from the same period of 2013.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
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EUROFER update steel imports in EU

EU steel imports rose sharply in Q2 2014. While total imports including semis rose 25.5% YoY, finished steel imports grew 33%, with flat product imports rising 28% and long products by a staggering 53%.

The latest customs data for EU 28 third country imports confirm that this trend continued into the Q3 Q3 2014. Finished steel imports rose 28% YoY in Q3 2014. Total steel imports are estimated to have risen by 19% YoY.

This means that the year to date increase in finished steel imports amounts to 21%, with flat product imports growing 16% and long product imports rising 43% YoY. With semis imports also rising, total imports accounted for 19.5% of the EU steel market in Q2 2014. The most affected flat product is quarto plate: imports were up 35% YoY over the first nine months of the year.

While total long product imports rose 43% over this period, imports of rebar grew 83% and merchant bars 35% YoY. The main countries of origin for flat products are China, Russia and the Ukraine, whereas Turkey, China and the Ukraine are the key exporters of long products. Russia and the Ukraine continue to dominate semis exports. With a further increase expected for Q4, total imports are forecast to increase almost 13% in the whole of 2014.

Imports are expected to capture again a significant portion of the EU steel market in 2015 as they are foreseen to be stabilising at the year earlier level. International competition will remain fierce; particularly the commodity segments of the long product market will be affected.

Key factors are slowing constructional steel demand in China and construction investment in the Middle East and North Africa being hampered by geopolitical unrest. As a consequence, it is foreseen that aggressively priced imports will continue to flood the international markets.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Rio Tinto unfazed by falling iron ore prices - CEO

Reuters reported that Global miner Rio Tinto, which gets 92% of its revenue from iron ore, is unfazed by the drop in ore prices and sticking to plans to raise output.

Mr Sam Walsh CEO of Rio Tinto said that the Anglo Australian miner, which rebuffed an approach from commodities trader Glencore Plc in August, is also confident of increasing returns to shareholders at full year results in February adding that it has no plans to cut its 2015 capital spending target of AUD 8 billion.

The spot price of iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI, which traded as high as USD 160 a tonne in Feb 2013, has crashed 40% to hit a five year low of USDD 75. Some analysts expect prices to fall even lower next year as mining majors continue to feed an oversupplied market, even though China is losing economic steam.

But Mr Walsh, who ran Rio Tinto's iron ore business for eight years before taking the top job in 2013, is confident that Rio's production costs of AUD 20.40 a tonne in the first half of 2014, the lowest in the industry, will help it ride out the storm.

He said that "Between me and the current iron ore price there is tier two, tier three and tier four (producers). We have positioned our business to be the lowest cost producer in the world, so I don't think I'll be losing sleep about our iron ore business.

The low production cost had also secured enough margins to materially increase shareholder returns. Rio Tinto is on track to lift output 9% to 290 million tonnes ahead of a push to 360 million tonnes. That ranks the Anglo Australian company number two in size behind Brazil's Vale with BHP a distant third.

Source - Reuters
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Baosteel posts 8pct rise in Jan-Sept net profit

China's Baosteel reported a 7.94% increase in net profit to CNY 5.01 billion in the first three quarters of this year, it said in its Q3 reports. The earnings per share hit CNY 0.30.

The company achieved operating revenue of CNY 143.592 billion in the January to September period, up 0.93% from the same period last year.

In the first nine months of 2014, Baosteel produced 5.129 million tonnes of pig iron and 5.306 million tonnes of crude steel. It sold 5.363 million tonnes of semi finished and finished products.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
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EUROFER update on real consumption of steel in EU

Real steel consumption in the EU contracted by 0.3% YoY in the Q2 of 2014 whereas a moderate increase had been expected. The decline can be largely explained by weaker than expected growth in activity of most steel using sectors as a reaction on the marked YoY rise in output in Q1. This base year effect hampered activity growth in several sectors, although the impact was more pronounced in construction and related sectors. Others sectors such as the automotive industry and the steel tube sector could escape a negative trend in output in the Q2.

Preliminary data for real steel consumption in Q3 2014 signal a marginal YoY rise, in line with business conditions remaining soft amidst falling sentiment and rising uncertainty levels. This trend is seen continuing in the final quarter of this year.

All in all, total real steel consumption in 2014 is currently forecast to be more modest than anticipated earlier, growing by just over 1%, in a reflection of a rather strong first quarter and geopolitical tensions and a slow EU and global economic recovery dragging down growth in the remainder of the year.

In 2015 EU real steel consumption is forecast to gain some strength after a still rather weak Q1 in terms of growth compared with the strong Q1 2014. Activity in the steel using sectors is foreseen to gain momentum as the economic recovery in the EU continues its track of modest but gradual growth and the negative impact of uncertainty and weak sentiment wanes. Negative steel intensity will limit the upward trend though.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Japanese crude steel output expected to raise in Q4

According to statistics released by the Japan Iron & Steel Federation, the output of crude steel will be at 28.25 million tonnes in the Q4 up by 1.3% from previous estimate of 27.88 million tonnes.

METI estimated the common steel output will be increased by 0.5% to 18.87 million tonnes in the quarter ended in December.

On the other hand, Japanese steel mills are going to produce steel products around 12.32 million tonnes for the domestic market and 6.64 million tonnes for steel exports.

Source - www.yieh.com
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Scunthorpe solar energy park could provide power to TATA Steel works

It is reported that plans to build a GBP 25 million solar energy park which could provide green power to the TATA Steel works in Scunthorpe are said to be progressing.

The developers at Kinetica Solar have earmarked 190 acres of the adjoining Raventhorpe Farm at Broughton for the project.

Following the news of the proposed sale of the Scunthorpe steelworks, Mr Nathan Welch, planning director, said that "The benefits of the proposed Raventhorpe Solar Park to provide a local heavy industry plant the means to reduce both its carbon footprint and its overall energy costs remain unchanged.”

Mr Welch said that "The project will deliver up to 38 MW of renewable energy. It will also provide tangible economic benefits to the area, including a number of employment opportunities during the construction phase and an intention by us to source equipment locally, including the steel for the solar panel frames.”

Source - www.scunthorpetelegraph.co.uk

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Japan's Kobe Steel posts profit in H1

It’s reported that Japan’s Kobe Steel released its financial result for the first half ended on September 30th of fiscal year 2014 to 2015.

Kobe Steel posted a net profit of JPY 42.1 billion for the given period of time, up by 4% from the same half of a year ago. At the same time, the company realized consolidated net sales revenues of JPY 916 billion, increasing by 3% YoY.

The company said it will closely monitor the domestic and export market as the business environment is difficult to forecast.

Source - www.yieh.com
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ArcelorMittal update on mining production

Own iron ore production (not including supplies under strategic long term contracts) in Q3 2014 was 15.8 million tonnes, 4.5% lower than 16.6 million tonnes for Q2 2014 due to the rainy season in Liberia and minor operational issues in our Canadian operations, but 6% above Q3 2013, primarily due to higher production from Canadian mining operations following their expansion.

Market price shipments decreased by 4.8% to 10.0 million tonnes in Q3 2014, as compared to 10.5 million tonnes in Q2 2014, primarily driven by seasonally lower shipments from our Liberia mining operations and lower Ukrainian shipments. Shipments at market price in Q3 2014 were 6.3% higher than Q3 2013 primarily due to increased shipments in Canada following the successful commissioning and ramp-up of the expanded concentrator.

EBITDA for Q3 2014 was USD 278 million, 28.4% lower as compared to USD 388 million in Q2 2014, primarily due to lower seaborne iron ore market prices, offset in part by lower costs.

EBITDA for Q3 2014 was lower as compared to USD 533 million in Q3 2013, primarily due to lower seaborne iron ore market prices, partially offset by higher market priced shipments and lower costs.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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Details of ArcelorMittal results for January to September 2014

ArcelorMittal’s net loss for 9M 2014 was USD 0.1 billion, or USD 0.08 loss per share, as compared to net loss for 9M 2013 of USD 1.3 billion, or USD 0.77 loss per share. Total steel shipments for 9M 2014 were 2.9% higher at 63.9 million metric tonnes as compared with 62.1 million tonnes for 9M 2013.

Sales for 9 month 2014 increased by 1.6% to USD 60.6 billion as compared with USD 59.6 billion for 9 month 2013, primarily due to higher steel shipments (+2.9%) and marketable iron ore shipments (+20.1%), offset in part by lower average steel selling prices (-1.3%) and lower seaborne iron ore reference prices (-23%).

In recent years the Company’s maintenance practices have enabled an increase in the useful lives of plant and equipment. As a result of this development, the Company has determined that it is appropriate to extend the useful lives resulting in a lower charge to the income statement. The full detailed review of useful lives of the assets has been largely completed.

Accordingly, depreciation of USD 3.0 billion for 9M 2014 was lower as compared to USD 3.4 billion for 9M 2013. The Company expects the full year 2014 depreciation charge to be approximately USD 3.8 to USD 4.0 billion as compared to USD 4.7 billion in each of 2012 and 2013.

Impairment charges for 9M 2014 were nil. Impairment charges for 9M 2013 were USD 140 million, including USD 101 million for the costs associated with the discontinued iron ore project in Senegal (Mining) and costs related to the closure of the organic coating and tin plate lines in Florange.

Restructuring charges for 9M 2014 were nil. Restructuring charges for 9M 2013 were USD 173 million, including USD 137 million of costs incurred for the long term idling of the Florange liquid phase (including voluntary separation scheme costs, site rehabilitation/safeguarding costs, and take or pay obligations).

Operating income for 9M 2014 was USD 2.5 billion as compared with operating income of USD 1.2 billion for 9M 2013. Operating results for 9M 2014 were negatively impacted by USD 90 million charge following the settlement of US antitrust litigation. Operating results for 9M 2013 were positively impacted by a USD 47 million fair valuation gain relating to the acquisition of an additional ownership interest in DJ Galvanizing in Canada and by USD 92 million of Dynamic Delta Hedge income.

The DDH income recorded in Q1 2013 was the final instalment of such income. This gain on the unwinding of a currency hedge related to raw materials purchases was initially recorded in equity in Q4 2008 and as of Q1 2013 had been fully recorded in the income statement.

Income from investments, associates, joint ventures and other investments in 9M 2014 was USD 208 million, as compared to income of USD 11 million in 9 M 2013. Income in 9M 2014 includes the annual dividend received from Erdemir, improved performance of Spanish investees as well as the share of profits of Calvert operations. Income earned during 9M 2013 was lower primarily due to the payment of contingent consideration related to the Gonvarri Brasil acquisition in 2008 and weaker performance of European associates during the year.

Net interest expense (including interest expense and interest income) was lower at USD 1.1 billion for 9M 2014, as compared to USD 1.4 billion for 9M 2013, following repayment of bonds in Q2 2013 and Q2 2014. The Company now expects full year 2014 net interest expense of approximately USD 1.5 billion rather than the previous guidance of approximately USD 1.6 billion.

Foreign exchange and other net financing costs were USD 1.4 billion for 9M 2014 as compared to costs of USD 1.0 billion for 9M 2013. Foreign exchange and other net financing costs for 9M 2014 include expenses related to the termination of the Senegal greenfield project, non cash gains and losses on convertible bonds and hedging instruments that matured during the period as well as charges related to the federal tax amnesty plan in Brazil linked with the Siderbras case.

ArcelorMittal recorded an income tax expense of USD 196 million for 9M 2014, as compared to an income tax expense of USD 191 million for 9M 2013.

Non controlling interests for 9M 2014 were a charge of USD 97 million, as compared to a charge of USD 59 million for 9M 2013. Non controlling interests charges for 9M 2014 primarily relate to minority shareholders’ share of net income recorded in ArcelorMittal Mines Canada.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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ArcelorMittal advies omlaag naar neutral - Market Talk

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Citigroup heeft het advies voor ArcelorMittal (MT.AE) verlaagd naar neutral van buy aangezien de analisten verwachten dat ijzerertsprijzen in 2015-2016 verder zullen dalen met ongeveer 17%. Ze merken op dat de koers duidelijk gevoelig is voor de ontwikkeling van de ijzerertsprijzen. Het nieuwe koersdoel komt te staan op EUR11. Omstreeks 13.20 uur noteert het aandeel 1,8% lager op EUR9,67, terwijl de AEX met 0,4% stijgt. (LDF)

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com


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ANZ Bank cuts 2015 iron ore price forecast by over 20pct

Reuters reported that Australia's ANZ Bank slashed its 2015 iron ore price forecast to an average USD 78 per tonne from USD 101, citing a mounting supply glut and weak demand for the steelmaking ingredient in China, the world's top importer.

Mr Mark Pervan, ANZ senior commodities strategist said that "A combination of tough government reform, a weak housing market, and increasing supply mean most see little upside in iron ore prices over the next two years."

Mr Pervan said that "Where previously we expected a material rebound rally off an oversold base, we are less convinced steel mills will return to restock. An increasingly cautious demand backdrop and prolonged tight credit conditions means most steel mills are unwilling or unable to rebuild modest iron ore inventories."

The revision puts ANZ, previously among the more bullish on iron ore's prospects of staging a price recovery next year, at the lower end of forecasts. Morgan Stanley this month forecast iron ore would average USD 87 per tonne in 2015, while Goldman Sachs sees a price of USD 80.

Source – Reuters
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European steel market corrects on lower import levels

Price benchmark long and flat products ie rebar and HR posted major dip in Europe last week. Price of both items dipped in important countries in Europe including Germany, Italy and Turkey. However Spanish market was stable

The main reason for correction of domestic rebar prices in Germany and Italy is the onslaught of imported materials, which have gone down by EUR 30 per tonne in Italy and EUR 20 per tonne in Germany over last 30 days to EUR 415 per tonne CFR Italy and EUR 455 per tonne CFR Germany


The story for HR is similar as the import prices have gone down by EUR 12 per tonne CFR Italy and Germany in last 30 days

The correction in domestic rebar and HR prices over last 12 months has altered the historic spread between North and South Europe and the traditional gap between Germany and Italy/Spain has become almost negligible. Another shift has been the traditional difference between domestic and imported prices making short deliver linked premium for domestic mills much lesser

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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China steel futures rebound after export data and assurance from Mr Xi

Reuters reported that Chinese steel and iron ore futures rebounded after losses last week, supported by firm export data from China and comments from President Mr Xi Jinping playing down risks faced by the world's No 2 economy.

The most-traded rebar for May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.1 percent at CNT 2,557 a tonne, after losing 2 percent last week.

The May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 0.8 percent to end at CNY 514 per tonne, after dropping more than 4 percent last week.

Government data showed that China's exports grew 11.6% in October, cooling from a 15.3% jump in September but surpassing forecasts for a 10.6% increase.

Mr Xi told global leaders that while there are indeed risks to the economy, they are not so scary.

Source - Reuters
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EUROFER update on apparent consumption of steel in EU

Apparent steel consumption in Q2 2014 grew 4.4% compared with the same period of last year. The seasonal rise in real consumption in spite of disappointing YoY growth and some further stock building in the steel supply chain explain this rise.

The sharp rise in total imports including semis up 25.5% YoY implies that primarily third country suppliers benefited from the expanding steel demand, whereas the rise in EU deliveries from domestic mills increased by a meagre 1% YoY. Preliminary data and estimates for Q3 2014 indicate that growth in apparent consumption came almost to a halt with YoY rise of just 1%.

This is partly a base year effect: apparent consumption started to improve in the second half of 2013; this limits the potential growth in demand. Moreover, the normal seasonal pattern of demand suggests that the stock cycle will shift into reverse in the H2 of the year following the inventory replenishment in the first half. Soft real steel consumption and continued seasonal destocking are expected to result in a contraction of apparent consumption in the final quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, imports are foreseen to remain on a rising trend over this period which will translate into EU steel producers losing further market share to third country suppliers. All in all, apparent steel consumption is projected to rise 2.6% in 2014, a downward revision compared with the July outlook.

Market conditions are currently foreseen to remain muted in 2015, although a moderate strengthening of demand is to be expected in line with somewhat higher final steel consumption. However, imports are to remain on a high level and increase even slightly further, thereby exerting severe margin pressure on EU steel mills. Apparent steel consumption is seen growing by around 2.5% in 2015.

Source – Strategic Research Institute
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EUROFER update on steel exports in EU

Total steel exports from the EU to third countries grew by 1.1% YoY in the Q2 of 2014.

Customs data for July and August indicate that total exports fell by on average 1.5% YoY over this period. This implies that over the first 8 months of this year, total exports were 1% down on exports in the same period of 2013. While semis exports decreased 4%, flat product exports rose 5% and long product exports fell 7% YoY.

Over the January to August period the EU remained a net steel exporter. Comparable with the situation in 2013, the trade surplus resulted from a trade deficit in semis of 346,000 tonnes per month, a marginal surplus in flat products and a surplus of 485,000 tonnes per month in long products.

Rebar, wire rod and beams remained the most exported long steel products, accounting for some 85% of total long product exports. The key destination for EU exports of long products remained Algeria, but also Turkey, the United States and Switzerland represent relatively important markets for EU steel producers.

The situation with regards to exports is not expected to change during the remainder of 2014. Total EU exports are forecast to stabilise around the year earlier level.

The outlook for 2015 is for a minor increase in third country exports. This reflects an anticipated moderate rise of global steel demand and continued fight for tonnage on the domestic EU market, forcing EU steel producers to find outlets abroad to compensate for the loss of market share on their home markets.

Source – Strategic Research Institute
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