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[verwijderd] 7 april 2011 20:16

Spyker Sabotages Sorry SAAB
Apr. 7 2011 - 1:42 pm | 0 views | 0 recommendations | 0 comments
PASADENA, CA - JUNE 16: Flowers are reflected...

In September 2010 I reported on the difficulties that faced the auto industry. “Auto’s Accounting Agony” September 29th 2010. Not only are the costs of designing, testing and producing a successful new model extremely expensive, the inputs to the value chain in terms of raw materials are on a sky rocketing upward trajectory.

I recall at the time that the harsh and critical comments I made about SAAB drew quite a heated reaction, mostly from die hard SAAB enthusiasts. That is fine as everyone is entitled to their opinion and if I am big enough to write a blog comment in the public domain, then I am more than willing to take some flack.

I wonder though what those that I clearly angered in the past are saying now.?

Production lines at SAAB have shut down again. This is the 4th time in the past 2 weeks. Now this is not just me having a swipe, the credible news agency AFP has reported that SAAB has to halt production until it can stabilize its financial situation. In the past week the auto manufacturer had to cease vehicle production on no less than 3 occasions as suppliers finally snapped at overdue bills for component parts. At the moment the current cessation of activity has no clear end date. AFP reported that SAAB was awaiting an injection of additional funding.

We all know the history so I will refrain from a trip down memory lane but I did express my disbelief at the time Dutch sports car manufacturer Spyker steeped in with a $500m deal that was incredibly based on a loan granted by the European Investment Bank (EIB), and guaranteed by the Swedish government after much debate. If ever there was a deal where a national government was panicked by he prospect of additional unemployment this was it.

In all the years that General Motors owned SAAB it only had one profitable year. In 2010 global sales for the brand slipped to 32,000. This is dire when one realizes that under GM’s stewardship (which I accept was far from perfect), sales used to be in the region of 130,000 units per annum.

At the time I said that if GM with all its knowledge about volume auto manufacture could not help SAAB turn a profit what on earth was Spyker going to do when it only sold extremely expensive cars? Spyker has a history of struggling with debt since it was listed on the Dutch stock exchange in 2004 and sold just 36 cars in 2009.

I said then it would end in tears and failure and I repeat it again now.

Even the sports car core of Spyker has gone now as Spyker Cars agreed in February to sell its sports car business of the same name to a UK holding company, Coventry-based CPP Global Holdings Ltd. CCP will pay an initial €15m for Spyker’s assets, such as intellectual property rights and trademarks. Spyker says this will allow it to allow it fully concentrate running SAAB.

CPP is lead by Russian billionaire Vladimir Antonov and he previously held a 29.9% stake in Spyker; he was obliged to sell this when Spyker bought SAAB.

Spyker has said that it intends to rename itself Swedish Automobile NV, according to the agenda of the company’s annual general meeting. The move is aimed at underlining that the company will focus entirely on its Swedish operations in the future, and is subject to shareholder approval at the AGM, scheduled for May 19th.

Whilst the Dutch car company plays corporate scrabble today from the apparent sole focus of its attention we were treated to the following statement:

“…The interruptions are caused by shortages in material shipments in part related to the tight liquidity situation…The company is confident to soon resume normal operations, with the additional funding that we expect to secure…”

This is just not good enough. SAAB is owned by Spyker which is a publicly traded company. The investment community deserves and should demand far more detail. Who is lending the money and for what period at what rate. What the conditions attached to new capital? Without clarity on this information I can see no reason why any investor would ever seek to hold shares in Spyker until such questions are answered head on. The stock peaked this year at €6.119 on February 2nd. It closed today, April 7th at €.862…down 36.89%!

It is not just a question of plant being closed for a while. Customers awaiting new cars are going to be fobbed off with an excuse to cover the delay. Word will get out and would be buyers will turn elsewhere so that they can get the car they want when they want it. Similarly there will eventually be a squeeze on parts for servicing the models already on the road. In the auto trade a reputation is hard won and lost quickly…it may never be won back. In this case it has gone for good.

So long SAAB…it was nice knowing you.

Stephen Pope ~ MarketMind

[verwijderd] 7 april 2011 21:29

Saab—A Lion Starving to Death?

Swedish auto maker Saab Automobile and its Dutch owner Spyker Cars NV have a liquidity crisis. Production has halted. But opportunistic buyers willing to bottom-fish shouldn’t be shy. Who better than Fiat SpA, then?

You wouldn’t buy Saab as it stands unless you had a plan B up your sleeve. But you might do so if—and only if—any takeover attempt was aimed, say, at swiftly integrating Saab with Chrysler ahead of a likely 2012 float of the latter.

On its own, Saab looks to have very limited chances of survival. Its financials are not encouraging, to put it mildly.

Under a very bullish scenario, we estimate that even at steady normalized long-term 10% growth of sales—a rate never consistently achieved by any auto maker on the planet—combined with a break-even earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2011 and mid-teens operating margin expansion afterwards, the group will not be able to service its debt obligations by 2016. That’s precisely when the majority of its debt comes due, according to Saab’s financials.

More realistically, any viable business plan, in the light of the cyclical nature of the auto business, should hinge on a cash injection.

Working capital analysis based on the 2010 financials doesn’t offer comfort, either. Too much capital is tied up in inventory (days inventory outstanding is 140), which is not offset by receivable and payable cycles, meaning that Saab’s cash conversion cycle is three months—far longer than for any rival.

As remote an option as it may seem, Fiat could strike a deal, structured along the lines of its Chrysler involvement. It could renegotiate the company’s European Investment Bank loan, putting in relatively little money but providing plenty of know-how for a 20% to 30% stake and leadership in the business.

The Italian auto maker is widely expected to increase its stake in Chrysler to 30% and take a majority stake in Detroit’s third largest auto maker in the next twelve months pre-IPO. Admittedly, Saab would be no game changer for Fiat, but it could become a short-term loss leader to help promote both Chrysler and Alfa Romeo, which is attempting a U.S. comeback. Saab offers a decent distribution network in the U.S., with sales of around €160 million (about 19% of total sales), so cross-levering Chrysler/Alfa and Saab’s distribution networks would make sense.

Meanwhile, trimming European exposure (78% of sales at €639 million), would help cut the highly uncompetitive cost base at the Swedish car maker. Its fixed and variable costs structure put it at a disadvantage not only to European mass auto makers, but also premium manufacturers like Daimler AG’s Mercedes and BMW in Germany.

The model pipeline is weak, but Saab brings fleet customers, which constitute a key part of its customer base. Logistically, moreover, Saab is attractive and, perhaps equally importantly, it offers a back door to China, where Fiat has historically struggled to make a breakthrough. On March 25, Saab announced a partnership deal with China Automobile Trading Co. Ltd. Russia is also on Saab’s radar.

The Swedish National Debt Office, which guarantees Saab’s EIB loan facility, is assessing an application from Russian financier and former Spyker shareholder Vladimir Antonov to become an owner in Saab. That, however, will not move the needle at Saab, which needs much larger scale and financial fire-power to compete globally—as was already evident when Spyker’s Victor Muller bought it last year.

“I have compared Saab often to a beautiful lion who grew up in captivity. One day that lion is loaded on to a truck and released in the vast savannahs of Africa. That mighty animal has to learn how to hunt for its own prey and support himself,” Mr. Muller told stockholders in presenting 2010 results.

But Saab needs a partner. Otherwise, the lion will starve to death.

When these figures were put to Saab, the company declined to comment.

blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/04/07/saab%...

AX lover 7 april 2011 23:39

NIks aan de hand mensen, gewoon doorlopen!

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 00:48

A Year After G.M. Unloaded It, Saab Is in Trouble Again
www.nytimes.com/2011/04/08/business/g...

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 08:09

quote:
AX lover schreef op 7 april 2011 23:39:
NIks aan de hand mensen, gewoon doorlopen!

Zo is het! Ze zijn volledig gefinancierd tot 2012 en dan maken ze winst aldus Muller twee weken geleden.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 10:02

´Saab wil onderpand terug van Zweden´
8 april 2011, 9:35 uur | FD.nl

Saab probeert een deel van het onderpand dat de automaker heeft afgegeven aan de Zweedse staat, terug te krijgen. Dat meldt de Zweedse krant Dagens Industri. Dat onderpand kan dan worden gebruikt voor nieuwe leningen, zodat de leveranciers betaald kunnen worden.

www.fd.nl/artikel/21873483/saab-wil-o...

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 10:15

En ondertussen .......

Kon een daytrader met enig lef gisteren, met twee vingers in de neus, toch maar weer mooi 8 à 10% pakken met die hier zo verguisde stukjes!!

APPIE.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 10:17

En Zweden gaat/moet natuurlijk gewoon meewerken!!

APPIE.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 10:33

en had je lef? :-)

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 10:48

quote:
Ursus arctos schreef:
en had je lef? :-)

Goedemorgen Ursus,

Dat beetje lef dat daarvoor nodig was had/heb ik ja.

APPIE.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 10:50

STOCKHOLM (Dow Jones)--De Zweedse overheid zal mogelijk onderpand van Saab Automobile, onderdeel van Spyker Cars nv (SPYKR.AE), vrijgeven, zegt een woordvoerder van de Zweedse autoriteiten vrijdag.

Spyker heeft urgente behoefte aan kasmiddelen om toeleveranciers van de Saab-fabrieken mee te betalen. De productie van Saabs ligt thans stil, omdat toeleveranciers zijn gestaakt in afwachting van betaling.

Het vrijgeven van door Spyker verstrekt onderpand aan het Zweedse National Debt Office, dat staatsgaranties beheert voor de leningen van de Europese Investeringsbank (EIB) aan Saab Automobile, "is een mogelijke oplossing", zegt woordvoerster Marja Lang namens de staatsinstelling tegenover Dow Jones.

De instelling stelt dat een oplossing voor de liquiditeitsproblemen van Saab mogelijk vrijdag gepresenteerd zullen worden. "We denken dat we vandaag iets te melden zullen hebben", aldus Lang.

De Russische financier en voormalig Spyker-aandeelhouder Vladimir Antonov heeft verzocht bij de overheidsinstantie om aandeelhouder in Saab te mogen worden. Antonov, waar General Motors Co. (GM) bij de verkoop van Saab aan Spyker geen zaken mee wilde doen, zou bereid zijn EUR50 miljoen in de Zweedse autoproducent te stoppen.

De koers van Spyker staat vrijdag rond 10.35 uur 1,5% hoger op EUR3,95.

Door Christina Zander; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst; amsterdam@dowjones.com; +31-20-571 5200

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 08, 2011 04:49 ET (08:49 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 11:22

Wordt weer een mooi dagje voor de Spyker Cars stukjes!!

APPIE.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 11:33

Het blijft een bijzonder aandeel. Het bedrijf staat op het punt van omvallen. En de koers stijgt ipv keihard onderuit te gaan. Merkwaardig. Ken niet veel aandelen die zo positief reageren op zeer slecht nieuws.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 11:51

toch wel bijzonder onderpand teruggeven op het moment dat het er steeds sterker uitziet dat er nooit terug betaald gaat worden.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 11:52

quote:
Ksino schreef:
Het blijft een bijzonder aandeel. Het bedrijf staat op het punt van omvallen. En de koers stijgt ipv keihard onderuit te gaan. Merkwaardig. Ken niet veel aandelen die zo positief reageren op zeer slecht nieuws.

Dag Ksino,

Op het punt van omvallen?? Beter wachten we de loop der dingen even af. Mogelijks deze dag nog goed nieuws vanuit Zweden.
Neem nu het premium segment van de gerenommeerde merken, 2 jaar geleden dood gewaand/geschreven door de zelfbenoemde Hellsehers, nu een enorm succes.
Fantasietjes, niets mis mee ......... beter gaan ze niet met u op de loop!!

Succes.

APPIE.

AX lover 8 april 2011 12:06

Blijkbaar heeft Saab dat "waterdichte" businessplan toch al aangepast...

quote:
schreef:
The Debt Office’s latest report on the Saab, which was delivered at the end of February and part of which is public, it appears that last year was a “challenge” for Saab and pointed out that the known fact that it was difficult to start up production again and then restore customer confidence. Furthermore, introduces the Saab’s budget for 2011 and the revised business plan for the years 2012-2017. The old business plan, the GM-term, denominated in dollars, which made it tricky for Swedish manufacturers in view of currency fluctuations. The new one is expressed in kronor.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 12:24

quote:
APPIEZELF schreef op 8 april 2011 11:52:
[...]

Dag Ksino,

Op het punt van omvallen?? Beter wachten we de loop der dingen even af. Mogelijks deze dag nog goed nieuws vanuit Zweden.
Neem nu het premium segment van de gerenommeerde merken, 2 jaar geleden dood gewaand/geschreven door de zelfbenoemde Hellsehers, nu een enorm succes.
Fantasietjes, niets mis mee ......... beter gaan ze niet met u op de loop!!

Succes.

APPIE.

Als een bedrijf op het punt beland dat er niet meer aan de financiele verplichtingen kan worden voldaan, dan is er toch echt iets goed mis.

Het is dan zeker niet ondenkelijk dat het kan omvallen. Er kan zich een kettingreaktie voordoen dat vele , zo niet alle leveranciers voortaan vooraf of direct willen worden betaald. Hierdoor verergerd het probleem nog meer.

Normale reaktie van de koers hierop moet zijn dat hij daalt. En zeker niet stijgt.
Vandaar mijn verbazing over het koersverloop.

[verwijderd] 8 april 2011 13:08

Spyker Cars vandaag + 15%?? .... + 20%?? ..... Ach wat doet een procentje meer of minder nu er ook toe ..... op weg naar de dubbele cijfers voor de komma!!

Eenieder veel wijsheid en succes gewenst.

APPIE.

diederique 8 april 2011 13:42

Swedish defence contractor Saab AB doesn't want Spyker Cars, owner of the similarly named Swedish automaker, to have Saab in its new name. Meanwhile, Saab assembly lines remain idle amid continued negotiations with suppliers.

www.thelocal.se/33074/20110407/

AX lover 8 april 2011 13:59

Muller heeft iig een Zweedse regeringscrisis veroorzaakt.

quote:
schreef:
The government in emergency session on Saab
Updated 2011-04-08 12:46

The government is now in a meeting and discuss a quick resolution of Saab Automobile's financial problems. Discussions about the rapid increase Saab's working capital by 400-600 million so that suppliers will get their money and production in the Trollhättan factory to start up next week.

There is considerable pressure on Finance Minister Anders Borg and Minister for Enterprise and Energy Maud Olofsson to solve Saab's financial problems.

The Debt Office has divided its work into two parts. They have snabbutrett the short-term problems with Saab as either a government guarantee for loans or dispose of part of the collateral that the state has so far been confiscated.

The long-term problems of Vladimir Antonov as a partner to 30 percent of Saab and with a capital of 500 million will take another one or a few weeks.

"We do it as fast as we can and have divided the work into a plan A and B and a plan, " said Marja Long, Head of Debt Office.

di.se/Default.aspx?sr=6&tr=286898...

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